Earlier quoted context omitted.
Listen to the podcast I linked. 2 years is ramp up time for new memory factories (which are currently being built)
I do not see any linked podcasts.
DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
301–310 of 592 posts
Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
Finally, good efficient code is going to get its moment to shine! Which will totally happen because it's not like 80% of the industry is vibe coding everything, right?
just do vibe performance optimization (I am not even kidding)
Yep I’ve seen multiple instances of this so far.
Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
#303It's good that openAI is failing to meet its obligations on hardware, but given what we know about the DRAM industry, i suspect drastically higher prices will be the permanent new normal, just like most everything else.
I've been having fun getting Linux 7.0 running on my Milk-V Duo S, it's still available super cheap (though tariffs make buying single quantities expensive) so i stocked up on Duo boards. I guess I'm hoping for an upside where there's more interest in cheaper overstock boards from 2022+
Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
#304Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, never understood why I would want an entire OS running just to blink an LED. I was going to make a pro-Arduino comment but I guess my LED example warrants little more than an R/C circuit and a transistor, ha ha. (Anyway, I still remember the thrill of writing assembly for a 68HC11 and getting a pair of hobby servos to respond.)
Familiarity - it’s easy for us Linux dweebs to build a pi that can flip an LED, but programming an arduino is an entire new area.
good news, now you can use all that dram you can't afford to vibe code an arduino program. Think of the savings and the learnings!
Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
#305Earlier quoted context omitted.
I listed some popular languages that web applications I happened to run dockerised are using. They are not arbitrary. If you run normal web applications they often take many hundreds of megabytes if they are built with some popular languages that I happened to list off the top of my head. That is a fact. Comparing that to cut down frameworks with many limitations meant for embedded devices isn't a valid comparison.
1GB is plenty for almost every case I've seen, 10-20x the need. Yes if you're running a repeated full OS underneath (hello VMs) then it'll waste more. I run (regular) .NET (8) in Unless you're talking about disk space.. runtimes take space.
> 1GB is plenty for almost every case I've seen, 10-20x the need
Couldn't have seen many then! Maybe you should look elsewhere.
> Yes if you're running a repeated full OS underneath (hello VMs) then it'll waste more.
Docker is not VMs. Other people have stated this.
> I run (regular) .NET (8) in Good for you. I run web services that are heavier. The container has nothing to do with it.
Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
#306Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's pretty trivial to do so on Arduino though. void setup() { pinMode(LED_BUILTIN, OUTPUT); } void loop() { digitalWrite(LED_BUILTIN, HIGH); delay(1000); digitalWrite(LED_BUILTIN, LOW); delay(1000); }
Well first you have to learn the Arduino programming language. And the stdlib.
it's literally the hello world of micros. get an arduino, plug it into the usb, install the ide, new -> example -> 01. Blink. Press Run. Cool you have now blunk a led. Now use AI to draw the rest of the owl.
Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
Smartphones are widely available on the used goods market though, perhaps even more so than second-hand SBCs or old PCs. The "low and mid range" can be filled by the former high end.
My Samsung Galaxy S3 died after 8 years. EMMC failure. Just started boot looping while I was asleep. Everything gone. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S8 died at 7 years. Some kind of thermal failure, I was able to recover my data by keeping the phone in the freezer while I copied. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S21? I figure I've got another year or two in it before it, too, dies. Having beautiful dead phones that hav…
I bought a used Samsung and it started boot looping almost immediately, all these issues seem very specific to Samsung
Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
#308The title should say: "Collusion of large corporations promoting LLMs with RAM manufacturers is killing the hobbyist SBC market (and bankrupting anybody trying to get a PC or laptop)". Because we all know that DRAM prices have spiked since production is going to those infernal chatbot training data centers. Same as a lot of the electricity in some parts of the world, BTW.
> Collusion of large corporations promoting LLMs > We all know that DRAM prices have spiked since production is going to those infernal chatbot training data centers I know it's very fashionable here to talk about capitalism as some hand-washes-hand big corp organized scam, but if you put that ideology aside for a moment, you contradicted yourself here, I think. I personally don't like conspiracy-theory-thinking. If…
There is a risk of having a single large customer. As a small food manufacturer we've been warned about it, like to not sell to Walmart even if given the chance.
If one customer buys a majority of your product, your entire business is at their mercy. They can dictate terms, or quit buying from you which can end your business.
So even with RAM - if a company goes all in on RAM for an AI company, what happens when the AI bubble bursts, or the AI company spins up/buys their own RAM factory and quits buying? Did you make enough money to tide you over until you can regain your old customers that have gotten used to not being your customer?
Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
#309[flagged]
Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market
#310In the Dwarkesh podcast with Semi-Analysis's Dylan Patel they forecast the phone market will shrink by 50% this year because of RAM prices: But that’s the high end of the market, which is only a few hundred million phones a year. Apple sells two or three hundred million phones annually. The bulk of the market is mid-range and low-end. It used to be that 1.4 billion smartphones were sold a year. Now we’re at about 1.1…
Smartphones are widely available on the used goods market though, perhaps even more so than second-hand SBCs or old PCs. The "low and mid range" can be filled by the former high end.
If you're not a phone power user, you can get by on old low end stuff. When my pixel 4a died of a bad screen crack a couple years ago, I replaced it with a random used 4a on ebay for $80. Two years later and it's still completely fine for all my purposes (texting, phone calls, chrome browsing, tolerable camera, etc.), although I still haven't accepted google's deal for a free battery swap yet from sheer laziness. I've learned that I can accept a 90 minute screen-on phone battery, though it's an odd adjustment to make. Again, not a power user.