Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

Post by seganddr » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:40 AM UTC

tcbawo wrote: post #255

smacktoward wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the spread in our city is quite low for now If you’re in the United States, where testing has been infuriatingly limited, the fact of the matter is you have no idea what the spread in your community is. The numbers aren’t low because nobody has the virus, they’re low because nobody has been tested. If we did actual testing, they might come in low or they might come in high, who knows. As it stands, nobody has any r…

The state of Ohio has only 26 confirmed cases, but two days ago the Director of the Ohio Department of Health estimated that 1% of the state's population (100k) may be infected due to the high ratio of cases being community-spread [1]. This is the likely reason for such a high number of celebrities in the news testing positive -- it's already everywhere; they are the only ones getting tested. [1] https://www.wkyc.com…

Post by jrumbut » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:41 AM UTC

scarmig wrote: post #129

zozbot234 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan, and then largely to Wuhan itself and Hubei - they didn't let the population know about the danger, so for quite some time no one was thinking about protecting themselves by wearing m…

The full danger was unknown in the initial stages. Provincial officials were downplaying it for various reasons, and until the very end of December it wasn't known to even transmit person-to-person. Once the threat was clear, the government of China acted much more alacrity and decisiveness than any Western country, which have had months of advance notice.

Post by hatenberg » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:42 AM UTC

tormeh wrote: post #328

Taek wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No leader wants to take drastic action for their nation when the number of deaths they can point to for justification is smaller than the number of deaths for the seasonal flu. If they save lives and prevent the disease from spreading, it looks like they over-reacted and unnecessarily tanked the economy.

This. No self-preserving politician wold have reacted early to this. And you don't get to that level without being self-preserving.

Post by friedman23 » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:44 AM UTC

hatenberg wrote: post #292

delegate wrote: post #46

I've seen comments here trying to play down the message or discredit the signatories of this letter. Don't. Please take it seriously. This is not sensationalism. What the letter means is that if your country is not there yet, you might be DAYS away from widespread panic and total lock down. I'm writing this from Barcelona, Spain. This last Sunday, 6 days ago, I went on a walk with my girlfriend, had a nice lunch, too…

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

Post by cercatrova » Sun, Mar 15, 2020, 2:48 AM UTC

hatenberg wrote: post #335

tormeh wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. No self-preserving politician wold have reacted early to this. And you don't get to that level without being self-preserving.

Clearly self preservation stops at simple math. We need to confront the fact that democracy in the West by now elects people who sell the most comfortable lies instead of people who help adaptation to reality.