261–270 of 668 posts
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You could think of it as "as much power as is used by NYC and Chicago combined". Which is fucking insanely wasteful.
I mean if 10GW of GPUs gets us AGI and we cure cancer than that's cool, but I do get the feeling we're just getting uncannier chatbots and fully automated tiktok influencers
Next Year: OpenAI announces it is seeking funding for a Dyson Sphere
This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…
To put this into perspective this datacenter would have the land area of Monaco (740 acres) given assumptions of a 80kW/rack per case.
Monaco is so tiny it fits into Berlin's Tempelhofer Feld (a circular park inside the city).
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> Almost every model trained by the majors has paid for itself with inference fees. Even if we assume this is true, the downstream customers paying for that inference also need it to pay for itself on average in order for the upstream model training to be sustainable, otherwise the demand for inference will dry up when the music stops. There won't always be a parade of over-funded AI startups burning $10 worth of tok…
My employer spends $100k/month or more on OpenAI fees. Money well spent, in both product features and developer process. This is just one fairly small random startup. Thousands of companies are spending this money and making more money because of it.
I can maybe digest the fact that it helped prototype and ship a bit more code in a shorter time frame... but does that warrant in enough new customers or a higher value product that would justify $100k a month?!
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Power generation is not a monolithic enterprise. If more supply is built than needed, certain suppliers will go bankrupt.
They may, but that doesn’t mean that the capacity disappears. It may require some assumptions about USG willingness to backstop an acquisition but it’s not a significant leap to think that the generation capacity remains in (more capable?) hands.
This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…
This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…
But the "round tripping" kind of makes sense. OpenAI is not listed, but if it was, some of the AI investment money would flow to it. So now, if you are an AI believer, NVidia is allocating some of that money for you.
This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…
By many different measures, we are at record valuations (though must be said, not P/E however). Tends not to end well. And housing prices are based on when mortgages were at 3% and have not reset accordingly. We are in everything bubble territory and have been.