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DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

jeffgeerling.com

311–320 of 592 posts

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#312
post #240

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First time in your life? Were you born after COVID and the 24 months of dire component shortages that followed?

This one might last longer. The AI race is on, and the US tries its best to make it as expensive for China as possible to participate in it. Every dollar China spends on GPUs they get at markup is one not spent on building navy ships. If there is an escalation over Taiwan, then that will cause the loss of most of the world's high grade chip manufacturing capacity. TSMC is busy doing technology transfers into the US,…

Hypothetically what would happen if China took over Tawain and TSMC?

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#313
post #241

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The MacBook Neo’s education price of $499

It blows my mind that a Pi is a significant portion of the cost of it.

The Pi isnt a loss leader for user acquisition nor do they get to enjoy Apples economy of scale. Apple can take a small loss on this and it will still be worth it if they retain the users in their ecosystem.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#314
post #165

In the Dwarkesh podcast with Semi-Analysis's Dylan Patel they forecast the phone market will shrink by 50% this year because of RAM prices: But that’s the high end of the market, which is only a few hundred million phones a year. Apple sells two or three hundred million phones annually. The bulk of the market is mid-range and low-end. It used to be that 1.4 billion smartphones were sold a year. Now we’re at about 1.1…

This is an extinction event for the low-cost cell phone companies. How are they going to survive if they can't sell their $100 phones profitably for 2 years? I think many of the low-end companies will simply sell their allocations of RAM and close up shop.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#315

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> therefore there is zero incentive to even bother. I hear you, and this is a real problem. But it's kind of depressing to need incentives to care about the quality of your work.

There is something very wrong now with how companies operate in general. You get beaten down eventually. Late last year. I spent like an hour going through why a PR (and this developer's work) in general wasn't acceptable to my superior. He said to me that he was perfectly fine with someone not understanding basic language features (after 6 months using the langauge). He then merged it. It didn't work (as I had warne…

Dear god how do I get these jobs? I'm 35 yo and would work with you and accept your work, not jam crap code into things. I'm open minded and realize when someone's idea or code is better than mine.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#317

The extreme DRAM market has had an unexpected side effect of triggering a lot of panic buying. I know several people who delayed PC upgrades for years but then panic bought new systems in this market. The trigger was seeing all of the "It's only going to get worse" and "This is the end of personal computing" headlines. They're already regretting spending so much now that prices have started to tick downward. I keep t…

I panic bought a Macbook Pro M5 Max with 128 GB ram. I yolo'ed because I don't think ram prices get better in 18 months so this might be the last time we see "cheap" memory, even though the laptop cost me $5000.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#318

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My Samsung Galaxy S3 died after 8 years. EMMC failure. Just started boot looping while I was asleep. Everything gone. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S8 died at 7 years. Some kind of thermal failure, I was able to recover my data by keeping the phone in the freezer while I copied. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S21? I figure I've got another year or two in it before it, too, dies. Having beautiful dead phones that hav…

I bought a used Samsung and it started boot looping almost immediately, all these issues seem very specific to Samsung

The Seagate of cellphones

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#320
post #239

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I had an iPhone 12 and just upgraded to a 17 because I don't see any point waiting - prices will just increase. > It really sucks more because the reason for it--AI--is just so godawful and pointless. Strong disagree. AI is the best thing I've seen in 30 years working in software and expensive RAM for 2 years is a price I think is worth it.

> AI is the best thing I've seen in 30 years working in software and expensive RAM for 2 years is a price I think is worth it. I think generative AI is pretty neat, but I'm not sure it's worth the RAM increases. I use Claude like everyone else does, and it's cool, but I am a little concerned at how much absolute low-effort crap is being produced with it. It has made YouTube considerably worse; there was already a lot…

New Chinese vendors are scaling up, seeing the opportunity for large profits. Prediction: in 5 years half the market will be Chinese brands
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