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Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

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Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#331

Post by the_why_of_y »

fredm-de wrote: post #322
chmaynard wrote: post #316

I'm not qualified to judge whether Piketty is correct but I can offer this analogy. In the past, when I have loaned money to friends and family, my attitude was "kiss the money goodbye". If the money was spent wisely and served a useful purpose, I was happy. It's nice to get repaid, but it's not essential.

Here's the problem: Merkel can't politically justify to give Greece more german taxpayer money because it isn't spent wisely. After 5 years of crisis, Greece still has a primary deficit, while maintaining more extensive welfare programs than most EU Members. Even in the case of debt forgiveness, they would still have a massive household deficit and be in the same situation again soon. So it's not about getting money…

> After 5 years of crisis, Greece still has a primary deficit,

Greece had a primary surplus in 2014.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece-revises-down-2014-prima...

> while maintaining more extensive welfare programs than most EU Members.

What extensive welfare programs would that be? The 12 months of unemployment insurance? They don't even have a means-tested program to ensure a subsistence minimum for people younger than 45 years!

http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/governa...

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#332

Post by cb18 »

MaulingMonkey wrote: post #294
cb18 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it is a little déclassé or something to talk about downvotes, but that above post seems to be racking up about 1 every 5 min for that past 40 minutes. So as I think I pretty civilly and clearly laid out my reasoning for why I think it is an important topic to discuss, and so many of you feel strongly enough about it to downvote, maybe one or two of you wouldn't mind to put your thoughts into words? edit: Also,…

> So as I think I pretty civilly and clearly laid out my reasoning for why I think it is an important topic to discuss, and so many of you feel strongly enough about it to downvote, maybe one or two of you wouldn't mind to put your thoughts into words? I think dang already laid out reason enough already. But hell, I'll add more fuel to the fire... > [...] I did position myself pretty far to one side of an interpretiv…

"You elicited a response alright. But not a good one" There was actually a marked reverse in the downvotes after posting the post to which you responded, I appreciate your response by the way.

'admits you knew that it was "a bit of a stretch"' That post was a bit of a stream of consciousness, if you read to the end you might have noticed that I made the point that this is actually a hugely relevant matter to any discussion of the future Eurozone economy.

'Well, there's playing devil's advocate,' If you care to look into the scope and details of the matter you'll see that the original characterization was not particularly far off. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/closing-... http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9560982/the-invasion-of-...

I don't buy the "poisoned well" argument, or see how this is a "negative wasted opportunity for discussion." We are adults and should be able to have a rational conversation on important matters even if the initial statements are not in sync with our own views, instead of dismissing it out of hand and characterizing it with boogeyman words, "xenophobia," "xenophobic," literally describing it as fully on one side of the good/bad dichotomy in the christian belief system.

"Dang pointed out that it wasn't."

Yes, on the content of his reply it appeared people were missing the main point, how this is clearly tied to people wanting to defend their nation and economy(nationalism,) because it was necessary to touch on some of the obscene aspects of what is occurring to make the point. I sought to clarify.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#333

Post by cm2187 »

fiatjaf wrote: post #315
cm2187 wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France for instance has a primary deficit: https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=325.GFS.A.... I.e. the state budget is in deficit even before the interest on the debt. So it borrows just to repay the interest plus that primary deficit. These countries are not in default but they are definitely broke and reliant on debt to an insane level.

I agree that almost all countries in the world are in an insane situation, but that's still not a Ponzi scheme. They can repay the debt if they want, they have other sources of income other than loans -- and these are still much larger than these loans they take every year plus interest --, namely their taxpayers pockets. I agree that this is not good, not fair, and that it should be a crime to get other people's mon…

They cannot repay this debt. France debt to gdp is reaching 100%. They cannot even gather the political steam to stop increasing their debt, and they have a pension wall coming their way, an ageing population, an increasingly illiterate and unemployed youth. This debt will never be repaid.

And like all individuals who keep borrowing more to sustain their life style, and who use the credit card to repay the interest on their loan, it stops when creditors loose trust in them and stop bringing fresh money. And then it collapses. It is an almost identical mechanism than a ponzi scheme.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#334

Post by allendoerfer »

netcan wrote: post #324
allendoerfer wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany does pay the most in absolute terms. This does nothing to the fact that the Troika is not mostly German. I do not think that HN is a place for these kinds of polemic arguments. Lets leave them to the right wing eu-critics that try to built up enemy stereotypes. Angela Merkel is not part of the Troika. Angela Merkel plays a prominent role in the debate because she is the unofficial leader of the northern state…

I wasn't trying to be polemic, it's just easier to understand "Germany" than "Troika", since there's an obvious public purse and a visible public figurehead to attach to in your mind's eye. Also, there is more to it than polemics. I think Germany's political traditions and biases largely driving these policies and also their interests (as direct lenders and as the country housing the interested banks). Angela Merkel…

It is simply not true, that this whole debate is about Germany vs. Greece. Greek media and Greek demonstrators created it and the German yellow press and right-wing parties gladly answered. If you have the same narrative than these guys, you are by definition being polemic.

In reality though there are Eastern European with lower standards of living than Greece that had a hard time getting these measures through parliament but ultimately took part in the rounds, too.

Germany is because of its size the biggest actor in most European things, that does not make them German.

I do not think the concept of a Troika of a central bank, the European government and the International Monetary Fund is that hard to understand, either.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#335

Post by socialist_coder »

cuillevel3 wrote: post #329
socialist_coder wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That Wikipedia article says that Germany did not fully pay its debt to Greece. So, I don't see your point. If Greece was not on the Euro, it would simply print money and inflate its currency until it could easily pay off it's debts. That gives you the same result as what Germany did, which was to basically only pay off some of their debt and just forget about the rest. The debtors lose, but hey, that's the risk for l…

Sure there is some debate about a possible debt from Germany to Greece for crimes committed in WW2. That's a big discussion by itself. Doesn't change the fact that the original article ignores the Marshal Plan. Anyways if Greek was not in the Euro it could devalue its currency. Which would benefit their exports, if they had any. However their debt would still be payable in Euro and the new currency would have a terri…

> However their debt would still be payable in Euro and the new currency would have a terrible exchange course.

Ahh, I didn't realize this, but yeah, you're right. The debt would stay in Euros...

Or would it? Maybe you switch to a new currency at 1:1 (at the start, of course it drops immediately) and your debt uses the new currency too? Who knows

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#336

Post by dragonwriter »

cuillevel3 wrote: post #329
socialist_coder wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That Wikipedia article says that Germany did not fully pay its debt to Greece. So, I don't see your point. If Greece was not on the Euro, it would simply print money and inflate its currency until it could easily pay off it's debts. That gives you the same result as what Germany did, which was to basically only pay off some of their debt and just forget about the rest. The debtors lose, but hey, that's the risk for l…

Sure there is some debate about a possible debt from Germany to Greece for crimes committed in WW2. That's a big discussion by itself. Doesn't change the fact that the original article ignores the Marshal Plan. Anyways if Greek was not in the Euro it could devalue its currency. Which would benefit their exports, if they had any. However their debt would still be payable in Euro and the new currency would have a terri…

> It's still unclear if a state can actually default.

Its happened numerous times in the past, so its eminently clear that it can actually happen.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#337

Post by minot »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #87
pooper wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure you can do better than that as a student of economics...

Of course I can. But I don't need to. If someone says the sky is green with no justification or explanation, do I need to write a paragraph about why it's not green?

I guess inflation is tax on those who hold cash. Inflation is tax on people who hold cash (or are on a fixed income that will not go up as inflation drives prices up). My thought was that inflation hurts the poor the most. If someone is rich, they probably hold more than just bank notes and government bonds. They hold controlling interests in the markets. As inflation goes up, they will hurt but the rich will not hurt as much as the poor will.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#338

Post by cuillevel3 »

dragonwriter wrote: post #336
cuillevel3 wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure there is some debate about a possible debt from Germany to Greece for crimes committed in WW2. That's a big discussion by itself. Doesn't change the fact that the original article ignores the Marshal Plan. Anyways if Greek was not in the Euro it could devalue its currency. Which would benefit their exports, if they had any. However their debt would still be payable in Euro and the new currency would have a terri…

> It's still unclear if a state can actually default. Its happened numerous times in the past, so its eminently clear that it can actually happen.

Yes you are right. I meant if a state can get out of his financial obligations by defaulting. I read somewhere there is nothing like personal bankruptcy for states. Argentina even lost a court case?

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#339

Post by Djeman »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #283
Djeman wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait a minute. Isn't Greece a democracy with government responsible to citizens? Greece gov has been spending for decades on military and no one argued with that while credit cards worked.

That's a good question, is it? Are any other modern countries? One of the things people have been laughing at the Greeks for is that they don't even have a Cadastre listing who owns what land. Apparently this is proof the Greeks are all lazy, tax-avoiding thieves. In Scotland they're trying to achieve the same thing as they only know who owns about a quarter of the country. Unfortunately the very rich aristocrats who…

Of course it is a proof the Greeks are lazy, tax-avoiding thieves. They don't care about Cadastre. They're on the streets for their comfy government jobs and social benefits.

Please don't sell me that socialist BS. I live in ex-socialist country and there is always trash talk about elites, aristocrats and capitalism on our long coffee breaks but guess what? You know what those people cry for? Socialist dictators and God-All-Mighty state.

Grow up. It is your fault mostly.

Re: Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

#340

Post by ZeroGravitas »

Djeman wrote: post #339
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a good question, is it? Are any other modern countries? One of the things people have been laughing at the Greeks for is that they don't even have a Cadastre listing who owns what land. Apparently this is proof the Greeks are all lazy, tax-avoiding thieves. In Scotland they're trying to achieve the same thing as they only know who owns about a quarter of the country. Unfortunately the very rich aristocrats who…

Of course it is a proof the Greeks are lazy, tax-avoiding thieves. They don't care about Cadastre. They're on the streets for their comfy government jobs and social benefits. Please don't sell me that socialist BS. I live in ex-socialist country and there is always trash talk about elites, aristocrats and capitalism on our long coffee breaks but guess what? You know what those people cry for? Socialist dictators and…

You can be socialist and selfish and still be in favour of a Cadastre, since you personally are unlikely to own the land. Lazy, selfish people should support knowing who owns all the land, because that tells you who to tax efficiently via a Land Value Tax. Unless they are lazy, selfish people who already know who own the land, because it's them that owns it. Which brings us back to powerful elites, which you think don't exist for some reason. Your ex-socialist state must have been an extreme outlier both then and now if it doesn't have them.
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