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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#301

Post by tjr »

XenophileJKO wrote: post #213
whoknowsidont wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not. And if your team is doing this you're not "advanced." Lots of people are outing themselves these days about the complexity of their jobs, or lack thereof. Which is great! But it's not a +1 for AI, it's a -1 for them.

I beginning to think most "advanced" programmers are just poor communicators. It really comes mostly down to being able to concisely and eloquently define what you want done. It also is important to understand what the default tendencies and biases of the model are so you know where to lean in a little. Occasionally you need to provide reference material. The capabilities have grown dramatically in the last 6 months.…

Some of the best programmers I know are very good at writing and/or speaking and teaching. I struggle to believe that “advanced programmers” are poor communicators.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#303

Post by satvikpendem »

moomoo11 wrote: post #284

Man some you guys are lame. Seriously. Remember 2019-2021 when y’all were sure the fed would be dissolved and the dollar would crash and everyone would be poor if they didn’t have a bored ape and 80% bitcoin portfolio? Relax. AI is a tool. Just ride the wave. It’s gonna crash some people out. It’s entertaining watching them. You’re not being crashed out, right? Ride the wave dawg.

> Remember 2019-2021 when y’all were sure the fed would be dissolved and the dollar would crash and everyone would be poor if they didn’t have a bored ape and 80% bitcoin portfolio?

I don't know which "y'all" you're talking about because it's certainly not the HN crowd, who is famously anti-cryptocurrency in general. Perhaps you're thinking of the bros on Twitter back then.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#304

Post by johnfn »

irishcoffee wrote: post #298
johnfn wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are seeing is the difference between what I personally feel and what I could objectively prove to an AI skeptic. If I have to "prove" my productivity in a court of law - that is to say, you - I'll down-modulate it to focus on the bits that are most objective, because I understand you will be skeptical. For instance, I really do think I'm 10x faster with Terraform, because I don't need to read all the documen…

> For instance, I really do think I'm 10x faster with Terraform, because I don't need to read all the documentation, and that would have taken absurd amounts of time. I think this is where the lede is buried. Yes, it takes time up front. But then you learn(ed) it and can apply those skills quickly in the future. In 10 years when all sorts of new tech is around, will you read the docs? Or just count on an LLM?

I mean, in my comment I did say that an AI skeptic probably wouldn't buy that argument. So I'm not too surprised that you're not buying it.

That being said, I have taught myself a ridiculous amount of tech with AI. It's not always great at depth, but it sure is amazing at breadth. And I can still turn to docs for depth when I need to.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#305

Post by [deleted] »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #221
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

I completely agree. This guy is way outside his area of expertise. For those unaware, Howard Marks is a legendary investment manager with a decades-long impressive track record. Additionally, these "insights" letters are also legendary in the money management business. Personally, I would say his wisdom is one notch below Warren Buffett. I am sure he is regularly asked (badgered?) by investors what he thinks about th…

[deleted]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#306

Post by XenophileJKO »

interstice wrote: post #276
XenophileJKO wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I beginning to think most "advanced" programmers are just poor communicators. It really comes mostly down to being able to concisely and eloquently define what you want done. It also is important to understand what the default tendencies and biases of the model are so you know where to lean in a little. Occasionally you need to provide reference material. The capabilities have grown dramatically in the last 6 months.…

> I beginning to think most "advanced" programmers are just poor communicators. This is a interesting take take considering that programmers are experts in communicating what someone has asked for (however vaguely) into code. I think you're referring to is the transition from 'write code that does X' which is very concrete to 'trick an AI into writing the code I would have written, only faster', which feels like work…

When you oversee a team technically as a tech lead or an architect, you need communication skills.

1. Basing on how the engineer just responded to my comment, what is the understanding gap?

2. How do I describe what I want in a concise and intuitive way?

3. How do I tell an engineer what is important in this system and what are the constraints?

4. What assumptions will an engineer likely make that are will cause me to have to make a lot of corrections?

Etc.. this is all human to human.

These skills are all transferrable to working with an LLM.

So I guess if you are not used to technical leadership, you may not have used those skills as much.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#307

Post by rgbrgb »

rasz wrote: post #251
giancarlostoro wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has the net benefit that it points out things that are actually wrong and overlooked.

But also points out tons of your deliberate design choices as bugs, and will recommend removing things it doesnt understand.

just like any junior dev

Re: Is it a bubble?

#308

Post by bigstrat2003 »

simianwords wrote: post #262
Sprotch wrote: post #34

He thinks "AI" "may be capable of taking over cognition", which shows he doesn't understand how LLM work...

Why are you so sure it is not capable of cognition?

Because it very obviously isn't. For example (though this is a year or so ago), look at when people hooked Claude up to Pokemon. It got stuck on things that no human, even a small child, would get stuck on (such as going in and out of a building over and over). I'm sure we could train an LLM to play Pokemon, but you don't need to train a child to play. You hand them the game and they figure it out with no prior experience. That is because the human is intelligent, and the LLM is not.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#309

Post by XenophileJKO »

tjr wrote: post #301
XenophileJKO wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I beginning to think most "advanced" programmers are just poor communicators. It really comes mostly down to being able to concisely and eloquently define what you want done. It also is important to understand what the default tendencies and biases of the model are so you know where to lean in a little. Occasionally you need to provide reference material. The capabilities have grown dramatically in the last 6 months.…

Some of the best programmers I know are very good at writing and/or speaking and teaching. I struggle to believe that “advanced programmers” are poor communicators.

Genuine reflection question, are these excellent communicators good at using llms to write code?

My supposition was: Many programmers that say their programming domain was too advanced and llms didn't work for their kind of code are simply bad at describing concisely what is required.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#310

Post by bigstrat2003 »

sosborn wrote: post #14
jbstack wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, a bubble just means that it's over-valued and that at some point there will be a significant correction in stock values. It doesn't mean that the thing is inherently worthless.

A great example is the DotCom bubble. Wiped out a lot of capital but it really did transform the world.

Yeah, but unlike LLMs the Internet was an actual useful technology.
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