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OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

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Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#321

Post by OtherShrezzing »

jlokier wrote: post #203

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: > Google is pretty useful. It uses 15 TWh per year. 15TWh per year is about 1.7GW. Assuming the above figures, that means OpenAI and Nvidia new plan will consume about 5.8 Googles worth of power, by itself. At that scale, there's a huge opportunity for ultra-low-power AI compute chips (compared with current GPUs), and right now there are several very promising technology pathways to it.

This one datacenter should be able to perform a 51% attack on any of the big cryptocurrencies with that much compute.

An interesting hedge in case the AI bubble pops.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#322

Post by Recursing »

tonyhart7 wrote: post #237
Recursing wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a better sense of scale: it's about 2% of the average US electricity consumption, and about the same as the average electricity consumption of the Netherlands (18 million people)

Wtf, and this is from 1 company How many atrophic,xAi,google,Microsoft would be???? having around 5% entire country infrastructure on AI hardware seems excessive no???

No this is from just one partnership, my sense is that OpenAI alone wants more than that.

5% to 10% of US electricity going to AI in 10 years is consistent with the current valuations of AI companies.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#323

Post by mrandish »

truelson wrote: post #269
JCM9 wrote: post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

Going to leave this link here: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250814/ By many different measures, we are at record valuations (though must be said, not P/E however). Tends not to end well. And housing prices are based on when mortgages were at 3% and have not reset accordingly. We are in everything bubble territory and have been.

> Tends not to end well.

I'm no financial guru but this time around the boom/bust cycle, there's a new, additional factor that's concerning. Even though I sold my individual tech company shares a few years ago and diversified all my equity holdings in broad market ETFs like VTI, the so-called "Magnificent 7" tech companies have inflated so much, they now occupy a disproportionate percentage of even broad market ETFs which hold ~5,000 stocks based on their market caps. The obvious issue being their share prices all having a significant component elevated by the same thing - unrealistic AI growth expectations.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#324

Post by humanizersequel »

mgh95 wrote: post #305
humanizersequel wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're doing about a billion per month in revenue by running proprietary models on GPUs like these. Unless they're selling inference with zero/negative margin, it seems like a business model that could be made profitable very easily.

Revenue != profit, and you don't need to become net negative margin to be net unprofitable. Expensive researchers, expensive engineers, expensive capex, etc. Inference has extremely different unit economics from a typical SaaS like Salesforce or adtech like google or facebook.

All of those expenses could be trimmed in a scenario where OpenAI or other big labs pivot to focus primarily on profitability via selling inference.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#325

Post by HPsquared »

mcny wrote: post #266
ogaj wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may, but that doesn’t mean that the capacity disappears. It may require some assumptions about USG willingness to backstop an acquisition but it’s not a significant leap to think that the generation capacity remains in (more capable?) hands.

Speaking of capacity, what happened to all the "dark fiber" that was supposedly built for Internet 2 or whatever? The fiber doesn't go away just because a bubble burst, right?

Railways are similar, many were built by investors who lost all their investment but the railway is still there.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#326

Post by Imustaskforhelp »

rapsey wrote: post #286
truelson wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going to leave this link here: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250814/ By many different measures, we are at record valuations (though must be said, not P/E however). Tends not to end well. And housing prices are based on when mortgages were at 3% and have not reset accordingly. We are in everything bubble territory and have been.

People are quite bearish and the stock market is making all time highs. This is actually a very good sign, because we are far from any euphoria. Always keep in mind the old saying: pesimists get to be right and optimists get to be rich.

That quote definitely has some insane survivor bias in it.

Optimists go bankrupt or something and you blame them on their work ethic or something and you discard any of those optimists who didn't really succeed and cherry pick those optimists which went right...

Its a classic survivorship bias.

I am pessimistic in US stocks because they are so concentrated on AI for returns and its definitely a bubble or approaches its territory, there is somewhat no denying about it from what I observe.

Your comment really is just off putting to me because I feel like its just a copium which is going to be inhaled by the new generation and then if we fail which lets be honest failure is a natural part of life, we are gonna blame ourselves and that's just really depressing.

I'd better be right than rich. Maybe my rich definition is something that I can get out of hard work while maybe being pessimist (just enough money to have freedom lol)

I don't want to make billions or hundreds of millions, i don't want to build a vc funded disaster for humanity in the name of shareholders whether its an Ad dystopia or an AI nightmare fuel, I'd rather make a imprint on humanity other than my bank account number but maybe that's me being "optimistic"

Sorry but your comment truly ragebaited me... I have very strong opinions in this regards.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#327

Post by dismalaf »

radu_floricica wrote: post #263
JCM9 wrote: post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

But real GPUs are being built, installed and used. It's not paper money, it's just buying goods and services partly with stock. Which is a very solid and time honored tradition which happens to align incentives very well.

No one's implying it's fake money or resources, only that will no clear path to profit eventually the money will stop flowing and valuations will implode.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#328

Post by lacy_tinpot »

JCM9 wrote: post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

This is more like reinvesting into the business as it's growing. It's a positive sum loop.

Nvidia makes money by selling to OpenAI. OpenAI makes money by selling a service to users that uses Nvidia. So Nvidia invests in the build out and expansion of the infrastructure that will use Nvidia.

This is a classic positive sum loop.

It's not that different than a company reinvesting revenue in growing the company.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#329

Post by jedberg »

paxys wrote: post #287
BHSPitMonkey wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVDA's share price enjoyed a nice $6 bump today, so the announcement did what it was supposed to do. In a sense, it's just an ask to public investors for added capital to do a thing, and evidently a number of investors found the pitch compelling enough.

Increase in share price doesn't provide extra cash to a company. They'd have to issue new shares for that.

It doesn't directly, but it helps because they can do deals where they buy things with stock, like people's labor or small companies, and now that "money" is more valuable.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#330

Post by dcchambers »

gloxkiqcza wrote: post #282

I’m really curious how this affects the consumer GPU market over the next few years. Sure, there has been a GPU shortage for a few years now but if this continues, there should be an absolute surplus of obsolete-gen enterprise GPUs flooding the market, right? Any ideas what limitations and benefits these cards might have for an enthusiast?

I feel like we're lucky Nvidia even sells consumer GPUs any more. At this point it's just a distraction to them and takes away resources they could be devoting to higher value hardware.

And the data center-class hardware doesn't do well in a home environment. It's not good for gaming. It runs hot and uses a ton of energy. Not to mention, silicon that is running hot 24/7 for years probably isn't the best thing to own second hand.

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