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Is everything falling apart?

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Re: Is everything falling apart?

#321

Post by fullstop »

refurb wrote: post #255
giantg2 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My grandfather worked for the steel mills. Some workers didn't get anything for their pensions. He was one of the lucky ones and got something, like 10 cents on the dollar. I think they even stopped sending them before he died (remember him saying something about that was the last check and complaining about the company).

Pensions are all insured in the US

It got complicated when the steel mills went bankrupt and the pensions were taken over by federal agencies. The bankrupt company, in this case, was paying more for pensioners than what the federal agencies paid.

I'm not entirely clear on why this was, but it may have been that they were not fully insured or that promises made by the steel mills were not backed by anything. In these cases, some pensioners actually had to give money back [1].

This happened to my grandfather, who worked in the steel mills in western Pennsylvania. If you ever wanted to see him red-faced mad, this was the topic to discuss.

1. https://www.mcall.com/news/all-retirees1118-story.html

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#323

Post by 2ion »

karpierz wrote: post #267
TimPC wrote: post #211

I'd argue that the greater risk of things falling apart is economic rather than political. We've built our society on two near-ponzi schemes that are in danger of falling apart. The first is pension funds which are paid into by current workers to pay out for past workers. Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from t…

> Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. Pension funds inherently depend on increases in production. Population growth is one factor, but technological development can also increase production. > The other near-ponzi scheme is the real estate market. In my city of Toronto, average real estate prices have gone from 2x average income in 1972 to 16x average income today. Hello from a V…

>> Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. > >Pension funds inherently depend on increases in production. Population growth is one factor, but technological development can also increase production.

Interestingly, capital returns and population growth are (unquestionably?) on exponential curves. So, are production factors too slow to evolve along with the exponentials? Maybe they are, because of waste, lack of recycling, raw resources decline and environmental damage.

>> The other near-ponzi scheme is the real estate market. In my city of Toronto, average real estate prices have gone from 2x average income in 1972 to 16x average income today. > >Hello from a Vancouverite! I broadly agree with this point, and I'm not sure how to work our way out of a housing bubble beyond popping it and dealing with the aftermath. Too many people are invested in the status quo, so any politician who tries to pop it will be crucified for destroying the savings of a large portion of the population.

You could argue that in the same time frame, world population has more than doubled, and because the cost of capital is a lot cheaper elsewhere than in Canada, pressure on attractive living space in peaceful and stable countries has increased exponentially. At this point, the "liberal" view on capital flows and capital control, the fuel of foreign direct investments of Western countries into overseas properties since WWII, came back to bite the originators of the idea in the ass.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#325

Post by TimPC »

almost_usual wrote: post #310
TimPC wrote: post #211

I'd argue that the greater risk of things falling apart is economic rather than political. We've built our society on two near-ponzi schemes that are in danger of falling apart. The first is pension funds which are paid into by current workers to pay out for past workers. Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from t…

US real estate has gone up significantly in _desirable_ markets. There are plenty of cities in the rust belt where neighborhoods are in decay, you can buy a home for 20k if you wanted. What we’re going to see is either govts incentivize people move back to these places. Or more housing in desirable locations. I think the former will happen more than the later.

Agreed. And we've seen crises in the neighbourhoods in decay and significant adverse effects for those who don't get the housing investment gains that much of society is built on. The numbers seem to indicate that will be something of the new normal for everyone rather than just the unlucky few in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#326

Post by sergiotapia »

aisengard wrote: post #155
bryanlarsen wrote: post #107

We were getting close to a fairly positive future. There are three basic constraints to material and non-material goods: - capital - labour - energy There are other raw materials, but they aren't limiting factors. For example, processed Lithium is in short supply right now, but it's not raw Lithium that's the constraint. We don't have enough Lithium mines and processing facilities. capital/labour/energy, in other wor…

> So a crisis was invented. Are you saying that the millions upon millions who died (not to mention the untold millions who are suffering long-term health problems), didn't actually die? Or that what they died from (a highly contagious and infectious novel virus) was engineered?

It's a proven fact that COVID was bio-engineered, is it not?

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#328

Post by andrewclunn »

NationalPark wrote: post #263
gsibble wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't a minority. As of 2021, there are more Republicans than Democrats. https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferen...

I think your summary is obscuring some of the nuance in that data. What it shows is that independent voters self-identify as "lean rep"/"lean dem" based on their approval of the current president, which is low right now. Historically though, self-identified independents lean dem more than they lean rep (data in your link). Consider that the last time a Republican presidential candidate won the popular vote was in 200…

You break out a poll to cast a group as fringe. Other people bring up other polls (more recent ones) to counter that argument, and then you shift to a different line of evidence citing "historical trends." Please, take this advice to heart, you are clearly trying to justify a conclusion with whatever evidence you can grab at hand. Take a step back and ask yourself if tribal loyalty is clouding your judgement.

We are all allowed (at least in the United States) to change our minds on things, but we can get in our own way. Lots of people seem to be changing their minds these days based on recognizing that their trust in some institution, process, or brand was misplaced. That might be you in a little while, and if it is, don't hate who you once were or once believed. Here's wishing you a good journey on your search for truth.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#329

Post by shadowofneptune »

oktroomer wrote: post #293
4ggr0 wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the thing which bothers me the most is that people don't even try to educate themselves. What do you think my reaction was, when I first heard of trans-people as a young teenager? Of course I laughed a bit and wondered why people think that genders are fictional and why a man would ever be able to be a woman. But with time I got more curious, educated myself, thought about it, and I think I understand it pretty…

Quoted post unavailable.

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Re: Is everything falling apart?

#330

Post by testbjjl »

It’s becoming increasingly inconvenient for the minority to control the majority in this country. This shift has been discussed for decades. I would expect more “dumb” to come.

Immigrants bring Covid so we need to control the border, but Covid is a conspiracy. My candidates won on a ballot where my candidate that lost on the same ballot was cheated. The democratic presidents showed weakness to Putin, but somehow the insurrection does not.

Most Americans are unprepared to compete against others who view life objectively and earned advanced degrees and practice introspection. The math books are threatening. Teachers shouldn’t teach grade schoolers subjects taken from graduate courses (CRT). There is no way this doesn’t backfire. Too many contradictions to enumerate.

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