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If you compare prediction market implied odds to the actual odds that ended up they match very closely
what are these "actual odds" and if you have the time machine that lets you observe the necessary outcomes to calculate them, why are you bothering with making money on betting markets?
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something is deeply wrong with some humans
Its just a dark mirror episode. I can't imagine waking up and thinking "boy I'll really make some money if we kill Ayatollah Khomeini today"
There are the people from the kill command who bet on what they are ordered to do.
There could even be a bet by someone with direct influence on the government who convinces them to do it to make some money.
I don't usually see advertisements, but I was in a position recently to see a real-life television stream, and I was quite surprised to see them run an advertisement for Kalshi. I was pretty surprised that something like this would be advertised to normal people. I'd half expect the next ad to be for a hitman, or for beating your wife, or something. Seems crazy that this is tolerated whatsoever.
In the early 2000s major sports didn't even want to run "enjoy a vacation to Las Vegas" ads because of the loose connection to gambling. Now they encourage users to bet as part of the commentary.
I see the percentage of advertising devoted to gambling to be a similar bellwether to the decline of my whole country. And it’s getting worse all the time. I can’t turn on the tv, look at billboards on the freeway, watch a sporting event, or even walk down a supermarket checkout without getting constantly reminded of how far we’ve fallen.
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They can take any position they want and do whatever they want, the point is that these oddball markets are very thin so there just isn't much money there to harvest. You can only bet $50M at your chosen risk if you can find enough people to take the other side, and these markets simply don't have many participants betting much money. Think of it like kids betting pennies what subject the teacher will open with the n…
I don't think the markets are thin, there are some bets that have made people many millions.
I have a bot betting on a handful of what I consider (so far) markets that are impossible to cheat (bar UMA shenanigans): nobody has any control over the outcomes, previous knowledge is very limited. It makes some money, but looking at the depth, the volume, and my metrics, even being the fastest 100% of the time without worrying about bankroll, one of them would gimme roughly $1-2k a week.
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Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?
Some of the prediction markets explicitly forbid payouts based on death. E.g., Kalshi refused to pay out "leaves office" when Khamenei was killed.
To be clear they had explicitly written in the contract from the start that death didn't count. And they paid out the full amount - just not to the same betters they would have if he had left office alive.
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Relatedly, is it OK with you if somebody bets a few million dollars on your early demise?
People short stocks for billions of dollars every day the time.
Because otherwise, I don't think this conversation is going to lead anywhere.
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Also bad if such crucial information is based on a single sensor with barely any physical security
This logic is how we ended up with TSA. "What do you mean, people used to just walk up to planes with their shoes on and a FULL 8-ounce water bottle in hand with barely any physical security?" It's easier to stop incentivizing people to ruin the commons, vs. trying to strengthen the commons against all possible adversarial behavior.