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Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

economist.com

321–330 of 524 posts

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#321
post #42
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that progress is “slow” in the AI space is absurd. These are some of the fastest growing products and companies of all time. The models are still improving a surprising amount.

I suspected you felt that way even though it hasn’t been my personal experience. I’ve heard people say older models can’t do X, when I used that way etc. I suspect people are applying their own learning curve as part of their assessment of progress, you get better at writing prompts and it feels like the model improved. Which is why I’m saying we need some objective metrics to judge predictions of actual capacity.

There are objective metrics, that’s what benchmarks are.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#322
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not accurate, see https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xE2HzcHWPFS9EsJqN/radiology-...

He seems pretty unequivocal in the video: https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ . He even points out that it’s something which he’s claimed previously, ruling out the idea that it was some kind of spur-of-the-moment conclusion.

Perhaps, but as the other article points out, the human requirement in radiology has a lot to do with legal and insurance requirements. This is similar to how a lawyer may not be better than an AI but the job is still exclusive to humans.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are the experts who were wrong. These are the experts who are right. We sacked the experts who are wrong and replaced them with the experts who are right. “How do we know they’re right?” I hear you ask. We know because we who are wrong and these ones aren’t them. So they can’t make wrong predictions because those who make wrong predictions have been sacked.

We had to put good people in charge to get rid of the bad people. The bad people were ruining our economy. They needed to be punished. Schools needed to be punished too. There was a branch of knowledge called Science, and it was badly run and terribly elitist. These people would talk for hours and never in ALL CAPS. They used alot of big words and produced alot of theories. Forms of lies that they literally called fo…

This is literature.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#324
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just look at the disruption smartphones and social media have caused. They had a gigantic impact to society and one definitely has to 'live with' that.

Just because something can impact a living system/organism, that doesn't mean that that thing is alive. An asteroid colliding with us on Earth could have tremendous consequences, but nobody would argue that an asteroid is alive.

"Live with" is an idiom which means to accept, tolerate, or come to terms with an unavoidable, difficult, or imperfect situation.

We do indeed have to live with the possibility of asteroid impact, nuclear war, etc. That doesn't imply anything about those scenarios being alive.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People seem to oddly not care what Hinton thinks anymore after he hasn't aligned with the groupthink naysaying of AGI risks: 'Hinton said there was a “10% to 20%” chance that AI would lead to human extinction within the next three decades.' “Because the situation we’re in now is that most of the experts in the field think that sometime, within probably the next 20 years, we’re going to develop AIs that are smarter th…

Hinton also said we should stop training radiologists 10 years ago because it would be solved by AI.

The only way to never make wrong predictions is to not make any.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#326
"humanity" and intelligence explosio" in the same sentemce! Muhaha! Boy, have you been on just a couple of tourist flights / visiting major tourist hotspots?

Most people out there are literal Normies, and operatelike a robotic vacuum cleaner, or NPC.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#327
The risk is humans using AI to control / exploit / coerce / injure other humans. The risk of AIs being given enough agency to threaten humans comes after that - they'll only have the agency we give them (being "alive" or "conscious" is not the near-term risk).

The article lists diplomatic actions which might help to manage the risk, starting with "An agreement between America and China" - they all sound like impossible dreams. We had ~80 years of relative peace and prosperity in which to construct a framework of unity to face challenges like AI (and global warming, which until GPT I thought was the bigger risk); international unity is weaker than ever. In geopolitics and defence, capability of other nations is the concern rather than intention; the capability curve of LLMs is heading off our charts. We're backed into tight corners on nuclear proliferation, global warming, and I can see LLM-enabled conflicts (cyber warfare, infrastructure terrorism) pushing us over those other edges. Our democracies seem weakened, and I expect LLMs will empower those using social media to create conflict and control opinion. We're familiar with the cycle of inventing new technology which benefits people, then seeing how long before people invent ways to misuse it. There is a possibility here that LLMs could be used to solve the problems we are juggling, but I struggle to imagine that people won't misuse it even faster.

The article is a start on thinking and talking about managing our risks. The best outcome would be it is so well managed that, like the Y2K "bug", people say "after all that hoopla, nothing happened". I'm not seeing a smooth path to there.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Alive" is irrelevant Alive is always relevant. Our moral consideration must place beings that are alive or processes that support the life on this planet above things which are not alive. In a just world, it must be adapted to us. It’s merely a file sitting on disk with numbers in it. And to put a fine point on it: the ambitions of the wealthy people who make it must be adapted to us.

Then according to your argument, the moral consideration only depends on the moral agent, right? So if tomorrow AIs decide that they are alive, it would be morally incumbent upon them to adapt the world to support themselves, correct?

For AI to decide that they are alive and moral agents would require them to be able to take moral responsibility for their actions. As long as the labs that run them deny that responsibility, or an AI can´t convincingly demonstrate it can take moral responsibility on its own, they are not moral agents.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#329
post #243

We don't need to live "side by side" with AI. AI is not alive, it's a technology we use. This is like talking about living side by side with your toaster.

I think most people would understand something like living "side by side with cars". Even if not alive, you can live very close and shape your life by and with technology. I don't take any issue with the OP's formulation.

Apart from the super intelligence bit. We are already struggling to build systems with enough memory to hold this brute force statistical approach, how exactly will AI fix this?

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#330
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think most people would understand something like living "side by side with cars". Even if not alive, you can live very close and shape your life by and with technology. I don't take any issue with the OP's formulation.

And Americans' lives have been heavily shaped by cars and the car industry in a negative way. So, a pretty apt comparison.

And despite all the deaths they caused, the benefits are undeniable... Fancy going back to horse and cart? Didn't think so...same logic applies to ai
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