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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

301–310 of 812 posts

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#301

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

> I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. hows that going? economists have been giving advice to policymakers for decades, and we have a widening gap between the haves and the have nots, society increasingly in debt, etc. Maybe economists have it wrong.

The gap between haves and have nots is more related to politics than economics IMO. It's about how the value is (re)distributed.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#302
A rather medieval way of thinking about gold - it is only scarce on Earth. The year is 2025, and asteroid mining is on the horizon, so gold supply could increase dramatically. Tying the dollar to something that may soon become abundant doesn’t seem like a brilliant idea.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has been done before, and America comes out consistently on top. Even the median purchasing power parity (PPP) in the US is frequently ranked highest in the world. The majority of American households in the poorest US states are doing better than the majority of Europeans. This gets amplified if you're a highly sought after professional. Top senior engineers are getting paid $500k-$1M in the US. These are figure…

Have you lived in Denmark, Japan, China, Netherlands and some other countries in the past 10-15 years? I really don’t think you weigh in people’s personal preferences and general quality of life into your equations. There is a very big reason why there’s no more large swaths of immigrants from European and some Asian countries flocking into the US. Yes there is some, but the times when it was objectively much better…

>There is a very big reason why there’s no more large swaths of immigrants from European and some Asian countries flocking into the US.

Yeas, and this reason - US visa is one of the hardest to get.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#304

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

> I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. hows that going? economists have been giving advice to policymakers for decades, and we have a widening gap between the haves and the have nots, society increasingly in debt, etc. Maybe economists have it wrong.

[deleted]

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#305
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only a debate if you reject the very principals of science. I realize we're getting there for a lot of people, but merely disbelieving in science is not a refutal of it. This ignores so called Austrian economists however, who are just flat out lying to either themselves or everyone else depending on the person.

I think the problem might be that it's difficult to perform experiments in economics due to the size of the thing being measured and the fact that the people making up the economy generally aren't going to be alright with you performing experiments on them.

I would like to note that there are many other fields in science which have even more trouble performing experiments, but nobody says that e.g. astrophysics or astronomy is not a science.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#306
post #73
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

seemed like a good article until he went into "back the dollar on gold" and revealed he was a total crackpot, sad

Care to elaborate? It’s thought provoking as a mechanism to reduce all of this zero sum (or even worse, parasitic) effort that dominates our system.

Making money with money (a.k.a. finance) existed long before fiat currency, you can't get rid of it by going to the gold standard. It would be much more effective to ban speculation in investment markets (calls and puts).

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#307
I thought this was an interesting post with some outlandish statements, but I was willing to grapple with them because I thought the author was cooking up something new...

Then I realized this was a post from geohot and felt very foolish the 15 minutes I spent thinking through his argument. Why is this so upvoted!

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. hows that going? economists have been giving advice to policymakers for decades, and we have a widening gap between the haves and the have nots, society increasingly in debt, etc. Maybe economists have it wrong.

The gap between haves and have nots is more related to politics than economics IMO. It's about how the value is (re)distributed.

Specifically, krugman believes that inflation is required to confuse laborers to stay in their jobs and not take pay cuts (sorry, can't find ref), which creates labor stability.

so yes, it is about economists. interest rate policy is crafted around this principle and designed to screw the have nots (it is not only krugman, it is encoded in the fed's dual mandate). since every country has a central bank with a similar mandate its hard to know if gettimg screwed is inherent in captalism or if it's only a feature of central bank capitalism.

It's maybe telling that the nordic central banks have the lowest interest rates in general

> The gap between haves and have nots is more related to politics than economics IMO

in human history there have been few societies that haven't had a widening gap; gaps typically have contracted during times of revolution. no social democracy in the current epoch doesn't feature a widening gap, so i would doubt that active redistribution helps all that much (inflation is a compounding effect that overtakes all redistribution)

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#309
post #72
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Brain-draining the world is really the key to cementing American Hegemony in a post-Cold War world. Why should we want that instead of an orderly, well-governed democracy? Do you think people in Sweden or Denmark are upset their countries aren't hegemons? And what would that do to the country? Do you really think that, say, the top 5% of India and China (100 million people) would do better maintaining a democracy t…

India despite flaws is a democracy same as the US. It's a very different country then China. Plenty of immigrants from tyrannical countries are as if not more committed to democracy as those born here And just because someone was born in China or India it doesn't make them any less American then someone born in Iowa. Their children might be born in Iowa

How does one commit themselves to democracy?

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gap between haves and have nots is more related to politics than economics IMO. It's about how the value is (re)distributed.

Specifically, krugman believes that inflation is required to confuse laborers to stay in their jobs and not take pay cuts (sorry, can't find ref), which creates labor stability. so yes, it is about economists. interest rate policy is crafted around this principle and designed to screw the have nots (it is not only krugman, it is encoded in the fed's dual mandate). since every country has a central bank with a similar…

Citation:

https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/0...

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