Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#321

Post by dcre » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:10 AM UTC

ants_everywhere wrote: post #307

lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I was looking at used cars on Carmax about two or three weeks ago. I looked again today. They're another $1-2k. This is the shareholder/political class trying to eat their cake and have it too. Pay people a stagnant wage for 40 years while taking most of the surplus value and dedicating it to equities, then pretend to do something about it, but in a way that passes the buck to the people who have been making a stagna…

> while taking most of the surplus value Just FYI, "surplus value" refers a concept Marx made up that is considered in mainstream economics to be an error in reasoning. Even making sense of it requires buying into the labor theory of value that Marx took from Adams and Ricardo, but which is not taken seriously anymore. That doesn't detract from the substance of the point you're making. But it's a little like reading…

You haven’t said anything.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#322

Post by huevosabio » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:10 AM UTC

donnachangstein wrote: post #235

jarym wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My best understanding of the administration's psyche is that they're determined to have more manufacturing happen in the US - regardless of the economic impact. It still doesn't make sense though - there's a reason sneaker makers like to have kids in places like Vietnam make shoes for a few cents per hour. It's because no one in the US would work gruelling hours for such little pay! POTUS wants to 'level the field' b…

> It's because no one in the US would work gruelling hours for such little pay! There are entire towns in the US where nearly everyone is unemployed since the manufacturing dried up. I would happily pay a few more dollars more per sneaker if it meant those people could have a job, and it meant my purchase went toward making someone's life here better. > levelling' will mean the US getting poorer It was never about be…

I find it hard to sympathize, given how much work there is in this country.

People cross the southern border illegally without knowing the local language and with close to no skills and still get jobs, build families and give a chance to prosper to their offspring.

I'm not saying there's no hardship anywhere in the US, but rather that the US has so much richness as a whole that these towns you talk about should be going out of their way to find job elsewhere in the US.

Its how urbanization works and has been the trend for a long time. There's no reason why every geographic location has to have a booming economy.

Though every human should have the ability and right to move where the economic boom is happening.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#323

Post by GCUMstlyHarmls » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:11 AM UTC

gscott wrote: post #192

lunarboy wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what plane of reality is China isolationist

They are the least isolationist they have to sell their goods, often by building the roads that carry them.

I think term is protectionist? Not an economist.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#324

Post by cycomanic » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:11 AM UTC

toddmorey wrote: post #74

lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/government to engage in tactics (e.g. bullying, industrial espionage even against partners...) that they are enraged if others (E.g. China) do it. Europeans seem to be much more susceptible to an "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" argument.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#325

Post by colechristensen » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:11 AM UTC

markus_zhang wrote: post #133

asdev wrote: post #91

Tech really needs to fall another 50% at least. I think when the big AI bust happens(unless it's happening now), we will see that

With this kind of free fall it's going to trigger a lot of busts.

The last market crash was caused by the very economically unnatural COVID and the global response to it. This one is caused by insane foreign policy. Both of these are weird recessions because they don't have anything to do with real market conditions or even stupid pathological market conditions (housing crash).

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#326

Post by sebmellen » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:11 AM UTC

Centigonal wrote: post #284

hattmall wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that's exactly what a liability is! US currency is an IOU. The more of it out in the world the less value there is in America's domestic assets.

I meant "liability" in the sense of "is the US's status as the global reserve currency, on balance, a bad thing for the US?" not in the sense of "Is a US dollar abroad an asset or a liability on America's balance sheet?" Probably could have used a better word.

Curious on your thoughts in response to my sibling comment :)

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#327

Post by jdeow » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:11 AM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #245

owebmaster wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back The pump'n'dump scheme against Ukraine will forever change how small countries see the US support for democracy, even if it changes back to the previous status-quo.

In the end, countries are nuanced enough to understand American political dynamics. They see Orbans, they see Le Pens, they see Trump, and they know what is behind it. I am quite sure that Ukraine did not expect anything else from the Trump faction of the Republican party. His victory was not unlikely and he is a simple creature. If different factions win, they will be eager to work with America again, with less trus…

You are just assuming Attention craving/seeking Trump types don't exist in every country in the world.

If Trump and the rest of his podcasting/influencer buffoon class, can rise to power in the US riding on what is valued by Attention Economics, then the same can repeat in every country in the world.

The root cause is not changing cause the Algos have created a game that favor those who love Attention and will do whatever it takes to get it and keep it.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#328

Post by insane_dreamer » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:11 AM UTC

lovecg wrote: post #289

Vegenoid wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have repeatedly seen Trump say something that sounds ridiculous, and his supporters say "that won't actually happen, and if it does I won't support it", and then he does it and his supporters support it. He has recently said he may try for another term as president, and confirmed "No, no I'm not joking". If you don't take his threats seriously by now, and the willingness of the GOP to get behind whatever he wants,…

Wouldn’t he have to get on the ballot in all the swing states at least? What if some states refuse to let him run? I can’t see California registering him for example, but that wouldn’t really matter of course.

SCOTUS can overrule the States just as they did with CO in 2024

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#329

Post by jjav » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:11 AM UTC

jdlshore wrote: post #84

csense wrote: post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

Bonds and stocks tend to have an inverse correlation. And, yep, bonds are up while stocks and real estate are down. That’s why financial advisors tell you to keep a mix of stocks and bonds, trending towards a greater percentage of bonds depending on your risk tolerance and as you get older. (Because bonds have lower returns than stocks, historically, but are also less volatile.)

> Bonds and stocks tend to have an inverse correlation.

Careful with this, it's not always true and which kind and duration of bonds is important.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#330

Post by OJFord » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:12 AM UTC

losvedir wrote: post #309

OJFord wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a comparison to Brexit? At what point even momentarily was that in a worse situation, nevermind as an ongoing matter?

Are you pretty young? The narrative when it was happening was pretty catastrophic. I remember reading about people not being able to get prescriptions, for example, because no one knew how imports worked. I don't know how things panned out, but the discussions in the early days around Brexit were absolutely on par or even worse than what we're seeing in these two days of discussions around tariffs.

I don't know what 'pretty young' is, apart from condescending, but I voted in it, so I remember as well as you do I imagine.

Regardless of contemporaneous comparisons, the up-thread comment I initially replied to suggested there was some ongoing worse 'crisis' in the UK than the current situation in the US, if they meant to refer to Brexit it was not clear at all, regardless of whether anyone things that's an ongoing worse situation. (Except that the fact it's not clear really suggests it isn't...)