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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#341

Post by sidlls »

staticassertion wrote: post #274
sidlls wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the shift to remote work is temporary. There will almost certainly be a relatively large crash in commercial real estate, but it will recover, probably within a year or maybe two.

It doesn't seem that way. Technology is making it more and more possible, companies like Dropbox, which have never supported remote work, are even shifting over.

I'd bet within a year or maybe two tops that the vast majority of "permanent" remote companies will have reverted to be mostly or entirely on-premise again. One or two might last, but most won't.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#342

Post by astura »

freehunter wrote: post #33
gruez wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is mainly a concern for one year leases that were renewed this March/April/May, which won't be renewed in 2021 Do leases tend to get renewed in Q2?

If they signed a 12 month lease in Q2, then yes.

Around here commercial leases on office buildings are typically seven years.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#343

Post by tomcam »

part1of2 wrote: post #325
temp667 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a family member who works at walgreens. The theft is incredible. In the bay area and particularly SF this is not one or two candy bars a week theft. In SF, if you stop a shoplifter and they are hurt, if they are in a protected class etc, it's game over for you as an employee and possibly the store. Even if you stop someone, even if police come and arrest, DA is never going to prosecute. If they do prosecute, i…

I bet prices just go up store-wide to cover, and even higher on items where the cost is more asymmetric (prescriptions)

No. They just close the stores.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#344

Post by lsllc »

meddlepal wrote: post #156
jelling wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in NYC and lots of friends have left town for upstate New York or similar places. But I'm waiting to see how great they think these places are after they have eaten at the same 5 restaurants for a year. And once live culture returns to NYC and other places, how will they feel then? Of course, the other way to look at the de-campers is that they were going to move to the burbs inevitably. Which good for them, b…

I feel like comments like this often lack perspective. Upstate NY, especially Buffalo and Rochester have plenty of things to do in them and far more than five restaurants. It strikes a nerve with me because in Massachusetts a similar sentiment is expressed by Boston-Cambridge folks about Lowell, Worcester, and other periphery cities. Its simply mot true that these places are devoid of culture snd cuisine and in the a…

The reality is, unless you're really in the sticks, there are probably some reasonable, if not pretty good restaurants around. Case in point: Amherst MA, college town, tons of great restaurants that probably equal Cambridge or Somerville (not in quantity, but maybe quality). Also some pretty interesting places in both Holyoke and Northhampton MA.

In fact some of the best food & drink I've had was in parts of Nebraska & Missouri and Wisconsin. You absolutely don't need to be in the city to get good food & entertainment.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#345

Post by SilasX »

dredmorbius wrote: post #318
SilasX wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At risk of extreme naivety, why do failed real estate investments merit Fed support and attention? I thought they were just for maintaining a sound dollar and liquidity and the financial system, not charity for real estate kings.

The Federal Reserve manages both the money supply and unemployment, generally against GDP growth targets. Real estate --- residential, commercial, and industrial --- is among the largest asset classes in the financial system, and it acts as collateral and backing of loans and other financial instruments. Those in turn affect banks and their own ability to generate loans, themselves much of the total money supply. Whe…

Propping up assets isn’t in their mandate though.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#346

Post by fredophile »

cm2187 wrote: post #184
kristopolous wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other week I was on real estate sites and I saw a bunch of "apartments" in SOMA that just looked like offices with some hastily slapped on anemities, as if there was some "wink wink nudge nudge" going on and they had to call the place an "apartment" for some city ordinance but everyone knew it was an office. However, I realized it was exactly the opposite. These people were taking their office spaces and desperat…

Looking at an office tower and a residential tower being built side by side by my window. I would never live in a converted office building. The resi tower has concrete separations between floors and if you are lucky, between flats on the same floor. Office buildings don’t have any real separation between floors as you are supposed to walk on accessible fake floors and have fake ceilings too. The sound insulation bet…

I've seen one of the offices where I work while it had the ceiling removed for renovations. There were probably 4 feet of space between the ceiling and the floor above. I've also seen the same thing in my apartment and there was about 1 foot of space. I don't think noise will be an insurmountable problem.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#348

Post by clams »

sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

I would love real estate markets to crash in SF and NYC. My body is fucking ready.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#349

Post by thatguy0900 »

paul_f wrote: post #283
albacur wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might require the added context of living here. San Francisco has one of the highest property crime rates in the United States [1], and Walgreens is a popular target of shoplifters, who regularly clear out entire shelves of merchandise. The company hasn't come out and said it, but some believe that rampant shoplifting is a reason why eight Walgreens locations in the city have been permanently closed [2]. [1] https…

Proposition 47 essentially decriminalized shoplifting. Californians literally voted for this petty crime wave. As a Florida resident, all I can say is, y'all have fun with that

When I read about them moving to states like Texas in numbers, all I can think is that they will inevitably try to take these same policies with them when they find out wherever they moved too isn't quite liberal enough

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#350

Post by stjohnswarts »

idoh wrote: post #21
Redsquare wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where would be the demand for thousands of extra apartments if folk are mostly remote?

Before covid rents in SF were among the highest in the world, which implies very high demand. I’m confident that many people still want to live in SF, e.g. single people like to cluster next to other single people. In other words working in tech is a draw but not the only draw for living in SF or any other urban area.

All the data I've read says they still are and landlords are still holding out for a covid fix (via vaccines I get) and overall rent has only fallen 5 or 6 %
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