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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#301

Post by greatpatton »

ericd wrote: post #216
pojzon wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When ppl talk about EVs overtaking petrol all I can do is shake head. Infrastructure is not there and is not going to be there for EVs for a long time. Its not only gas stations but also power plants, transit cables, personel, supply chains, technology, laws and other. If we make good investments it will take around 50 years in some developed EU countries to reach appropriate infrastructure levels. In less developed…

Oh, not this again. If you have a standard household outlet accessible where you park, you probably don’t need charging stations outside of road trips, because you’ll be getting 60+ miles of charge overnight. The load at a given time is like a third that of a central air conditioner. I think we can handle it.

Moving all private cars to electricity will increase total electricity consumption by 19% (https://phys.org/news/2015-07-cars-electric.html). This number is not something worrying in any way, and well manageable by the current incremental improvement of the electricity grid.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#303

Post by fleddr »

HelloMcFly wrote: post #192
lettergram wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The inflation on food due to high fuel and fertilizer prices won’t really kick in until October -> February during harvest. Next year food will be far higher, largely due to - people skipping fertilizer a second year in a row - the feed price increases from year prior will impact next years meat - much of the cow herds have been reduced due to hay prices skyrocketing (but beef rates staying far lower, due to sell off…

I'm not trying to be glib or intentionally controversial, but: is this a "market correction" for beef not really being as sustainable at recent consumption levels? Is it a bad thing if beef becomes significantly more expensive?

My father has worked in the meat industry his entire life and said that over the decades, he was shocked how unnaturally cheap meat has become.

I'm in no way anti-meat, but a lot of people have normalized eating a huge amount of meat per day at ultra low cost, and internalized this as some basic right. Natural consumption of meat is to eat meat sporadically, not 3 times per day.

I'm not questioning whether one likes meat, I do too. I'm saying you don't need it in these amounts nor should you expect it to be this cheap forever.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#304

Post by pojzon »

scythe wrote: post #272
pojzon wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When ppl talk about EVs overtaking petrol all I can do is shake head. Infrastructure is not there and is not going to be there for EVs for a long time. Its not only gas stations but also power plants, transit cables, personel, supply chains, technology, laws and other. If we make good investments it will take around 50 years in some developed EU countries to reach appropriate infrastructure levels. In less developed…

>it will take around 50 years That would be twice as long as it took the US to electrify 90% of farm houses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rural_Electrification_Act > Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn was a major proponent of the REA, which he helped pass in 1936 as Chairman of the House Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee. Rayburn stated in 1959 that ninety percent of farm homes in the U.S. were electrified, co…

How energy production looked like in 1930s vs now.

How many charging points do we need now vs # those farms ?

What was the quality of cable lanes used ?

Did we consider off-grid then ?

Whats the estimated cost in comparison to now ?

You make it sound simple, but its not. Making that comparison is like comparing apples to oranges.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#305

Post by jonnycomputer »

upupandup wrote: post #204
fuoqi wrote: post #172

How easy this value can be verified? In other words, do we have all inputs public and the algorithm (with all its "hedonistic adjustments") is fully accessible? Can we track changes in the algorithm? Even with the effect of high base, I am getting increasingly suspicious of official numbers (same with the unemployment statistics). Energy costs have skyrocketed and they get into almost everything an economy produces.…

The number the authorities give out is far removed from reality. Just head over to the grocery store. Try buying electronics. Inflation is still raging and I'm afraid they are just going to tell people suck it up. There is absolutely NO WAY inflation suddenly drops like this

Don't be ridiculous.

The Fed has aggressively raised interest rates and signals that it will continue to do so, and there is widespread worry about a recession. We've had two quarters of negative GDP growth! (though I tend to think the numbers will revised upward eventually).

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#306

Post by jhallenworld »

roflyear wrote: post #58
jhallenworld wrote: post #26

https://www.mass.gov/info-details/massachusetts-home-heating... Heating oil (diesel) is still 70% higher than last year. I'm about to delete the oil heat, so have been watching this.. I will certainly be annoyed if it crashes back to the $2s next week (right after the conversion..) https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010ma3m.htm https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APUS11A72610 BTW, this site allows you to compare the d…

Oil heat can be tough, but the prices will go down. I would not change things just as a reaction to these prices...

There are other reasons: the boiler is from the 1940s (59% efficiency) and the oil tank is at least 30 years old.

It's not pretty if the oil tank leaks...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djpH8pUSpjM

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#307

Post by jpadkins »

donatj wrote: post #146

What are the actual metrics they use to measure inflation? My electric bill is 33% higher than previous years, my gas bill is similar. City/Water/Sewer doubled. Trips to the grocery store are up close to 20%, and gasoline doubled. Everything you actually purchase day-to-day is up far more than the inflation benchmarks, so much so it’s beginning to feel like propaganda. I overnight went from thinking “I make good mone…

The 1980 and prior CPI calculation is still calculated here: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

As inflation was measured in the 1970's, we are experiencing ~15% consumer inflation.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#308

Post by vegardx »

lettergram wrote: post #290
randomdata wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corn seems to be a good leading indicator here[1]. Cash bids were $4 in 2019, $5 in 2020, $6 in 2021, $7 at the start of 2022, $9 when the war in Ukraine broke out, down to $8 in June, and now at $7.50 where it has remained stable at since the beginning of July. Which suggests that things are indeed slowing. [1] Which likely ends up being a proxy for oil, but as a farmer I watch food commodities much more closely.

The issue has to do with the harvest coming up. The next harvest will come from fields with less fertilizer and higher fuel prices. We can expect corn prices in the fall jumping significantly. Next year will even be worse, we are using a fuel reserves now and fertilizer will still be an issue (unless peace is made with Russia). I’m expecting a significant increase in the next 2-3 months then again in 15-16 months.

No post body was provided.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#309

Post by kranke155 »

xedrac wrote: post #212
lettergram wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The inflation on food due to high fuel and fertilizer prices won’t really kick in until October -> February during harvest. Next year food will be far higher, largely due to - people skipping fertilizer a second year in a row - the feed price increases from year prior will impact next years meat - much of the cow herds have been reduced due to hay prices skyrocketing (but beef rates staying far lower, due to sell off…

> if Ukraine doesn’t surrender I think you mean if Russia doesn't surrender. If Ukraine was to surrender, we'd have bigger problems than an increase in beef costs. I don't see any universe where Russia wins this war.

You should read reports by actual experts instead of media.

The RUSI - Royal United Services Institute - is a leading UK military institute that had boots on the ground assessing the situation. Here is their assessment. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-r...

"At present, however, several Russian advantages and Ukrainian weaknesses are leading to an attritional conflict that risks a protracted war, eventually favouring Russia."

And here's the companion podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a-turning-point-in-ukr...

It will tell you a lot of things, including that Ukraine's losses are far higher than the general public estimates, as Ukraine successfully hid/minimized the awareness of its losses from phase 1 of the war.

I also recommend the War on the Rocks podcast with Michael Kofman, whose assessment of the situation is also not too rosy.

I am extremely pro ukraine. But that's the reality. At the moment Russia is winning and Ukraine is losing, just very slowly.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#310

Post by ericd »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #284
ericd wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, not this again. If you have a standard household outlet accessible where you park, you probably don’t need charging stations outside of road trips, because you’ll be getting 60+ miles of charge overnight. The load at a given time is like a third that of a central air conditioner. I think we can handle it.

And for those of us in apartments / condos? My HOA were all born in the 40s and think EVs are simply a fad that doesn't need supporting.

Yep, it’s not going to work for everyone immediately. But it will for the majority, and over time, it will for everyone. As they become more common, the culture will shift and make this resistance seem more and more obviously ridiculous.
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