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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#331

Post by yread »

didericis wrote: post #196
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their e…

> Their extreme quarantine efforts happened more than a month and a half after the first case was detected

I do agree that China and especially Wuhan could have acted faster - perhaps by 2 weeks though not month and a half. 1st December there was a case of pneumonia admitted to a hospital - that happens probably more than millions times a year. After 3 days it was clear that it's a viral pneumonia. That's more severe but still not uncommon. Only by the middle of the month it became clear to doctors that there are more and more such cases - but still spread through different hospitals of the 11 million Wuhan.

Obviously it takes time for this information to get to the bureaucrats. They should have done something - but then again, what? There are perhaps ~50 cases of viral pneumonia in a city the size of small country during an influenza season. If China hasn't gone through SARS it would take months to act on this information.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#332

Post by bitreality »

littlestymaar wrote: post #313
asiachick wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this par…

> Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Look at Italy right now. > Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Sure, but this has nothing to do with authoritarian states vs democracy. You'll find a ton of authoritarian states doing exactly the same…

Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak. They're being told to do things and assuming that it will stop the virus. But the truth is, containment does not actually stop the virus. It simply slows it.

When or if this hits the US or elsewhere in Europe, and it becomes obvious that despite the quarantine in Italy, the virus still continued to spread, they will question the measures being taken. As time goes on, the West will become critical of government response and may be difficult to control.

In China when the government tells its citizens to do something, they just do it. They don't ask why. They don't deliberate on whether it's the correct choice. They simply follow the directions. In the West, everything is up for debate. People don't like to be told what to do.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#333

Post by bantunes »

toshk wrote: post #328

A friend of mine who worked for defense creating viruses is convinced it's man made because of the way the virus is structured. Whether it's true or not. It's an interesting case, and I wonder why no one is writing about this possibilty in the media. Those ideas are quickly dismissed as crazy conspiracy theory. Where every big government is actively working on creating viruses for both defense and offense. Especially…

> Around the world outbreaks out of viruses out of these labs happen regularly. Even on purpose sometimes, but most of the time accidently.

Any sources on that?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#334

Post by wklauss »

jmnicolas wrote: post #155
melonkidney wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your thoughts echo mine very closely. Uncontained spread seems fairly well unavoidable at this point. By all accounts, the Chinese have so far done a good job of containing the spread inside their borders (outside of Wuhan). But I feel there's a significant lesson to be learned from how the virus exited Wuhan in the first place: containment measures applied too late, after the scale of the problem became too obvious…

> modulo the economic impact This is a BIG modulo, China alone was already a disaster but now that we can see the rest of the world will be hit, the economic consequences will be disastrous. 2008 was a walk in the park compared to what may happen.

> the economic consequences will be disastrous.

I seriously doubt it will. Once the panic subdues, things will go back to pretty much normal. Flu kills a lot of people every year without serious effects on the worldwide economy. You'll need a mortality rate significantly higher to make a dent in global supply and demand. Of course panic is the key word here. If governments impose severe movement restrictions it could disrupt the supply chain, but nothing about this virus seems to justify it. All the measures taken so far have been extreme because the goal was to stop worldwide expansion at early stages but that has already pretty much failed. Media will get bored of it eventually, vaccine will come a little later. World will keep spinning around.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#335

Post by 2sk21 »

01100011 wrote: post #42

I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit…

Same here - there is absolutely no reason for me to be physically present in the office so I plan to work from home as much as possible in the near future

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#336

Post by ImaCake »

toshk wrote: post #328

A friend of mine who worked for defense creating viruses is convinced it's man made because of the way the virus is structured. Whether it's true or not. It's an interesting case, and I wonder why no one is writing about this possibilty in the media. Those ideas are quickly dismissed as crazy conspiracy theory. Where every big government is actively working on creating viruses for both defense and offense. Especially…

Virologists seem pretty happy to say that the virus is not man made. [0]

It is amazing to me the crazy theories circulating about this virus. Does anyone remember similar stories from Zika or Ebola 2015 outbreaks?

0. http://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-ori...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#337

Post by jfkebwjsbx »

flukus wrote: post #209
cmurf wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you can shed the virus without symptoms. Who will take limited sick days for a 14+ day incubation before they're symptomatic? Who eats the cost of being out sick for multiple weeks? Business can legally fire people for not show up for work, even if they're sick. Essentially no one has wage insurance, and median savings $1200 per the Federal Reserve won't go far.

Even in a "socialist utopia" with public healthcare and good sick leave there are a lot of open questions like that and I get the feeling that the poor will be hit hard. If they shut down non-essential places then how do the people working there pay for rent and food? If they shut down schools then can the parents take paid time off to look after kids? What if the parents are nurses? So far I haven't seen an explanat…

That "utopia" you describe is the norm in Europe.

But yes, every country will get economically weakened, for one reason or another, and usually the ones who suffer most are the poor.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#338

Post by koheripbal »

noodlesUK wrote: post #146

As someone tangentially attached to the sports community, the olympics is already a bit screwed up anyway, simply because the sports seasons (and thus the qualification pathway) for many events in the games have been significantly disrupted by the coronavirus. Many athletes who were in touching distance of qualifying will not be able to, and other athletes will be sent in their stead (if it happens at all) Olympic qu…

I think it's already a certainty that it's going to be cancelled - they are just trying to lighten the blow by telling people they're just "considering it".

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#339

Post by t0mislav »

01100011 wrote: post #42

I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit…

Happened yesterday in my company. :( Big tech company, 2000+ people, central Europe. First registered patient with COVID-19 in my country is from company I'm working for.

We all received notice to work from home.

It will be huge test now for remote work. I bet lot of people doesn't even know how to connect from home. (people from administration etc)

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#340

Post by ImaCake »

reustle wrote: post #279

For those of you curious about the state of COVID-19 in Japan, I created an open source tracker that has gained a lot of momentum. Source Code: https://github.com/reustle/covid19japan/ Tracker: https://covid19japan.com Twitter Thread: https://twitter.com/reustle/status/1229313493808992257

Thankyou. Nothing like well displayed data to shine sunlight on everyone's paranoia :)
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