331–340 of 534 posts
Yeah I think there are ways to know, ways involving less dependence on a LLM.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The other half of the moat is the data they stole from everyone else, some of it illegally. So, be sure they will do everything in their power to stop others from getting that data freely.
Yeah, I think a lot of the "slow down" rumblings we're hearing from OpenAI and Anthropic are really overtures toward regulatory capture; basically, "now that we're in the lead, we need to lock this shit down so nobody else can catch up."
Depends on your world view, they might or might not come up with something better. but I guess we can agree nothing with stop them from _trying_?
The moat looks deep today but it's going to become more shallow every year. Training a new model from scratch takes serious resources. Post-training/fine-tuning an existing model, dramatically less. The knowledge for the process was esoteric two years ago, now you can ask a current model (one of several) to walk you through it, while building the tools to do it as you go. Several of my recent weekend projects have be…
Unfortunately this has been happening almost forever. You can spend 10s of thousands of $$ design, prototyping, building & marketing anything, whether a physical product or software & some company where the wages are lower are going to come along, build it cheaper (not necessarily better quality either) and ship it to the world.
As a result, the other countries import more stuff "because it is cheaper" and eventually local manufacturing dwindles away to virtually nothing. That is the case here in Australia. Our manufacturing base has shrunk to stuff all compared to what we had 30 years ago & as a result we are poorer as a nation for it
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I think we agree? What moat? You answered yourself: "capital intensive" But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years. They've bought up all the RAM and GPUs, which pushes the capital requirements upward for everyone else. But, they can't corner the market forever, there are too many competing interests. AMD and Intel keep making new GPUs and APUs. The memory makers can't just se…
They’ve bought up all the RAM and GPUs… Is there an endgame where even this is considered overly complex? Instead of starving the competition by buying up all the compute, why not just buy up… all the money!? Hoover up as much investment capital as possible so that your competitors can’t get funding.
The moat looks deep today but it's going to become more shallow every year. Training a new model from scratch takes serious resources. Post-training/fine-tuning an existing model, dramatically less. The knowledge for the process was esoteric two years ago, now you can ask a current model (one of several) to walk you through it, while building the tools to do it as you go. Several of my recent weekend projects have be…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
'evil' lol. Every single corporation you deal with is evil then. it's greed. and almost every large model provider is guilty of it. China is all open source right now. cool! gee i wonder what would happen if they ever actually achieved SOTA? They would clamp down on that so fast Dadio's dradel would spin
China isnt "all open source" they still keep their top models out of the public view. Its easy to "open source" models when they're so far behind very few will pay for them. Open source in quotes because they are not open source and not even close to open source.
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10 engineers can make a billion dollar company. One Claude can replace 10 engineers. This gets very close to "infinitely valuable", it starts to look like a vertical line to me
> 10 engineers can make a billion dollar company Not really. It's possible they could, but in practice they cannot. Creating a billion dollar company requires a good idea, good timing, and a lot of luck, the engineers are the least important part.
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No, you pretty obviously didn't understand it, at least in the sense of ASI being talked about. The whole "oh don't buy it" stops mattering. Humans are no longer the sole creators of information and intelligence. That is AI no longer has to steal, but humans will have to beg, borrow, or steal the information/products that ASI creates.
That's not going to happen.
I don't understand how businesses could trust cloud LLMs going forward with this ongoing "safety" paranoia. Building dependence on them doesn't feel like a sane strategic decision for users.
The moat looks deep today but it's going to become more shallow every year. Training a new model from scratch takes serious resources. Post-training/fine-tuning an existing model, dramatically less. The knowledge for the process was esoteric two years ago, now you can ask a current model (one of several) to walk you through it, while building the tools to do it as you go. Several of my recent weekend projects have be…
Unfortunately this has been happening almost forever. You can spend 10s of thousands of $$ design, prototyping, building & marketing anything, whether a physical product or software & some company where the wages are lower are going to come along, build it cheaper (not necessarily better quality either) and ship it to the world. As a result, the other countries import more stuff "because it is cheaper" and eventually…
>As a result, the other countries import more stuff "because it is cheaper" and eventually local manufacturing dwindles away to virtually nothing. That is the case here in Australia. Our manufacturing base has shrunk to stuff all compared to what we had 30 years ago & as a result we are poorer as a nation for it
Then the companies in that country need to learn how to be more competitive and governments need to learn how not to overregulate, overtax and raise barriers.