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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#331

Post by frombody »

rcpt wrote: post #270

Even if covid came out of a wild animal market the simple fact that "gain of function" research on coronaviruses was getting funded in the first place should be be cause for concern.

The US government pulled funding for this, but coronavirus research was allowed to continue because they secured funding before the ban.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavi...

Incidentally, most of Ralph Baric's research ended up in Wuhan with Zhengli-Li Shi and his team, where their research continued.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12711

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#332

Post by dathinab »

dash2 wrote: post #304
nyolfen wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

specifically he is a specialist in bat biology, but perhaps more relevantly he had a very interesting conversation with a russian virologist who also thinks this is the case: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug here is an essay written by his guest: https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug...

I don’t know if it’s just me, but when I read three or four people on a thread all agreeing with each other, I become suspicious. It doesn’t seem how normal conversations go. It probably just is my quirk, does anyone else share this gut feeling?

In this case no.

The reason is that if you have a less widely accepted opinion and someone states it and you can add additional info to it which makes it "stronger" you are likely to do so.

Which still doesn't mean I believe it. As far as I know the scientific majority believe is that the virus doesn't show any indication of potential human manipulation and is very unlikely to be human made assuming China isn't years ahead wrt. virus manipulation (which doesn't mean it doesn't escaped from a lab, btw.).

But as I'm not to much involved in this I would need hours to collect sources and trace them back to their original source to provide any useful links. So no credibility to this post.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#333

Post by souprock »

js2 wrote: post #91
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

> evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground What are you talking about? Zoonotic origin is the source of the majority of viruses: > Approximately 60% of the known infectious diseases and 75% of the new emerging or re-emerging diseases infecting humans came from animals. SARS-CoV-2 is the latest addition to the seven coronaviruses found in humans, and experts said that all of these viruses either came…

What counts as zoonotic? What counts as engineered?

The lab was publishing research for many years. We know they grew bat viruses in HeLa cells that had been modified to have bat features. One would expect, as a simple matter of evolution, that the viruses would adapt to replicate without reliance on the bat features. It's breeding.

Now, is that zoonotic or engineered? Reasonable people could argue either way. Does the term we use matter so much? William Shakespeare wrote that "A rose by any other name would smell as sweet."

Either way, that is some seriously hazardous research with an obvious potential for permanent worldwide consequences. Somebody needed to say "NO".

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#334

Post by dathinab »

SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #235
thelittleone wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Banned by who? Looking at the relative impact of the virus it seems the US is harder hit. Although the virus appears to be a tragic accident, a weakened US allows other nations to make advances. That being said, I tend to agree with your assertion.

Surely the rest of the world has the leverage to pressure China to ban wild-animal markets.

There are similar markets in the rest of the word so, no.

There is also no need to ban such markets, but to further regulate what and how things can be sold is reasonable.

One problem often ignored is that because of differences in general wealth it's e.g. not always/every where feasible to require selling only pre-processed (cut apart) meat (and other body parts) as the necessary fridge infrastructure doesn't exist and would be to expansive.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#335

Post by jannes »

eznzt wrote: post #105
adamcstephens wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But liable to what end? What international jurisdiction will force China to “pay”? America destroyed Iraq on lies, but what has that liability cost them?

Really, you are going to compare the destruction of "Iraq" to the hindering of the activities of the entire civilised world?

Why do you put Iraq in quotes as if it weren’t a real country?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#336

Post by [deleted] »

consumer451 wrote: post #154
purplecats wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why that date

Not gp, but to me it seems common and smart to put an expiration date on all financial offers. That's the simplest explanation at least. This rootclaim.com process is new to me, there could certainly be other explanations. Kudos to purplecats for making that offer as well, assuming this whole thing is on the up and up. edit: below was my post when it was first upvoted, prior to edit. > Not gp, but to me it seems smar…

[deleted]

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#337

Post by purplecats »

sargun wrote: post #271
consumer451 wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not gp, but to me it seems common and smart to put an expiration date on all financial offers. That's the simplest explanation at least. This rootclaim.com process is new to me, there could certainly be other explanations. Kudos to purplecats for making that offer as well, assuming this whole thing is on the up and up. edit: below was my post when it was first upvoted, prior to edit. > Not gp, but to me it seems smar…

It’s to avoid wasting time, to create a sense of urgency, and to avoid putting myself in an awkward situation where I have to say no due to changed circumstances.

makes sense but what heuristic did you use to come up with that specific date/duration?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#338

Post by DoingIsLearning »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #329
DoingIsLearning wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There is no direct air flight from Italy to Wuhan without going through Amsterdam Schipol or Beijing. There are no Shipping ports in inland Wuhan. Do you truly believe it is a realistic scenario that a virus this infectious could traverse from northern Italy to Wuhan, Hubei, without creating multiple infection hotspots along the way? If I am to put on my tinfoil ha…

He's not making an extraordinary claim, just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts. In fact this is the most likely scenario (Wuhan was the first known outbreak but the virus does not originate from there) Could we also stop dropping "CCP propaganda" everytime someone writes something others disagree with?

> just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts

What facts support a European source for SARS-Cov2, that then stealthily traversed two continents, to then super spread in Wuhan, Hubei?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#339

Post by mschuster91 »

skinkestek wrote: post #137
mschuster91 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a biologist, this is not a biological question per se - all viruses and bacteria mutate over time during replication. It's a question of statistics rather... When you have 100 infected individuals and a virus that mutates in 1% of infected people (note: this is a random number, no idea what the actual mutation rate of coronavirus is), you'll end up with one mutated version. When you have 100k of infected people,…

But how did one new strain suddenly amass 17 previously unseen mutations? Normally we should have sampled a number of strains with fewer of the same mutations, shouldn't we?

The problem is most countries don't sample - they put people through a PCR test and then send them off their way. The UK also does somewhat-regular genetic sequencing of positive tests, precisely to spot new mutations.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#340

Post by stoon »

DoingIsLearning wrote: post #338
mytailorisrich wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's not making an extraordinary claim, just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts. In fact this is the most likely scenario (Wuhan was the first known outbreak but the virus does not originate from there) Could we also stop dropping "CCP propaganda" everytime someone writes something others disagree with?

> just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts What facts support a European source for SARS-Cov2, that then stealthily traversed two continents, to then super spread in Wuhan, Hubei?

I heard from someone that works in the clothing industry that there are strong links between Italy and China, i.e. there are lots of chinese workers in Italy working in the textile industry. When the talk of the first lockdown was spreading, a lot of people got out and went to Italy. I think this is supported by the fact that the first outbreak in Italy occured in a lot of small towns and away from big cities, typical locations for industrial jobs.
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