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Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

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Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#301
post #171
post #2

Investing in local chip fabs is long overdue. These are incredibly important for geopolitical stability and should be distributed world-wide. We've centralized too many fabs in too few places in the search for low cost.

It is very important for national stability. A highly-interconnected global economy is arguably better at securing international stability.

I used to believe that but have started to serious doubt it. Some counter-arguments:

1. It's reasoning a'la "It's economically inefficient therefore it's less likely to happen". In my opinions, governments are absolute experts in implementing economically nonsensical policies, international conflicts included.

2. Any link between nations can be weaponized, i.e. imposing tariffs, banning imports/exports, and so on. The greater your dependency on me the more ways I have to harm you.

3. Such weaponization will naturally harm your own citizens but you, as a decision maker, will bear very little cost.

4. The easier it is for me to replace you with an alternative the more likely I am to use that against you -- this is classic BATNA. You don't like my export quota? So what, I've got more interest than I can handle and you can build your batteries without lithium if you don't like that.

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#302
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are dependent on and subservient to the US and its geopolitical interests. We see this right now with Germany self-sabotaging it's own economy and industrial power by cutting off cheap Russian energy at the direction of US policy interests (Nord Stream 2 was agreed upon for years between Russia and Germany but thwarted at every turn, sanctioned etc by US).

Ah yes, the US interest of not funding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Heaven forbid any Europeans have any interest themselves in not helping a warmonger. Obviously they can only do this at the behesr of Uncle Sam.

It is only my claim that their interests are not completely aligned. US is much more energy independent and gepolitically secure across the ocean from whatever happens on the "world-island" [0].

Whereas Europe might directly suffer from instability and chaos, as well as loss of Russian energy supplies, the US would not and in relative terms becomes stronger if Europe is severed from Russian energy, and the continent is in conflict and chaos.

Europe having tight relations with Russia, economically especially energy-wise, is greatly beneficial to Europe and detrimental to US hegemony.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_Hist...

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#304
post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A connected world is not a guaranteed sufficient condition for peace. But that does not mean it's not a necessary condition for peace. One could argue that without economic interconnectivity, Europe could have fought WW1 much earlier, or would have had wars much more often.

While I ultimately believe you're correct (along with open borders and travel) I wish there were more rigorous proofs that this were the case. I think about the line in West Wing: "Free trade is essential for human rights...the end of that sentence is 'we hope because nothing else has worked.' ...Chinese political prisoners are going to be sewing soccer balls with their teeth whether we sell them cheeseburgers or not…

Human rights is more than just political rights or speech. Hundreds of millions of Chinese lifted out of poverty is a huge win for human rights. When you're poor, you're not free. Having grown up with dirty streets and beggars, you can't possibly imagine how big a deal it is for me to see my hometown transforming into a modern metropolis, and how my grandparents-in-law (in a different city, in a rural area) finaly have... Wait for it... A fscking toilet instead of a hole in the ground, as well as free health insurance. To me and millions of Chinese, these matters much more than being able to vote for the president.

A recent study by the Democracy Perception Index shows that Chinese feel that their country is democratic. But this is ludicrous, how can this be? It's because Chinese define democracy by whether they believe their government works for their interest and whether they yield good results, not by how their government is elected. It's not just propaganda; this result is consistent with earlier studies by Harvard and York University, as well as by my own experience on the ground.

https://latana.com/democracy-perception-index/

The concept of 民主 is much more in line with the 19th century definition of democracy, when the concept was brought to China. It was only in the latter half of the 20th century that (in the west) democracy became synonymous with electorialism.

So, not commenting on any other countries. But in case of China, Chinese view democracy and human rights differently. I think we should let them.

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#305
post #270
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is very important for national stability. A highly-interconnected global economy is arguably better at securing international stability.

That was the main argument for global trade already in 1914. France was Germany's most important commercial partner, and vice-versa. All German rifles had stocks made from French walnut wood! All French locomotives had German-made tubing! This stupid mantra was repeated ad nauseam after 1991, too, with silly op-eds from Friedman and friends about how two countries with McDonald joints in both can't be at war and simi…

You can and should have both. It's a form of defense at depth.

The theory of comparative advantage (David Ricardo) means it's worth specializing. But the counter argument (local resiliency) is also important -- but it may mean less efficiency in the short run, as a kind of investment against risk.

All that is fine, but it opens up the opportunity for short-sighted decisions (basically a mercantilist view that exports = good and imports = bad) like tariffs to protect local mfrs (which removes incentives for them to be efficient).

In short, like everything in life, there's not a sharp decision.

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#306
post #162
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's about national security. A fab is necessary for national security

> It's about national security. A fab is necessary for national security How does germany funding a foreign/non-german company's fab part of national security? What about expelling a foreign occupying force? If the germans cared about national security, shouldn't they be looking in that first? If germany was funding a german company's fab, it would be national security. What germany is doing is paying tribute to a do…

> What about expelling a foreign occupying force? If the germans cared about national security, shouldn't they be looking in that first?

*looks over at Ukraine*

Yes, I'm sure the Germans are eager to expel American troops right now.

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#307
post #217

Intel spent tens of billions on stock buybacks and now they're getting subsidies to build fabs. Why does the middle class taxpayer have to bail everyone out, with lower living standards due to taxation and inflation.

They stopped doing that in Q1 of 2021 for obvious reasons. Notice all the zeroes https://www.intc.com/stock-info/dividends-and-buybacks Also, "Upcoming Dividends: There are no future dividends presently declared for INTC as of Jun 7th, 2022. The declaration and payment of dividends are at the discretion of the Company." I suppose one could argue that they shouldn't have done that in the quarters before now but they a…

I think, declaring dividend is linked to their earnings report. For ex. last ER was on 4/28 and few days before that, they declared their dividend. So, its not given that there won't be any dividend in 2022 or so. Next earnings is in Jul, so we would get to know that sooner. As a side note, if any company declares dividend reduction or stops them altogether, I would expect the stock to drop like a rock. see AT&T in last year.

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC/dividends/history edit: added history

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that the act of giving subsidies to foreign companies automatically kills any case for investing in a truly local chip company, because you can't easily compete against that.

Competing with Intel is out of the question for any local chip company. But semiconductors is much much much more than high end CPUs. There’s totally a huge opportunity for local chip companies to grow. And having company like Intel may help, as people who work there will get a lot of know how that they can take to smaller local companies to help them grow.

> Competing with Intel is out of the question for any local chip company.

Why? Intell lost the mobile, and is currently losing desktop/server. RISC-V is more promising each passing day. If India can do this, why can't Europe: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31243674

Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#309

Stupid move by Germany, giving even more money to the US corporations. In fact, the EU as a whole is presently doing just that, those Next Generation EU funds will, for a great part, find their place in the coffers of the big US tech companies. It goes like this: EU gives billions of dollars to EU national governments but with many strings attached -> an important part of those strings is related to digitisation -> t…

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Re: Germany paying $5.5B for Intel fab

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That part is solved: (1) German BASF is one of the manufactures for "semiconductor chemicals". (2) More important: Getting parts from Malaysia (etc) is no issue as I don't think they plan to attack any neighboring countries in the next decade. Also, they did not start a trade boycott against Lithuania just over the name of an trade office.

If there is a conflict with China, maritime routes will become much less reliable than they are now, after 75+ years of peace and 30+ years of a unipolar international system.

Plus, I suspect that in a The West vs China war a country like Malaysia will think twice before choosing a side, and I'm afraid they won't choose the West by default.
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