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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#201

Post by pengaru »

lisper wrote: post #158
nostromo wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime. HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19... For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.

Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.

Or mosquitoes and the malaria they spread...

Malaria was responsible 405,000 deaths globally in 2018 according to [0].

[0] https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/world-m...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#202

Post by JimDabell »

vanniv wrote: post #103
Scipio_Afri wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like children under 9 are not effected much at all, not sure about under 2 tho.

For some reason, coronaviruses generally rarely affect children -- and those that get it rarely spread it to others despite children being fucking disease magnets. This seems not to be very well understood, but it is really interesting. So far there are no known cases affecting children under 2 (as of two days ago when I read the paper about coronavirus and children)

> So far there are no known cases affecting children under 2

This is not the case, there have been a couple of babies infected in Singapore.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#203

Post by chewz »

> Japan’s leaders are so out of touch with the lives of ordinary people that they seem genuinely uninterested in their plight. That, in turn, allows an entire bureaucracy to wallow in denial, even over a crisis like the coronavirus outbreak and just a few months away from the Olympics.

[] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-japan...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#204

Post by netheril96 »

Every time COVID-19 comes up people talk about the "low" mortality rate. But that hinges on enough medical resources. This disease quickly drains medical resources due to so many becoming critically ill. Without effective containment, a country will see their medical resources exhausted, and then the mortality rate won't be 2% ~ 5%. Exactly how high that will be remains to be seen.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#205

Post by HlessClaudesman »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

I also will add a note of admiration for how the people of China have handled this. Their backbreaking work and sacrifice has probably slowed the spread by weeks. You can blame the authorities for not acting sooner, but it's kind of difficult to react to a killer virus until it starts to kill people and by then the horse has left the barn.

I think slowing the spread is the best we can hope for now. The main problem is healthcare throughput. Some quick back of the envelope calculations:

I live in an area of aprox 1,000,000 people, for which probably about 75 ICU beds that can support people on respirators, maybe we can double that in an emergency, but with widespread shortages of basic consumables we are going to be lucky to maintain existing capacity. If ¾ of that population catches the virus and 5% of those need intensive care, the average stay in Wuhan is around 3 weeks, we can calculate the burden on healthcare: (((7500,000 / 100 ) x 5 = 37,500 ICU patients ) / 75 ICU beds) x 3 weeks = 1500 weeks, or nearly 29 years at current capacity to treat everyone.

Obviously there are many simplifications and assumptions in there but my main point is that given existing conditions there is not enough capacity for more than a small fraction of patients. Therefore everyone working to slow the spread of the virus will aid healthcare throughput and save the maximum amount of lives.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#206

Post by netheril96 »

bamboozled wrote: post #177
netheril96 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID-19 is unlike anything before (in modern times). Especially HIV. You don't catch HIV by boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon. For most people, avoiding unsafe sex is enough to avoid HIV. But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significantly disrupted. SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika are a little more like COVID-19, except they never propagate that far.

Do you really think getting HIV is even slightly comparable to having HIV though? Sure you can catch COVID-19 more easily, but it seems like having HIV is a far worse outcome.

And having Ebola is a even worse outcome. But few in developed countries worry about Ebola at all. Why? Because it is not easy for them to catch Ebola at all.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#207

Post by irq11 »

netheril96 wrote: post #167
nostromo wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth reflecting on how many novel pandemics a 40 year old person has experienced in their lifetime. HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19... For some reason it feels like a "only in the history books" event -- and yet it's actually quite common. The average-aged American (38) has lived through multiple epidemics -- including one that has killed 30 million people (HIV) -- and yet we barely talk about it.

COVID-19 is unlike anything before (in modern times). Especially HIV. You don't catch HIV by boarding the subway, eating in a restaurant, or running a marathon. For most people, avoiding unsafe sex is enough to avoid HIV. But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significantly disrupted. SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika are a little more like COVID-19, except they never propagate that far.

”COVID-19 is unlike anything before”

It’s almost exactly like every other respiratory virus, except that the case fatality estimates for old and sick people are higher.

There’s nothing mechanistically new about the infections we’re seeing. It’s a pretty bog-standard respiratory virus, in terms of its transmission and overall virulence.

”But if COVID-19 spreads to their country, people's daily lives will be significantly disrupted.”

If so, it will be primarily due to blunt attempts to prevent transmission of the virus in order to protect the sick and the old. For most people, this virus is little more than a mild chest cold.

Once this becomes a true pandemic, we will see a rapid shift away from quarantines and travel bans, and an increased emphasis on protecting vulnerable populations directly.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#208

Post by paxys »

lqs469 wrote: post #60

80 years ago, in 1940, Tokyo hosted the Summer Olympics for the first time, but it was canceled due to the outbreak of WWII and Japan had invaded China. 80 years after, in 2020, Tokyo Summer Olympics could be canceled due to outbreak of coronavirus from China.

In 1940 it was "Screw you China" - Japan

In 2020, it is "Screw you Japan" - China

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#209

Post by flukus »

cmurf wrote: post #174
a13n wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the US is that healthcare is so broken that nobody will want to go to the doctor to get checked because it's too expensive.

And you can shed the virus without symptoms. Who will take limited sick days for a 14+ day incubation before they're symptomatic? Who eats the cost of being out sick for multiple weeks? Business can legally fire people for not show up for work, even if they're sick. Essentially no one has wage insurance, and median savings $1200 per the Federal Reserve won't go far.

Even in a "socialist utopia" with public healthcare and good sick leave there are a lot of open questions like that and I get the feeling that the poor will be hit hard. If they shut down non-essential places then how do the people working there pay for rent and food? If they shut down schools then can the parents take paid time off to look after kids? What if the parents are nurses? So far I haven't seen an explanation of how all this plays out, or how it's playing out in already quarantined areas.

I'm about to finish my current job which wouldn't normally be worrying, but if hiring stops and interviewing becomes impossible the equation changes pretty fast.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#210

Post by distantaidenn »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

Living in Tokyo and just returned from Seoul yesterday. It's striking how differently the countries are handling this issue. Korea is pretty much on lockdown -- the government and the population are being quite proactive. Masks everywhere, thermal guns at junctions with high human traffic. Water fountains shut down, etc. Even the airport staff at the eateries were undergoing temperature checks before interacting with customers.

Coming back to Japan; however, people seem kind of unconcerned in comparison. The airport was business as usual and no visible increase in mask usage.

I went to a GP just this morning for a shoulder injury and noticed some of the staff weren't wearing any face protection, and a few wearing them incorrectly. It was a bit unnerving, to be honest.

I have a feeling Tokyo is about to have a huge outbreak any day now. I'm not one to fear-monger, but knowing how casual people can be when out and about (unchecked coughing/sneezing, subpar handwashing in public toilets), it almost seems inevitable especially given how crowded this city is. As a resident, I'd like us to step up our precaution game before we hit infection levels that we are seeing with our neighbors -- but I'm afraid it might already be too late.

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