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OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

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Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#311

The fact that people here are looking at these numbers and saying "this is fine" is absolutely bonkers. Basically, it's a company that's not sustainable for two separate reasons. The first one is that they have an extremely high overhead. SG&A of 55% is really bad. The seconds reason is that their R&D costs are truly astronomical. They could probably cut those costs to some extent, but they're not going to cut them t…

They're not really losing ground to Anthropic. 5.5 was a bit better than 4.8. Fable was good, and was a jump over 4.8, but only incremental over 5.5. Anthropic is also likely losing money, right?

huh, I felt like (gpt5.5 I want to like gpt5.5 but it's like an evil genie: bugs are fixed, features are implemented, you are now a proud owner of a 2kloc file with a single function that makes you wish you had keybindings for horizontal scrolling

Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#312
post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More importanly they have moat

This. The fact that no one seems to understand that Anth and OAI don’t have a moat is beyond me.

They are working on the moat: corruption.

Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone else will be 5% more productive. Then no one is "more" productive. So everyone has a higher output, but the same wages and hours worked. There was only a gap when usable AI first came out, some contractors could do the same quantity of work in less time and enjoy time off or do more jobs. Now the gap has closed or is closing. And using AI now is more about not being less productive than peers who do use it.

That's not how productivity works. It's not a zero-sum game. If all construction workers can build houses 5% more efficiently, that's not the same as nothing changing. Depending on supply and demand, it means 5% more houses are built, or houses are 5% cheaper, or maybe 5% bigger, or some combination. Whether or not the construction workers all get a raise or 5% get fired (or both) depends on that supply and demand, b…

See the increase in CEO wages vs the increase in worker wages over the last 20 years of you want to know where that 5% will almost always go.

Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the venture model now though. Spend until profitable. Uber did it. It seems OpenAI could do it as well given we seem to be in a 2 horse race for foundation models and having capital to get better pushes them further ahead. Gemini is number 3 in this race

Uber’s situation was different, though. The reason Uber were bleeding money is because they purposefully made all their rides cheap to undercut the taxi businesses. People used Uber because it was cheaper than renting a taxi. Now you can’t really find taxis anywhere, even at airports it’s a lot more difficult than it used to be. Once the taxi business was disrupted enough, Uber’s pricing skyrocketed and customers had…

You still can get taxis, at least in Australia. And they hound you at the front of the airport.

They just consistently cost more and have worse service even after uber increased prices.

Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how productivity works. It's not a zero-sum game. If all construction workers can build houses 5% more efficiently, that's not the same as nothing changing. Depending on supply and demand, it means 5% more houses are built, or houses are 5% cheaper, or maybe 5% bigger, or some combination. Whether or not the construction workers all get a raise or 5% get fired (or both) depends on that supply and demand, b…

Why would the company pay more when they can just not pay more? The only things I can see happening is they might lower prices as competition ramps up, or in general as there is more supply for the same cost.

If there's sufficient demand, that's just what happens.

To try and explain one path: Company A doesn't raise wages but makes 5% more money. Company B pivots from Industry B into construction (because suddenly construction is having 5% fatter margins), and hires workers at more competitive wages to poach them from Company A. Company A forces to raise wages.

If there's a demand ceiling on housing it's a different story though.

Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. The fact that no one seems to understand that Anth and OAI don’t have a moat is beyond me.

Or they do. If their moat is so weak, where's Grok and Gemini in this race?

Gemini is fairly well used in business, anyone using the Google office suite uses Gemini.

Grok is only used when you want to sexually harass people on Twitter.

Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how productivity works. It's not a zero-sum game. If all construction workers can build houses 5% more efficiently, that's not the same as nothing changing. Depending on supply and demand, it means 5% more houses are built, or houses are 5% cheaper, or maybe 5% bigger, or some combination. Whether or not the construction workers all get a raise or 5% get fired (or both) depends on that supply and demand, b…

Why would the company pay more when they can just not pay more? The only things I can see happening is they might lower prices as competition ramps up, or in general as there is more supply for the same cost.

If labour supply is fixed and productivity goes up then the value and demand for labour goes up, driving up wages

Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#318
post #117

I'm really curious about something: how far will you go to support AI? Clearly they'll need to monetize things further, would you still use [whatever AI you are paying for] if the price was doubled? Tripled? Where would you stop and would you stop using AI altogether or would you look at competitors?

Businesses know exactly how much they make or save thanks to AI. Take your hourly wage and count how many hours you save, and you know what it's worth to you. People who use AI for real world tasks would probably mostly accept double or even triple.

Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#319
post #256

The fact that people here are looking at these numbers and saying "this is fine" is absolutely bonkers. Basically, it's a company that's not sustainable for two separate reasons. The first one is that they have an extremely high overhead. SG&A of 55% is really bad. The seconds reason is that their R&D costs are truly astronomical. They could probably cut those costs to some extent, but they're not going to cut them t…

These companies are clearly calling things that are R&D that aren't R&D. If you're building a model that lasts a few months before it's no longer the most current one, and maybe a year before it's completely unusable by anybody, then that should just be COGS. Doing that, however, would betray the real problem with this business model.

They are also likely overestimating the useful lifespan of the hardware. They keep extending the number of years on the GPUs to make the accounting look better.

Re: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B

#320
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d easily pay multiple hundreds. Possibly a thousand a month. If I were really forced to. LLMs provide me about the same value as a car does.

Paying a thousand a month for a car is also very stupid.

Is it smarter to totally cheap out and have an unreliable car that breaks down, stranding you, causing you to miss work though? If you're in a line of work that's customer facing, where having a beater of a car is going to hurt your job prospects? Without knowing the rest of the context, absolute statements based on absolute numbers is also dumb.

How many months is this car loan? What was the down payment? What's the interest rate? We haven't even asked what kind of car it is yet.

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