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Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

scanalyst.fourmilab.ch

311–320 of 371 posts

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#311
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> And the power having been sold and used at a price that did not fund those costs, they are well and truly screwed. >I don't know where you read that, but that's nowhere in actual reasonable sources. We know for a fact that France nationalized EDF last year and the debt is at currently 65 bn euros and growing. Since the company has been nationalized, the taxpayers are on the hook. I wouldn't personally go so far a…

The debt doesn't come from unit costs, EDF has been profitable for decades with the current rates.

65 billions in debt and having to be saved by the state means you are not profitable. It doesn't matter where the costs come from in this case, they are not covered by the money EDF has accumulated from selling power, which was the point.

This debt is already a reality - and growing with interest rates if nothing else - and we haven't even gotten to the many billions more that have to be invested in the beat-up old plants to keep them running.

We also don't know how many billions more that have to be paid to decommission them and for storing the waste. Nobody knows this yet.

Nuclear power has always been a strategic choice, with extensive international treaties and special conditions in place to make it a reality despite it not being financially viable in the traditional sense. The costs have been socialised and pushed to future generations, deliberately.

Now that several decades have passed, we are the generations that have to start paying.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#312
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given how few people got cancer from Fukushima, this doesn't really help make the fears seem rational. One death from cancer, 2313 from relocating: https://ourworldindata.org/what-was-the-death-toll-from-cher...

One person identified as having gotten cancer from Fukushima. Most of the cancers would be in a larger population and could not be distinguished from the large background of cancers. That doesn't mean they didn't (or won't) happen, or that regulation must assume they didn't/won't happen. Regulation is not like criminal law; radiation is not presumed innocent until proven guilty.

That's kinda my point — in the court of public opinion, nuclear is unable to win.

This does actually matter despite the deaths from coal etc. being massively higher by the same measures.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#313
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think that worst case is, and how are you estimating it?

If Russia will blow up Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant in Ukraine, then huge area of productive land and sea can be heavily contaminated, which can lead to global famine, which can kill millions.

This might be news to you, but Russia has the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons and can kill billions of people, if it wanted to. They get to pick the amount of damage that they want to cause and then do that much damage. Anything from no damage to possible end of humanity. Similarly then can contaminate whatever area they want to.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant doesn't really factor in to that picture.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#314
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The debt doesn't come from unit costs, EDF has been profitable for decades with the current rates.

65 billions in debt and having to be saved by the state means you are not profitable. It doesn't matter where the costs come from in this case, they are not covered by the money EDF has accumulated from selling power, which was the point. This debt is already a reality - and growing with interest rates if nothing else - and we haven't even gotten to the many billions more that have to be invested in the beat-up old p…

> It doesn't matter where the costs come from in this case, they are not covered by the money EDF has accumulated from selling power, which was the point.

That by itself isn't an issue. Plenty of companies take on debt to invest, for instance. My company intends to take €40bn of new debt in the next decade or so, and our investors don't see it as an issue.

That's why unit costs are important, that's what dictates whether the activity is reasonable, and how much debt can be supported by it.

> We also don't know how many billions more that have to be paid to decommission them and for storing the waste. Nobody knows this yet.

Plants have been decomissioned in the past already. Because of that, we have pretty reasonable estimates of how much dismantling costs. If you have specific points about why past dismantled structures are different from future ones, feel free to expose them. Otherwise, the "we don't know" discourse is basically FUD.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#315
post #195
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

False dichotomy; nuclear currently costs about the same as the combination of PV with enough Li-Ion batteries that it kinda looks the same from a "baseload?" perspective, and Li-Ion is the most expensive of the various options currently vaguely near the right scale for storage in that kind of timeframe. From the "everything else except baseload?" perspective, PV can also be one of the cheapest power sources around. A…

Yes, we are talking about base load. We have about a football field's worth of spent fuel sitting in casks and pools. That's not per reactor; that's in total in the US since we started running nuclear power stations. In fast neutron reactors, this could power all of the US electrical needs for 150 years without requiring any new sources of uranium (no mines, no seawater extraction, nothing!) AND would eliminate the n…

> We have about a football field's worth of spent fuel sitting in casks and pools. That's not per reactor; that's in total in the US since we started running nuclear power stations

Yes I know.

Counterintuitively, this makes it politically worse, as people can imagine a football field much more easily than approximately the mass of Mt. Everest in CO2 every 5 years.

People :P

> Far more compact than batteries,

Yes but irrelevant; assuming 20% efficient cells at 10% capacity factor, you can store 36 hours of output in a (~10cm~ edit: 1mm)[0] thick layer of battery under each cell (not that one should put the cells there, this is just for a sense of scale).

> wouldn't compete with other large scale transitions that need batteries like electric cars

True in some senses, false in others; they're both competing for the same investment money.

> and would work even during either a week-long blizzard, tornado, or hurricane.

Kinda, depending on the details. There are weather conditions that interfere with safe running of nuclear plants, and in the other direction if you have a large power grid (so all of North America except Texas), the blizzards and hurricanes don't affect the whole zone anyway.

> Batteries offset the power needs from dusk to dawn, but most solar farms do not build capacity for extended (multi-day to week) outages.

For now, sure; but that's a choice to go for low-hanging fruit first rather than an obligation.

> A single tornado let alone a hurricane could wipe out gigawatts of solar or wind capacity.

That sounds like a problem with planning permission or construction if the plants can't cope with wherever they happen to be installed.

> Diversification in energy sources is a good thing. […] I strongly disagree that everyone needs the same solution.

Absolutely agree. Even the fact that the average combined price of PV+LiIon being comparable to nuclear hides the variation in both (and those are just two options).

> the US must take an aggressive role in reducing its own fossil fuel emissions within its borders, since those are the only emissions we can directly control. Diplomacy and economic incentives can only go so far across international borders, but building an maintaining ties overseas is obviously of great importance for that reason. None of this "America First" crap.

Yes indeed.

Thing is, I'm not American, so my perspective here is "appealing to American politicians only works if you can tell them what's in it for them", and a big part of that is jobs for people in their state, and that is something I can't map on to any particular power source…

but I'll leave that to others, politics is so not my thing.

[0] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=20+watts+*+36+hours+%2F...

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#316
post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly how capital works. You don't buy the machine that takes 10X as long to deliver, costs more, has unending waste storage liabilities, and is uninsurable.

No, it’s clearly not how it works. National scale investment like the power grid are not subject to the same kind of rules that classical investment because the state can and do print money. For all the bad things I have to say about the Inflation Reduction Act for exemple, it will result in significant investment in renewable with money which for all intent and purpose appeared out of thin air (with all the impact t…

The money represents real resources. Printing more of it doesn't make more resources, it just moves some power over the allocation of those resources to the government printing it.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#317
post #308
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I rarely see that here. What I tend to see are people who don't like the idea of nuclear power making misleading or false statements about nuclear power. (Like in the original message of this thread where the claim is made "After 70 years of trying we haven't built an economic traditional nuclear reactor.") I think it's just easier to notice "misleading or false statements" when they contradict what we like to thin…

>I think it's just easier to notice "misleading or false statements" when they contradict what we like to think rather than when they are going in the same direction. That is likely true, but what is your point? The statement I said was false and misleading was in the message that started this thread: >After 70 years of trying we haven't built an economic traditional nuclear reactor. Are you saying that was a true st…

>> After 70 years of trying we haven't built an economic traditional nuclear reactor.

> Are you saying that was a true statement?

As the op, yes. See:

The limited liability vs Fukushima cost of at least $150B.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nuclear...

And this review of the economics by DIW berlin.

> According to “numerous scientific studies,” none of the world’s more than 600 nuclear power stations have ever been economically viable, and the plants could only be operated for years due to government subsidies, the institute claims.

https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/-nuclear-has-never-b...

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#318
post #117
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What does the future look like when we have 10 times the efficency on energy use Energy efficiency improvements of that magnitude don’t exist. In most industries, getting a 10% efficiency improvement would be groundbreaking. These are limits dictated by physics.

It exists for some segments, it happened for household lighting.

And it happened for computing across huge orders of magnitude.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it’s clearly not how it works. National scale investment like the power grid are not subject to the same kind of rules that classical investment because the state can and do print money. For all the bad things I have to say about the Inflation Reduction Act for exemple, it will result in significant investment in renewable with money which for all intent and purpose appeared out of thin air (with all the impact t…

The money represents real resources. Printing more of it doesn't make more resources, it just moves some power over the allocation of those resources to the government printing it.

Money has not been backed by resources since the 1970s.

Re: Nuclear fission fuel is inexhaustible (2022)

#320
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is from 2017, yet reports number from 2013. In 2017, the total provisioning was 28~Bn€. Also French reactor are still working (and producing returns), as opposed to German reactors. If you focus on dismantling costs, the example of Maine Yankee [1]: is way less dramatic: "In January 2002 Maine Yankee put the total decommissioning cost at $635 million." The number provided for UK reactors is ludicrous comp…

> whereas France has a deep storage facility on the way. That has been "on the way" for how many years exactly? The reality is that after almost > 50 years of nuclear power we have exactly one long-term storage facility world-wide which has been commissioned last year (Finland). And somehow that was hailed as a success. Also what do you think the storage cost for deep storage facilities are?

> That has been "on the way" for how many years exactly?

Research is completed, we're currently in the process of anti-nuclear groups using their legal recourse options. This project is not time-critical, so there is no reason to speed that up.

> Also what do you think the storage cost for deep storage facilities are?

Initial investment estimates are between €8bn and €16bn [1].

[1], in french: https://www.ccomptes.fr/system/files/2019-07/20190704-rappor...

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