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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

211–220 of 605 posts

Re: Is it a bubble?

#211

Why is so much invested in AI but not in fusion power?

Bad comparison.

Investment in fusion is huge and rising. ITER's total cost alone will be around $20b. And then there's Commonwealth Fusion, Helion, TAE and about a dozen others. Tens of billions are going into those efforts too.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#212
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been blowing my mind reading HN the past year or so and seeing so many comments from programmers that are excited to not have to write code. It's depressing.

I suspect, rather strongly, that what really specifically wears programmers down is boilerplate . AI is addressing that problem extremely well, but by putting up with it rather than actually solving it. I don't want the boilerplate to be necessary in the first place.

[deleted]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#213

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

It's not. And if your team is doing this you're not "advanced." Lots of people are outing themselves these days about the complexity of their jobs, or lack thereof. Which is great! But it's not a +1 for AI, it's a -1 for them.

I beginning to think most "advanced" programmers are just poor communicators.

It really comes mostly down to being able to concisely and eloquently define what you want done. It also is important to understand what the default tendencies and biases of the model are so you know where to lean in a little. Occasionally you need to provide reference material.

The capabilities have grown dramatically in the last 6 months.

I have an advantage because I have been building LLM powered products so I know mechanically what they are and are not good with. For example.. want it to wire up an API with 250+ endpoints with a harness? You better create (or have it create) a way to cluster and audit coverage.

Generally the failures I hear often with "advanced" programmers are things like algorithmic complexity, concurrency, etc.. and these models can do this stuff given the right motivation/context. You just need to understand what "assumptions" the model it making and know when you need to be explicit.

Actually one thing most people don't understand is they try to say "Do (A), Don't do (B)", etc. Defining granular behavior which is fundamentally a brittle way to interact with the models.

Far more effective is defining the persona and motivation for the agent. This creates the baseline behavior profile for the model in that context.

Not "don't make race conditions", more like "You value and appreciate elegant concurrent code."

Re: Is it a bubble?

#214
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This and the fact that the end result is so poor isn't really selling your argument very well If you ever find yourself at the point where you are insulting a guy's passion project in order to prove a point, perhaps have a deep breath, and take a step back from the computer for a moment. And maybe you should look deep inside yourself, because you might have crossed the threshold to being a jerk. Yes, my site has is…

Look, buddy. You propped yourself up as an Experienced Dev doing cool stuff at Profitable Startup and don't understand Advanced Programming, and your entire argument is that you can keep doing the same sort of high quality(FSOV) work you've been doing the past 10 years with AI, just a lot faster. I'm just calling spade a spade. If you didn't want people to comment on your side project given your arguments and the top…

If I were to summarize the intent of my comments in a single sentence, it would be something like "I have been an engineer for a while, and I have been able to do fun stuff with AI quickly." You somehow managed to respond to that by disparaging me as an engineer ("Experienced Dev") and saying the fun stuff I did is low quality ("should have [...] done better work"). It's so far away from the point I was making, and so wildly negative - when, again, my only intent was to say that I was doing fun AI stuff - that I can't imagine where it originated from. The fact that it's about a passion project is really the cherry on top. Do you tell your kids that their artwork is awful as well?

I can understand to some degree it would be chafing that I described myself as working at a SF Series C startup etc. The only intent there was to illustrate that I wasn't someone who started coding 2 weeks ago and had my mind blown by typing "GPT build me a calculator" into Claude. No intent at all of calling myself a mega-genius, which I don't really think I am. Just someone who likes doing fun stuff with AI.

And, BTW, if you reread my initial comment, you will realize you misread part of it. I said that "Advanced Programming" is the exact opposite of the type of work I am doing.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#215
post #146
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been blowing my mind reading HN the past year or so and seeing so many comments from programmers that are excited to not have to write code. It's depressing.

There are three takes that I think are not depressing: * Being excited to be able to write the pieces of code they want, and not others. When you sit down to write code, you do not do everything from scratch, you lean on libraries, compilers, etc. Take the most annoying boilerplate bit of code you have to write now - would you be happy if a new language/framework popped up that eliminated it? * Being excited to be ab…

Those are all good outcomes, up to a point. But if this stuff works TOO well, most or maybe all of us will have to start looking at other career options. Whatever autonomy you think you have in deciding what the AI does, that can ultimately be trained as well, and it will be the more people use it.

I personally don't like it when others who don't know how to code are able to get results using AI. I spent many years of my life and a small fortune learning scarce skills that everyone swore would be the last to ever be automated. Now, in a cruel twist of fate, those skills are being automated and there is seemingly no worthwhile job that can't be automated given enough investment. I am hopeful because the AI still has a long way to go, but even with the improvements it currently has, it might ultimately destroy the tech industry. I'm hoping that Say's Law proves true in this case, but even before the AI I was skeptical that we would find work for all the people trying to get into the software industry.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#216
I bought a subscription to claude code to use at work. I’ve never paid for a tool to use at work that wasn’t paid by my employer. I have to admit, it may not just be a flash in the pan.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not. And if your team is doing this you're not "advanced." Lots of people are outing themselves these days about the complexity of their jobs, or lack thereof. Which is great! But it's not a +1 for AI, it's a -1 for them.

I beginning to think most "advanced" programmers are just poor communicators. It really comes mostly down to being able to concisely and eloquently define what you want done. It also is important to understand what the default tendencies and biases of the model are so you know where to lean in a little. Occasionally you need to provide reference material. The capabilities have grown dramatically in the last 6 months.…

One added note. This rigidness of instruction is a real problem that the models themselves will magnify and you need to be aware of. For example if you ask a Claude family of models to write a sub-agent for you in Claude Code. 99% of the time it will define a rigid process with steps and conditions instead of creating a persona with motivations (and if you need it suggested courses of action).

Re: Is it a bubble?

#218
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I save an incredible amount of time. I suspect I’m likely 5-10x more productive, though it depends exactly what I’m working on. Most of the issues that you cite can be solved, though it requires you to rewire the programming part of your brain to work with this new paradigm. To be honest, I don’t really have a problem with chunking my tasks. The reason I don’t is because I don’t really think about it that way. I…

Is your redesign live for chipscompo? Because if so, and absolutely no offence meant here, the UI looks like it was built by an intern. And fair enough, you sound like a backend guy so you can't expect perfection for frontend work. My experience with AI is that it's great at producing intern-level artifacts very quickly and that has its uses, but that certainly doesn't replace 95% of software development. And if it's…

Yes, it is live. I never claimed to be a god-level designer - but you should have seen what it looked like before. :)

Re: Is it a bubble?

#219

The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…

What I don't understand is, will every company really want to be beholden to some AI provider? If they get rid of the workers, all of a sudden they are on the losing end of the bargaining table. They have incredible leverage as things stand.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#220

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

At $WORK, we have a bot that integrates with Slack that sets up minor PRs. Adjusting tf, updating endpoints, adding simple handlers. It does pretty well. Also in a case of just prose to code, Claude wrote up a concurrent data migration utility in Go. When I reviewed it, it wasn't managing goroutines or waitgroups well, and the whole thing was a buggy mess and could not be gracefully killed. I would have written it fa…

It took me a while to realize you were using "$WORK" as a shell variable, not as a reference to Slack's stock ticker prior to its acquisition by $CRM.
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