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Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

scanalyst.fourmilab.ch

321–330 of 371 posts

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#321
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

65 billions in debt and having to be saved by the state means you are not profitable. It doesn't matter where the costs come from in this case, they are not covered by the money EDF has accumulated from selling power, which was the point. This debt is already a reality - and growing with interest rates if nothing else - and we haven't even gotten to the many billions more that have to be invested in the beat-up old p…

> It doesn't matter where the costs come from in this case, they are not covered by the money EDF has accumulated from selling power, which was the point. That by itself isn't an issue. Plenty of companies take on debt to invest, for instance. My company intends to take €40bn of new debt in the next decade or so, and our investors don't see it as an issue. That's why unit costs are important, that's what dictates whe…

>That by itself isn't an issue. Plenty of companies take on debt to invest, for instance. My company intends to take €40bn of new debt in the next decade or so, and our investors don't see it as an issue.

But that isn't the case here. When the debt causes you to be bailed out by the government, is is an issue, wouldn't you agree?

EDF isn't a car maker that has to invest in a transition to electric cars (or whatever), they are basically bankrupt. EDF needs _additional_ billions in order to invest in the future, separate from the billions of debt it already accumulated. Since the organisation is nationalised, that money will come from the taxpayers.

>Plants have been decomissioned in the past already. Because of that, we have pretty reasonable estimates of how much dismantling costs.

Which decommissioned reactor are you thinking of?

Most decommissioned reactors are part of plants that have other active reactors, so they are not actually dismantled. EDF has postponed final decommissioning for several of its closed reactors by 50 years, Berkeley in the UK is still ongoing, Vandellos 1 in Spain (closed since 1990) will commence final phase in 2028, Rancho Seco in California, closed in '89 still costs money today, and so on.

Apart from that, the "end result" for decommissioning projects are always "and then the federal government takes over from here". Meaning that the true costs are unknown even when the projects are actually completed.

This is not FUD, it's reasonable concerns based on observed realities. A discussion can be had about nuclear power anyway - it has merits too of course - but the concerns can't simply be brushed aside and ignored. They are based on reality.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#322
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, efficiency is not an issue, but is improving. Storage technology evolve, there are many battery technology, even better than li-ion if fully developed, and storage can be chemical, capturing co2 and making fuels with net zero CO2 pollution, can be thermal, can be even gravitational, hydrogen local storage, and energy can move in grids, to go where is need from where is available, engineering can do this now it t…

You make a lot of assumptions here, about the directions in which future technologies can possibly develop. The thing is: if we are making decisions right now, we should make it based on what we know for sure, not based on our hopes and dreams, which might never materialize. In 20 years time, if the technologies you mention do indeed appear, we can re-evaluate our approach. > Uranium (like fossil fuels) is not everyw…

Much of the technology i mention are here now, concrete and available, storage/battery for sure, driven dy automotive conversion to electric, synthetic fuels are way more close than 20years, all the fossil fuel infrastructure will benefit, and here are big$$, and will work with CO2 capture tech, i suspect we will need this very very soon. In the future are fusion (hope), ad real -safe- fission.

if i have 1$ to invest, i think is wise to invest in tech available, deployable today, scalable, adaptable, and fine grained on territory. just an opinion.

At night use storage and transfer energy with grids, this tech is available now. When windy, store in battery, and if needed transfert with grids, tech available now. No sun, no wind, no sea/tides, no grid, neiter a generator? well.. placing a fission plant here seems the right case, but suspect no one will live in a such place..

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#323
post #308
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I rarely see that here. What I tend to see are people who don't like the idea of nuclear power making misleading or false statements about nuclear power. (Like in the original message of this thread where the claim is made "After 70 years of trying we haven't built an economic traditional nuclear reactor.") I think it's just easier to notice "misleading or false statements" when they contradict what we like to thin…

>I think it's just easier to notice "misleading or false statements" when they contradict what we like to think rather than when they are going in the same direction. That is likely true, but what is your point? The statement I said was false and misleading was in the message that started this thread: >After 70 years of trying we haven't built an economic traditional nuclear reactor. Are you saying that was a true st…

> That is likely true, but what is your point? The statement I said was false and misleading was in the message that started this thread

You realize the part I was quoting started with "I rarely see that here".

Obviously, my sentence was not "the element that you say is incorrect is in fact correct" but rather "that is not a surprise that you notice incorrect element when they are saying something you don't like". This second part recognizes that the element may be incorrect. The point is when you say "I rarely see that here": your impressions have no value, they do not correspond to any reality.

> Are you saying that was a true statement?

I am saying that it is not a worst statement as the one of yours I've quoted. The problem of the statement you quoted is that it is open to interpretation: what is "built", what is "economic", what is "traditional".

Of course, you will pretend it is "false" because you will find one exception, or you will say "it's economic without the artificial extra costs that I have arbitrarily decided are the results of baddies because I don't like them"

I personally think this sentence is bad because it's way too imprecise and generalist. I think only idiots will think it is "false", and only idiots will think it is "true", the reality is that this sentence cannot be called "true" or "false" as it is true to some extend and false to some extend.

> This sort of incessant questioning is a form of sealioning.

Once again you miss the point. I don't care if your statement is true or not, or precise or not. My point is that you are blaming someone for not doing what you don't do yourself.

Your sentence was, according to your own standard (not mine, YOURS), objectively pretty bad (which is not the same as "incorrect"):

1) "the ONLY issue" is obviously highly debatable, as what is an issue for someone may not be an issue for someone else (or be a "small issue"), and it highly depends of the objective and what people care about

2) "the most expensive form of power EVER CREATED". This is technically 100% incorrect: it is totally unreasonable to pretend that modern solar is a more expensive form of power than the form of power used one or two centuries ago. Of course, you can answer "it's obviously not what I mean", but I know that and I don't say you have made a mistake, what I'm saying is that you are the one reacting to such approximations if they are "anti-nuclear".

3) "the MOST EXPENSIVE". Again, while it can be true, it is not at all trivial and even "decidable". In a parallel thread, you admit yourself that you take the "average", which is a very very bad reasoning: if a country decided to build a series of crap nuclear plant with turbines of sub-par efficiency, according to you, it would objectively mean that the nuclear power will intrinsically be worse. A better metric instead of the average would be to take the minimum: it corresponds to the real potential of the technology, probably ignoring old technology (so it is also a good thing to do for nuclear) (sure, there may be circumstantial effect, but at first order, they exist in all the forms, so it's fair. While it is not perfect, it is anyway already way better than taking the average). If we do that, solar power is better than nuclear power. And this is only with the US numbers, but you can easily decompose by state and cherry-pick the ones going in one way or another, or add other countries in the world. It scientifically does not make sense, the numbers that you use cannot answer the question of knowing if the form of power is "more expensive" or not in a debate about future decision, especially when they are all so close.

4) the fact that the sentence is a very naive generalization.

Again, let's be clear: I'm not criticizing you for your statement, or saying your statement is incorrect.

What I'm saying is that someone would have behave exactly like you, would have written exactly the same kind of statement, would have been as clear and precise, but it would have been anti-nuclear and you would have said "yet another example of anti-nuclear being lying or misleading".

> I think a charitable reading of my sentence would have understood what I meant.

This is a good summary: you are asking people to be charitable when reading your sentence and try to understand what you mean by refitting the terms to make sure the sentence is true, but you don't do that to others.

As I've said, the statement that you are saying is a lie is true "in some extend", and, if you really believe in what you've said to me, you should just be charitable and understand what they mean in order to refit the terms so that this sentence is true.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#324
post #309
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The latest report from Lazard on LCOE also gives similar numbers: I'm not convinced you read the doc you cited. In it, it clearly states that the levelized cost of energy for solar PV rooftop residential ranges from $115/MWH while gas peaking is $114/MWH and nuclear is $141. Your source also states quite clearly that these costs depend on the circumstances (i.e., each case is a case) and it points to unsubsidized c…

>I'm not convinced you read the doc you cited. I guess I should point out these kind of insults are against the site guidelines. >In it, it clearly states that the levelized cost of energy for solar PV rooftop residential ranges from $115/MWH while gas peaking is $114/MWH and nuclear is $141. You are quoting the lowest value in each range, you need to consider the entire range: $117 to $282 Rooftop residential $115 t…

> I guess I should point out these kind of insults are against the site guidelines.

It's not an insult. It's a clear reference to the fact that your source does not support your claim, and it actually rejects it.

> You are quoting the lowest value in each range, you need to consider the entire range:

I'm actually not. If you read the source you cited, you'll notice that they provide a range of values for their estimates of what would be the levelized cost for energy from multiple sources.

The observed real world cases fall within the whole range. This means that they report real world examples of residential rooftop PV panels costing well below alternatives such as Nuclear.

If your thesis was that residential rooftop PV panels were the most expensive source of energy, your own reference refutes your baseless claim. You have to intentionally ignore all the cheapest real world examples of PV installations to proceed to argue they are the most expensive.

If you insist in arguing about statistical nonsense such as "I can find a PV panel that is both terribly expensive and generates no energy at all" then go right ahead, but cherrypicking that as your absolute reference would be disingenuous.

> Yes that is why there is a range.

The range does not exist so that people could lie and misrepresent the data. If the range covers examples of residential PV panels generating cheaper energy than nuclear or even gas, you should not discard them either because you either failed to read the data or tried to misrepresent it.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#325
post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and for some time 100% of France's nuclear reactors were down, either due to maintenance or heat.

This simply never happened. It's a matter of public record [1], it shouldn't be hard to check your numbers and see that they're wrong... [1]: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight...

That link doesn't contradict what I said? I said in summer last year (almost?, at the time I saw 2 different sources, one French said all, one German said almost all) all nuclear power plants were offline. Macron even went on TV arguing that they pulled forward maintenance to "prepare for the winter to support the German's lack of Gas" (seems not to happened according to your link, they were on record low output at the turn of the year).

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common nuke bro story, but it's nonsense. The actual reason is that plutonium has negative value. It costs more to incorporate it in new fuel rods than it would cost to make fuel rods with freshly enriched uranium.

That seems to not account for societal and storage costs. I see too many people extrapolate stuff into "it's not the absolute cheapest we can diversify into pushing the cost off to future generations rather than being responsible for our own creations".

I'm sorry you can't accept a correct argument.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#327
post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One person identified as having gotten cancer from Fukushima. Most of the cancers would be in a larger population and could not be distinguished from the large background of cancers. That doesn't mean they didn't (or won't) happen, or that regulation must assume they didn't/won't happen. Regulation is not like criminal law; radiation is not presumed innocent until proven guilty.

That's kinda my point — in the court of public opinion, nuclear is unable to win. This does actually matter despite the deaths from coal etc. being massively higher by the same measures.

I agree that fossil fuel use should be aggressively reduced. In the past, that would have meant more nuclear. It does not mean more nuclear now. Reducing fossil fuel use has ceased to be an argument for nuclear construction.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#328
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It doesn't matter where the costs come from in this case, they are not covered by the money EDF has accumulated from selling power, which was the point. That by itself isn't an issue. Plenty of companies take on debt to invest, for instance. My company intends to take €40bn of new debt in the next decade or so, and our investors don't see it as an issue. That's why unit costs are important, that's what dictates whe…

>That by itself isn't an issue. Plenty of companies take on debt to invest, for instance. My company intends to take €40bn of new debt in the next decade or so, and our investors don't see it as an issue. But that isn't the case here. When the debt causes you to be bailed out by the government, is is an issue, wouldn't you agree? EDF isn't a car maker that has to invest in a transition to electric cars (or whatever),…

> But that isn't the case here. When the debt causes you to be bailed out by the government, is is an issue, wouldn't you agree?

EDF's current situation is an issue. My point, however, is that this is not related to electricity pricing, nuclear or not.

> Since the organisation is nationalised, that money will come from the taxpayers.

Yes, so what? France's general budget received tens of billions in dividends from EDF in recent years, would you say EDF saved as much for the taxpayer?

> Which decommissioned reactor are you thinking of?

maine Yankee, for instance.

> Apart from that, the "end result" for decommissioning projects are always "and then the federal government takes over from here".

That's unrelated to dismantling. This issue is about waste storage in the US.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#329
post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This simply never happened. It's a matter of public record [1], it shouldn't be hard to check your numbers and see that they're wrong... [1]: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight...

That link doesn't contradict what I said? I said in summer last year (almost?, at the time I saw 2 different sources, one French said all, one German said almost all) all nuclear power plants were offline. Macron even went on TV arguing that they pulled forward maintenance to "prepare for the winter to support the German's lack of Gas" (seems not to happened according to your link, they were on record low output at t…

The link shows ~25 reactors were up in the summer at the low point, out of 58.

If you want another link: [2] states that about half of the reactors were down. I don't know what news sites you use, but "almost all" or "all" reactors being down is simply false news.

[2]: https://www.grs.de/en/news/situation-nuclear-power-plants-fr...

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would recommend reading the article. The paper they discussing projects .003 USD per kilowatt hour.

The minute someone builds one and has the receipts and waste disposal set up, I am all ears. Really. But every generation of nuclear plant has promised "power too cheap to meter". The last 3 generations all failed to deliver (and have been ruinously expensive). Gen 4 isn't expected to start commercial operations until 2035 I think? This is my key objection to nuclear: I feel it cannot even be assessed because people…

> The minute someone builds one and has the receipts and waste disposal set up, I am all ears. Really.

> This is my key objection to nuclear: I feel it cannot even be assessed because people insist on talking in theory. And with tech as complex and power dense etc as this tech, theory is never even close to reality.

> But I cant help feeling nuclear fission is as far from an economically viable, reproducible, sustainable product as fusion is.

I don't think we're operating from the same base set of facts. Fission is a reality now. Entire countries rely on it for their entire grid, safely and reliably. TFA was just saying everyone could, and I agree. It's not a transition of kind, but of degree, which is much easier.

This is not to say solar and wind have to place (which triggers a different kind of antibodies), just that fission does too.

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