301–310 of 426 posts
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load bearing has snuck into my vocabulary, but I work with construction workers so it's slightly more intuitive I guess? :/
I definitely heard it semi-frequently from SRE types well before the rise of LLMs. LLMs are just parroting relevant documents they've assimilated.
Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.
This is wrong because local models are very expensive, just as expensive as the frontier. It would cost me $300 in normal deepseek v4 pricing (non discounted) PER DAY, but I get it all for $500 worth of subscriptions.
Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.
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Are they? I don't believe there's that big of a market for local AI. Most people don't care that much, and you'll most likely lose the advertising revenue.
>I don't believe there's that big of a market for local AI. Most people don't care that much, I agree that the market for local AI is basically limited to nerds at this point, but that's because nobody's really explained why local AI is a good thing and also because the vast majority of people need the $20 paid plan at most. How much time and money would it take to get something half as good as OpenAIs products runni…
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No, it's economies of scale and I don't understand where anyone is coming from that thinks they'll be better off buying their own hardware, why would you get a better deal on MATMULs/watt than the cloud providers ?
Within 5-10 years you're going to see a box like one of those AMD Halo nodes running homes. They'll be controlling lights and temperature, they'll be adding calendar reminders that show up on your phone and your fridge. Your phone and devices might sync pictures and videos there instead of the large cloud providers. They'll also be a media server, able to stream and multiplex whatever content you want through the hom…
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The current LLM hype started, what, 5 years ago? It's an industry throwing billions of dollars (and teasing at the word trillions) around. It's had super bowl ads. It's a technology that's being mandated in corporate offices. It's basically the only thing the tech world ever talks about anymore. It's sucked all the air out of the room and occupies the whole stage. Just how "early stage" is that, and how much more int…
> Just how "early stage" is that, and how much more integration does this "new technology" need to be? Based on the way Claude has felt the last few weeks, I'd say we're about 3-6 months away from full AGI. At that point we can start truly replacing white collar workers in earnest and begin deep integration.
> At that point we can start truly replacing white collar workers in earnest and begin deep integration.
This is why AI is so deeply unpopular. Even in the "good" scenario proselytized by true believers, you still paint a bleak near-future where everyone loses their jobs.
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> Open source models are 3-6 months behind.
On the benchmarks included in their training set yes, not in real life
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It's just like saying every dependency is a ticking bomb. In a very strict sense, it's true. But it really doesn't matter for most businesses (and absolutely doesn't matter for early stage startups.)
Brad Gerstner confirmed that tokens aren't being sold at a loss. Whatever the formula, API + Subscription split, the companies are making a profit on net token sale. They maybe running at loss after all the salaries and stock comp, but tokens are in profit now.
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> within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden Based on what? The RAM requirements alone are extraordinary. No, running large models on shared, dedicated hosted hardware at full utilization is going to be vastly more cost-efficient for the foreseeable future.
Local modals are 6 months to 18 months behind frontier. Even if the performance of a cloud model is faster, it's clear that local is catching up.
At what tps? You can run the new gemini flash or 5.3 codex spark at 1000+tps and run circles "open" models. You can't run anything useable locally without at the very least a blackwell 6000 if not two
Sure you can run qwen 3.6 at 20tps on a mac 128gb but let's not pretend this will get you anywhere