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Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

economist.com

321–330 of 556 posts

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.

Do you have data that supports what you think?

Autopilot isn't even designed to be used without a human driver. Which confirms that even Tesla doesn't think its better than a human.

It can't even handle intersections.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#322
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That article describes a failure of Tesla’s system that had terrible consequences. It gives no data comparing with human performance.

That article describes a systematic design defect of Tesla’s system. (It’s a defect that all camera based systems have. They are designed to ignore stationary objects because they can’t adequately distinguish background objects from obstacles.) Car and Driver tested this last year, and the Tesla ran into the stationary dummy nearly every time. This is something humans have almost no problem dealing with.

It has been a problem, but it is definitely not an intrinsic defect of camera based solutions. The stopped truck example has been examined in depth with rooted Tesla's. The Tesla actually detects the truck, but fails to fully recognize the scenario and attempts to drive under it! See also, greentheonly's work on Twitter on researching this.

Ignoring some stopped objects is only a temporary limitation.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Old people can't be expected to walk far or drive scooters and bikes everyday. Yet that's what one sees in Copenhagen.

And Copenhagen is well known for its high hills, right? Not everyone lives in Holland and Copenhagen and other flat places. Also, while it's definitely great that Scandinavians live their healthy and slightly ascetic lifestyle, it's not everyones cup of tea outside of those specific nations/cultures. Maybe it should be, by all means if this is what young people want they should do it one day when they grow old. But i…

"And Copenhagen is well known for its high hills, right?" No, but Oslo is, and they are gradually phasing cars out of the city centre

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#324
post #150
post #133

If we expect driverless cars to be further delayed and we continue building our cities to encourage micromobility (bikes, electric scooters, segregated lanes, car free streets, etc.) then at which point does the value of the driverless car become moot because we no longer drive? Does this sound unlikely? Consider European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam which have encouraged cycling over the last two decades and…

Lots of people don’t live in urban cores. And it’s outside those cores where people can drive significant distances where self-driving has the most value. I actually expect we will eventually see self-driving on limited access highways and other “easy” situations. Self-driving in cities and as taxis may be indefinitely postponed.

> Lots of people don’t live in urban cores.

That's what has to change. Both the location of people, and the definition of "urban core".

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#325
post #133

If we expect driverless cars to be further delayed and we continue building our cities to encourage micromobility (bikes, electric scooters, segregated lanes, car free streets, etc.) then at which point does the value of the driverless car become moot because we no longer drive? Does this sound unlikely? Consider European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam which have encouraged cycling over the last two decades and…

But why do we even need to cluster in massive cities, when today’s technologies allow for remote work for pretty much any non physical type of work? Accountants, developers, designers, architects, customer support, and so on can all be done remotely. That would reduce both the need to drive and to cram people in overcrowded public transport options.

Physical interaction is still extremely important to societies and individuals; not everything can be virtualized or made remote without loss of effectiveness or efficiency, at least not yet.

For personal interactions, you have face-to-face talking and generally (in the context of clustering) access to many people with aligned interests to talk and interact with in person in real time.

Culturally, you have art installations, exhibitions, and all sorts of activities like musical concerts, theater, etc. that aren't exactly reproduced remotely.

In terms of work and hobbies, clusters can give access to tools, workshops, that might be too expensive to have at home. Say using a hackerspace/fab lab vs. having a complete electronics lab in your house or a laser cutter.

All of those should be more readily accessible (in terms of transportation time and cost) if you are well located within a large hub.

Of course, remote does have significant cost benefits in some respects (housing and supplies), and for some professions the benefits of cities aren't strictly necessary, but clustering and the physical world should not be underestimated or thought obsolete.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#326
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is stopping American cities from changing their infrastructure investment from automobiles to micromobility? Is there one, big, standout reason that could be addressed? It's a change that takes decades and it's fighting against incumbents with deep pockets but it could be done.

Democracy. Other than Manhattan, everywhere else a majority of residents own cars (Even in Manhattan I think it’s like 40% or something own a car). Moreover, the last 70 years of migration have led to a common pattern of people living in the suburbs and commuting via car to their workplace - replacing that with micromobility feels like a threat to their way of life and they will fight it vigorously. What we actually…

Car ownership is declining and will continue to decline because it's an expense many people would rather avoid.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#327
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We all have cars because cars are incredibly useful; Got 4 young kids and you need to get groceries for the week? This only work that way because that's how your life is structured, not that it is a law of nature. If you live near a grocery store, you wouldn't have to buy enough grocery to last you a week. You can just buy what you need.

And then go back to the grocery store every day. What a waste of time. You can also wash your laundry but hand. The reality is we have these appliances (including cars) because they increase our personal efficiency quite a bit.

Those personal appliance have very real cost, especially in term of how much space it takes up on the roads and the amount of parking lots allocated. All of these increased the distance you have to walk to get somewhere and increased congestion.

I saw traffic in Sagion, Vietnam. Believe me, cars stick out like sore thumb compared to motorcycles and bikes, and if everyone uses car, traffic would basically grind to a halt.

With the way we use cars in America, it's very inefficient.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#328
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think many will still have cars, although they'll have to be electric [0]. Will the driverless car be as cheap as the second hand Nissan Leaf? Also, perhaps the car isn't used to commute every day when the weather is good and you aren't battling through traffic. In Europe cycling distance to work within a city is as quick as driving. If you aren't quite fit enough you can get an electric bike (very popular amongst…

> Will the driverless car be as cheap as the second hand Nissan Leaf? Eventually, yes. That is the march of technology. Especially if Elon Musk's bet that it can be done using only cameras is right - then the hardware cost is the same as an iPhone. If LIDAR is also required, it will take longer for the prices to go down. This year I bought a 2-year old used econobox car (63 horsepower of pure fury). It already came w…

I am not at all bitter that my brand new 60K electric car does not have top-down camera ability. Or CarPlay. No, I am not bitter at all.

I drove a rental Nissan Rogue a few weeks back while we were in DC and it had top-down camera, auto steer, adaptive cruise, heated everything, etc. And that is not exactly the most desirable car you can buy. The technology really has trickled all the way to the bottom, but some of it needs to trickle back up...

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#329
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you thinking of full on rental like Enterprise or car sharing like Zipcar? Zipcar is pretty dang easy and it's what car-free people think when you absolutely need a car for a trip.

Yeah I was thinking of enterprise. Its just weird some people think you can survive the suburbs without a car.

You can. Just not American suburbs, apparently.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#330
post #329
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I was thinking of enterprise. Its just weird some people think you can survive the suburbs without a car.

You can. Just not American suburbs, apparently.

Depends on the density and transit available. There are some American suburbs of big cities where you can live with no car, but not many.
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