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AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

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Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#111

Post by wolttam »

evo_9 wrote: post #79

Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.

There's still going to be plenty of use-case and demand for frontier models running across hundreds or thousands of GPUs. It's just not going to be in the current shape - certainly not accessed by the general public for rote business tasks.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#112

Post by vb-8448 »

evo_9 wrote: post #79

Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.

> within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier

Unless there isn't some important breakthrough in hw production or in models architecture, it's quite the opposite: bigger, more expensive and more energy-intensive hw is needed today compared to 1 or 2 years ago.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#113

Post by YesBox »

evo_9 wrote: post #79

Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.

You'd have a point if Cloud ^tm didnt take off into a multi billion dollar industry.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#114

Post by Bnjoroge »

rvcdbn wrote: post #26

Article is mistaken these subs are not available to businesses. Companies are paying much closer to API prices. The strategy is to get you accustomed to infinite tokens on your personal sub and bet that behavior transfers to work.

Subs are absolutely available to businesses. There’s metered plans for ghe equivalent consumer plan.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#115

Post by alsetmusic »

crazygringo wrote: post #108
evo_9 wrote: post #79

Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.

> within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden Based on what? The RAM requirements alone are extraordinary. No, running large models on shared, dedicated hosted hardware at full utilization is going to be vastly more cost-efficient for the foreseeable future.

Local modals are 6 months to 18 months behind frontier. Even if the performance of a cloud model is faster, it's clear that local is catching up.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#116

Post by vb-8448 »

ml_basics wrote: post #66
ainch wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tokens can be sold at profit, but 70% of compute expenditure goes to R&D and model training[0]. Inference needs to cover all of that as well as being profitable in a vacuum. [0] https://epoch.ai/data-insights/openai-compute-spend

this will change as inference demand increases (which is happening right now faster than many people expected)

do you have some ref?

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#117

Post by Ekaros »

carra wrote: post #98

Not just AI. Every subscription in general can be a time bomb. You grow more dependent on it, and the provider can disappear or take it away at any moment.

I would expand this to any dumped product or service. Whenever the real cost isn't paid now it will sometime in future or will collapse. Just look at how extractive food delivery and taxis are. Start with dumping. Then be last one to survive and fleece all the sides you can.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#118

Post by greesil »

alsetmusic wrote: post #115
crazygringo wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden Based on what? The RAM requirements alone are extraordinary. No, running large models on shared, dedicated hosted hardware at full utilization is going to be vastly more cost-efficient for the foreseeable future.

Local modals are 6 months to 18 months behind frontier. Even if the performance of a cloud model is faster, it's clear that local is catching up.

How do you know this? I'm not trying to attack your statement, I am genuinely curious how anyone knows anything about model performance outside of benchmarks that are already in the training set.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#119

Post by calvinmorrison »

alsetmusic wrote: post #115
crazygringo wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden Based on what? The RAM requirements alone are extraordinary. No, running large models on shared, dedicated hosted hardware at full utilization is going to be vastly more cost-efficient for the foreseeable future.

Local modals are 6 months to 18 months behind frontier. Even if the performance of a cloud model is faster, it's clear that local is catching up.

if that's true - and in 6 or 12 months i can get what i have today, it might not be worth paying anthropic.
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