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An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

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341–350 of 359 posts

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#341
post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Smart money can sell tethers I don’t think that many people are really holding onto tethers all that much; who has tethers to sell? Bitfinex itself?

Current issuance of tethers is ~$850m, according to the story told by Tether/Bitfinex, these should be held mostly by users. There’s no reason for exchanges to hold (unless they were buying for their own account).

Presumably when redeemed for money they go back to tether/bitfinex?

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#342
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Futures coming soon. Look what happened to subprime when it became possible to go short.

it wasn't possible to short subprime in the past?

Nobody did it until someone did. Then it went big! For reference watch the movie: The big short.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#343
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, housing crashed when lots of people who had bought housing on credit turned out to be unable to service the debt. I don't think there's a similar scenario with bitcoin. On the other hand, a large secular demand will always exist for housing. The same is not true for bitcoin.

I think there is always a demand to instantly transmit value across any distance or borders, which cryptocurrencies do very well as long as they have any value at all.

At least for Bitcoin, it’s going to be cheaper and easier just to go to a traditional bank or money transfer company. Unless you somehow have a notion that using it will hide the money from the taxman...

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fraction reserve lending doesn't mean "for every 1 dollar deposited inside, bank can give away 5 dollars worth of credits to other people" - it means that if people deposit 5 dollars, you can give away 4 dollars of them as loans and only keep 1 dollar in reserves (as opposed to keeping all 5). It still has to have more assets than liabilities, except that some of those assets can be not available on demand, but loans…

The banking system can expand an initial deposit of $100 into a maximum of $1,000 at a 10% reserve ratio when subsequent loans are re-deposited. ($100+$90+81+$72.90+...=$1,000). This all gets counted as M1 money.

Just for reference, M1 of the US Federal Reserve is $3 trillion. Compare this to the US national debt of $14 trillion or the GDP of $19 trillion.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fraction reserve lending doesn't mean "for every 1 dollar deposited inside, bank can give away 5 dollars worth of credits to other people" - it means that if people deposit 5 dollars, you can give away 4 dollars of them as loans and only keep 1 dollar in reserves (as opposed to keeping all 5). It still has to have more assets than liabilities, except that some of those assets can be not available on demand, but loans…

The banking system can expand an initial deposit of $100 into a maximum of $1,000 at a 10% reserve ratio when subsequent loans are re-deposited. ($100+$90+81+$72.90+...=$1,000). This all gets counted as M1 money.

Yes, the total supply of funds in circulation is increased by making it circulate; however, this question was about solvency. We're not expecting Tether to hold 800m in liquid reserves, but we definitely are requiring Tether to have 800m in assets (as they claim to do) and to demonstrate that it really is so.

The claims others have on you must be balanced by claims you have on others, otherwise you're defrauding your depositors; and if you want to accept money from the public, your words can't be taken at face value but need to be verified (and publicly supported) by trusted, independent external auditors.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#346
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even IF Tether is NOT running a fraud, the arbitrage positions that automatically exist between Bitcoin and any tether are real and do create incentive to create an arbitraged feedback loop whereby a pegged tether between Bitcoin - any_generic_tether - USD does exist and self feeds, driving up Bitcoin exactly as the author contends may be happening with the current Tether. This purported mechanism needs a more thor…

Tether price is 80cents. Person trades bitcoin for tether. Person redeems tether for $1, profiting 20cents. Tether issues more (fraudulent, not backed) currency. Repeat.

Which markets confuse tethers with USD? They are clearly two different assets. The former is a private currency, issued by a company and redeemable in USD, while the latter is the USD that the former IOU is denominated in.

I see how this would affect the price of bitcoins in tethers, but not how it would affect the price of bitcoins in USD (unless the market, as a whole, conflates the two).

Also, where do these alleged arbitrageurs redeem their tethers? As I understand it, the corporation that issues tethers was cut off from doing international wire transfers, thus rendering tethers irredeemable.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#347
post #327

If your anxious about things going to crash because of tethers the best way you can hedge against the volatility is watch the markets like a hawk lol. Can be very profitable too with all the volatility Checkout the live charts and forecasts at https://bitbank.nz

Problem is there's no safe rail to exit a position.

You can sell to USD but can't withdraw overnight and deposit in the morning so you're exposed to counterparty risk which in the crypto sphere is enormous.

Only safe position is to be out of this market currently.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#348
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like how they say "may add"... haha, they always add it! I assume they're talking about the GDAX order book but if you watch the live coinbase price data on tradingview.com and try to buy bitcoin on casebase at the exact same time, it's always a little higher on coinbase.com (about 0.5% higher from my experience). I wouldn't mind if they weren't also charging an additional ~4% fee on top of that.

So that's more fee than the worst wire transfer or credit card currency exchange?

Definitely more than a wire transfer, but I'm not sure where else to buy with a credit card at a lower fee. Buying instantly at a known price is much better than a wire transfer that comes through in 2-3 days -- who knows what the price will be when it comes through!

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#349
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Futures coming soon. Look what happened to subprime when it became possible to go short.

it wasn't possible to short subprime in the past?

You can't short real estate easily because it's a physical thing. Subprime was bonds that were secured by mortgage loans on real estate. You can short bonds but it's not easy because you have to find some to borrow. But then someone invented credit default swaps for subprime bonds. CDS are derivatives insuring bonds from default. They are similar to futures by being a 2 sided contract where cash flows between the two parties and the winner pays the loser the difference. One side is long and the other short. In subprime they took it a step further and made packages of these CDS contracts so you could go short a ton of subprime all at once. These instruments coming out coincided with the top of the real estate market in 2005 and their peak popularity was at the peak of the subprime boom in 2007.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#350
post #149

I found this comment, by Richard Berger on SeekingAlpha, compelling: > STOP! and think about what this author has revealed. Even IF Tether is NOT running a fraud, the arbitrage positions that automatically exist between Bitcoin and any tether are real and do create incentive to create an arbitraged feedback loop whereby a pegged tether between Bitcoin - any_generic_tether - USD does exist and self feeds, driving up B…

That author is plain wrong and shows deep ignorance about bitcoin and the crypto-market. An unsustainable price of bitcoin will lead to the collapse of other exchanges since people cashing out on these exchanges requires enormous amount of real money. This will create a situation where the price of bitcoin in Bitfinex is higher than other exchanges by a big gap. This is not the case, actually the opposite is true: Bi…

ZeroHedge recently had an article posted here showing that there were just $6bn of actual inflow into Bitcoin go account for its $330bn market cap. Thoughts on that?
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