Live data from Hacker News

An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

bloomberg.com

141–150 of 359 posts

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because you can't lend out a Bitcoin you don't have, unlike fiat currency.

Couldn't they do it partially by betting that not all their customers would withdraw their funds simultaneously? Lot of less technically inclined people seem to keep their coins on one exchange like Coinbase

Good point. I am taking for granted that people will have their coins in their wallets, and lot just leave them up on an exchange.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#142

I found this comment, by Richard Berger on SeekingAlpha, compelling: > STOP! and think about what this author has revealed. Even IF Tether is NOT running a fraud, the arbitrage positions that automatically exist between Bitcoin and any tether are real and do create incentive to create an arbitraged feedback loop whereby a pegged tether between Bitcoin - any_generic_tether - USD does exist and self feeds, driving up B…

I can't wrap my head around this. Who is silly enough to sell bitcoins for 'worthless' Tether?

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#143
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I follow.. There is no BTC-USD tether? USDT is tethered to USD.

There doesn't need to be an official BTC-USD tether, BTCUSD on bitfinex is exactly that in practice and in fact.

That's not a tether though, that's an exchange rate.

A tether is like a fixed (pegged) exchange rate[1], where there is an arbitrage opportunity. But that's not BTC-USD.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed_exchange-rate_system

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#144

I'm not sure but, isn't this how the real banks operate, too? For example let's take a legal, legit, Bank named X in a country. If all the account owners wanted to retrieve their money, at the same time: can that bank serve that demand? Because normally for every 1 dollar deposited inside, bank can give away 5 dollars worth of credits to other people. (the ratio changes in every country probably). So accusing a virtu…

You guess wrong. If a bank does not have enough liquid capital, it can borrow from the central bank. If the value of its deposits exceed the value of its loans, it’s insolvent. Stockholders lose everything. Depositors are insured up to $250,000, which is enough to prevent them from participating in bank runs.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement that "this is impossible with bitcoin" is false. While initially bitcoins are issued as proof of work, as soon as there is a somewhat liquid secondary market then bitcoin becomes a financial asset with a value determined by the market. That value is effectively completely indepdent of any "inherent value" and fully determined by supply and demand

> fully determined by supply and demand With bitcoin you cannot manipulate the supply, therefore you can't magically create $800M out of thin air.

Not true. A simple recipe for manipulating Bitcoin supply by acting as a bank:

1. Create accounts for customers. Balances are private and not connected to wallets

2. Keep Bitcoins used to cover the accounts in a single bank wallet.

3. Rely on the observation that customers won't withdraw all their Bitcoins at the same time and use bank wallet for trading in the bank's name.

This is basically how every normal bank in the world operates, except that the amount of money the have to keep in reserve is heavily regulated so that this scheme does not turn into an infinite pool of money. There is no such regulation for cryptocurrencies.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#146
post #142

I found this comment, by Richard Berger on SeekingAlpha, compelling: > STOP! and think about what this author has revealed. Even IF Tether is NOT running a fraud, the arbitrage positions that automatically exist between Bitcoin and any tether are real and do create incentive to create an arbitraged feedback loop whereby a pegged tether between Bitcoin - any_generic_tether - USD does exist and self feeds, driving up B…

I can't wrap my head around this. Who is silly enough to sell bitcoins for 'worthless' Tether?

People without USD accounts. To them selling for USD is just getting them a promise of USD which they're never going to cash out anyway.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because you can't lend out a Bitcoin you don't have, unlike fiat currency.

Couldn't they do it partially by betting that not all their customers would withdraw their funds simultaneously? Lot of less technically inclined people seem to keep their coins on one exchange like Coinbase

But then if this was true, that would mean the real bitcoin supply is actually worth more than it is now.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#148

When something doesn't make sense, usually it's because information is missing. Every market participant knows that Tether doesn't prove their reserves, and yet the market exchange rate to USD stays in a tight band between 0.98 and 1.02 across multiple exchanges. If the market doesn't trust Tether, then it should trade at a deep discount to USD, not at parity. Similarly, the conventional wisdom says cryptocurrencies…

Your claim is one that the market should be efficient, and thus, there must be missing info. Remember that markets are only efficient if P = NP. (Strong form efficiency is impossible, and weak form efficiency is only possible if P = NP).

So, IMHO, the most likely possibility is simply that your market is inefficient.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#149

I found this comment, by Richard Berger on SeekingAlpha, compelling: > STOP! and think about what this author has revealed. Even IF Tether is NOT running a fraud, the arbitrage positions that automatically exist between Bitcoin and any tether are real and do create incentive to create an arbitraged feedback loop whereby a pegged tether between Bitcoin - any_generic_tether - USD does exist and self feeds, driving up B…

That author is plain wrong and shows deep ignorance about bitcoin and the crypto-market.

An unsustainable price of bitcoin will lead to the collapse of other exchanges since people cashing out on these exchanges requires enormous amount of real money.

This will create a situation where the price of bitcoin in Bitfinex is higher than other exchanges by a big gap. This is not the case, actually the opposite is true: Bitstamp, Gdax, and Gemini prices where higher for substantial durations in the last few weeks.

You can only artificially pump the price to an unsustainable high for a very short period of time (2013/mtgox) or have this market restricted (no withdrawals/deposits, etc...). However, this is not the case. You can withdraw/deposit to bitfinex and their coldwallet shows 1.6bn usd worth of bitcoins.

TL;DR: The author fits the "butt-hurt" category, refuses to accept the reality and tries to find non-real argument for his hypothetical flash crash.

Disclosure: I currently hold no Bitcoin but some bitcoin cash positions. I also think the market is in a bubble. But a bubble with real people dollars flowing in.

Re: An $814M Mystery Near the Heart of the Biggest Bitcoin Exchange

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fully determined by supply and demand With bitcoin you cannot manipulate the supply, therefore you can't magically create $800M out of thin air.

that's not how markets work. bitcoin has no intrinsic value, just a exchange rate with other things

that is exactly how markets work.

> bitcoin has no intrinsic value, just a exchange rate with other things

1. It has proof-of-work, which gives it value 2. Supply of the coin and demand for the coins determine the price.

The only thing that can vary widely is the demand, the supply cannot be fucked with (unlike fiat currency). It is impossible for whole bunch of new coins to suddenly appear out of thin air. There is no way to artificially inflate the supply.

Post reply on HN