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The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

electrek.co

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Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#321

Post by g8oz »

coryfklein wrote: post #215
ChuckMcM wrote: post #103

The aggressiveness of the price drops on solar is pretty amazing. I just lost one of the inverters on my grid-tie system after it had run trouble free for 13 years. So we're looking at the first "major" repair to the system I installed in 2003. And in 2003 my 5.2kW of panels on my roof cost $38,000 before subsidies and $19,000 after. 28 panels, two 2.5kW inverters, net about 4.2kW of generation. I priced out replacin…

> And that is why it is a huge problem for the power companies It is a problem, but not necessarily in the way you may be thinking. Peak residential power usage is in the evening when solar isn't available. Power companies therefore end up spinning down coal and natural gas during peak solar, then just spinning them back up again as the sun begins to set. [1] So you haven't replaced the coal and natural gas plants, y…

"Lets not move forward until every conceivable issue is solved" - said every entrenched interest ever.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#322

Post by g8oz »

jmcgough wrote: post #80
alex20 wrote: post #48

And here in the USA some states are punishing solar customers who sell their energy, by taxing them on infrastructure costs, to protect the big energy companies. Their reasoning for taxing them is to "maintain the lines and equipment". The counter-argument to that is, "customers who consume pay taxes and fee's to maintain the lines, and on top of that, the government is giving them tax breaks to help "maintain the li…

My gf is an electromechanical engineer at a solar power startup (and obviously supportive of solar power initiatives). Just asked her about this, and she said that: 1) the electrical grid wasn't designed for transferring power this way, and it can damage the grid 2) because solar power isn't a constant power source (say, a cloud blocks the sun for a minute), power companies need to keep power available for someone wh…

It goes both ways. Widespread grid-tied distributed generation can save on distribution equipment maintenance wear and tear further upstream. Neither side has honestly acknowledged or studied the trade offs.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#323

Post by narag »

ptaipale wrote: post #86
alex20 wrote: post #48

And here in the USA some states are punishing solar customers who sell their energy, by taxing them on infrastructure costs, to protect the big energy companies. Their reasoning for taxing them is to "maintain the lines and equipment". The counter-argument to that is, "customers who consume pay taxes and fee's to maintain the lines, and on top of that, the government is giving them tax breaks to help "maintain the li…

Their reasoning for taxing them is to "maintain the lines and equipment". That is a very valid reason. Solar power - like wind - is erratic in nature and has much higher requirements for the power transmission network than e.g. hydroelectric, nuclear of fossil power. The erratic nature is even worsened by subsidies which encourage people to peak production, regardless of consumption. The way these subsidies have been…

That is a valid reason while they can get away with it. That won't be the case for long. As soon as the storage costs follow the panels', the grid at the current cost will be a very hard sell. Of course, providing a good location, etc.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#324

Post by icanhackit »

msellout wrote: post #291
derefr wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems backwards. The aggregate preferences and habits of humans should be seen as an incentivizing force for the creations of new technologies, not the other way around.

Yikes. Yes, of course technology is driven by human preferences. But, No, humans must occasionally accept that certain habits are not sustainable given current and near-future technologies.

I generally agree with your position but in this particular scenario the people with the greatest capacity to adjust their behavior are the people who will be affected the least financially by a hike in peak prices and thus less likely to change or more likely to invest in solar at home, while those with the least flexibility in work arrangements and spending, e.g. lower income earners working in the services sector, will be affected negatively the most and unable to work around it.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#325

Post by ori_b »

amenghra wrote: post #236
S_A_P wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can validate. The problem with electricity is that there is no large scale storage like there is for other forms of energy like NG and Crude. Until someone comes along and figures out how to store electricity, this will continue to cause grief to power companies. Power plants are really just options, if the price per kWh is at a certain point then it makes sense to spin up or take down a plant and generate power. Add…

Some countries store energy by pumping water up a dam. Seems efficient.

Flywheels are another option: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flywheel_energy_storage

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#326

Post by g8oz »

ptaipale wrote: post #224
comatose_kid wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Oil, coal and gas received more than four times the $120 billion paid out in incentives for renewables including wind, solar and biofuels" source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-11-12/fossil-fue...

However, those subsidies are not paid in the same geographical and political regions at all . Sun and wind subsidies are paid out in places like EU countries, especially Germany, where they distort the market. Gasoline on the other hand is taxed highly. Oil, coal and gas get subsidies in places like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran or Malaysia, where they distort the market. That Venezuela distorts its markets in some w…

Fossil fuels have unpriced externalities even in places like Germany. And what you call market distortion re renewables in Germany is more appropriately called investment. The proof is the global solar industry that that country singlehandedly kickstarted with it's subsidies. A similar story with wind energy and Denmark.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#327

Post by toomuchtodo »

epistasis wrote: post #308
ssmoot wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'd take over 1 BILLION Powerwalls to store half the daily usage in the US (using old usage numbers off Wikipedia). I wonder if there's enough raw materials to make that realistic. And how to you manage recycling, repair, replacement, end-of-life concerns for all those batteries on that scale? Not asking a sarcastic hypothetical. Genuinely curious. It's hard to wrap my head around numbers that big. For reference I u…

Just throwing around "BILLION" doesn't make it seem big, you need to compare it the unit size. A single gigafactory is going to produce 35 GWh in a year, which is about 5.3 million power walls a year. If their lifespan is 10 years, than we need to produce 1e9 power walls / 10 years = 100 million powerwalls/year to maintain that capacity. So we'd only need 20 gigafactories worth to do this. And with wind and proper gr…

What if we used tens of millions of electric vehicles on the road as grid storage?

Tesla has already planned on it: https://i.imgur.com/oLBNeW4.png | https://i.imgur.com/pectzXn.png

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#328

Post by toomuchtodo »

ssmoot wrote: post #294
jobu wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When storing a kWh costs $0.10, and there's also adaptive pricing to match supply and demand better, these problems will melt away. If the math and assumptions in this article are correct, then that's exactly the (wholesale) price point Tesla is aiming for with the Powerwall: http://cleantechnica.com/2015/05/09/tesla-powerwall-powerblo... There are a couple other (not yet released) energy storage solutions mentione…

It'd take over 1 BILLION Powerwalls to store half the daily usage in the US (using old usage numbers off Wikipedia). I wonder if there's enough raw materials to make that realistic. And how to you manage recycling, repair, replacement, end-of-life concerns for all those batteries on that scale? Not asking a sarcastic hypothetical. Genuinely curious. It's hard to wrap my head around numbers that big. For reference I u…

Think about if Tesla vehicles were used instead of Powerwalls: https://i.imgur.com/oLBNeW4.png | https://i.imgur.com/pectzXn.png

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#329

Post by ssmoot »

epistasis wrote: post #308
ssmoot wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'd take over 1 BILLION Powerwalls to store half the daily usage in the US (using old usage numbers off Wikipedia). I wonder if there's enough raw materials to make that realistic. And how to you manage recycling, repair, replacement, end-of-life concerns for all those batteries on that scale? Not asking a sarcastic hypothetical. Genuinely curious. It's hard to wrap my head around numbers that big. For reference I u…

Just throwing around "BILLION" doesn't make it seem big, you need to compare it the unit size. A single gigafactory is going to produce 35 GWh in a year, which is about 5.3 million power walls a year. If their lifespan is 10 years, than we need to produce 1e9 power walls / 10 years = 100 million powerwalls/year to maintain that capacity. So we'd only need 20 gigafactories worth to do this. And with wind and proper gr…

That's over 3 Powerwalls every second. And I've got to think you're not going to see more than 75% original capacity in ten years as a best case?

I'm not as concerned about the factory as the supply chain, can we actually supply that much raw material, and what will mining it do to the environment? I assume lithium is much rarer than iron or copper. But I don't really know.

For reference 16 million vehicles were sold in the US in 2013, but many (most?) of those were trucks and large SUVs, which AFAIK aren't on the roadmap for any EV manufacturer right now. And then there's fleet/work vehicles, single car families in states without long distance transportation or quick chargers (like TX).

It makes me wonder if 20 years from now fuel cells won't completely obsolete batteries?

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#330

Post by ssmoot »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #328
ssmoot wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'd take over 1 BILLION Powerwalls to store half the daily usage in the US (using old usage numbers off Wikipedia). I wonder if there's enough raw materials to make that realistic. And how to you manage recycling, repair, replacement, end-of-life concerns for all those batteries on that scale? Not asking a sarcastic hypothetical. Genuinely curious. It's hard to wrap my head around numbers that big. For reference I u…

Think about if Tesla vehicles were used instead of Powerwalls: https://i.imgur.com/oLBNeW4.png | https://i.imgur.com/pectzXn.png

Your car isn't at the house while solar is being produced though for many/most people right? This seems unrealistic.
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