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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#301
post #177

This will (proportionately)happen to downtown Palo Alto when Palantir moves out, though that will probably be good for downtown. They had too large a percentage of the available real estate. The city council ought to find a way to stop this kind of monoculture though I’m not sure how it could reasonably be done.

Graduated property tax.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developers in Chicago are building as fast as they can right now. It's counterintuitive to people on the outside, but from what I read, it's because labor, material, and capital are dirt cheap. So the developers are putting up new skyscrapers and other mega-developments so they're in a good position to take advantage of the recovery. A new 57-story office tower opened just last week: https://www.chicagoarchitecture.o…

I was under the impression that building materials are very expensive right now.

Yep, soft wood prices are up 20-25% right now.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#303
post #260

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

At risk of extreme naivety, why do failed real estate investments merit Fed support and attention? I thought they were just for maintaining a sound dollar and liquidity and the financial system, not charity for real estate kings.

Because the worst case scenario looks a lot like the '08 crash. These developers are highly leveraged, because property values were skyrocketing in major cities. It was a "you can't lose" situation. And now major banks are stuck holding the loans again, and these guys simply won't be able to make their payments.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#304
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thankfully you can do sound isolation without concrete. If they do that or want to save money is a different topic I guess.

> Concrete separation also acts as fire barriers, which is very important in areas where people will be cooking stuff Sheetrock (gypsum) can solve this problem if you use enough of it. But that can get expensive.

Usually fire code mandates a 2 hour fire rating for each unit, so you end up with two parallel air gapped 2×4 walls that have sufficient sheetrock on the one side facing the unit the wall was built for to get that 2 hour fire rating.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#305
post #260

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

At risk of extreme naivety, why do failed real estate investments merit Fed support and attention? I thought they were just for maintaining a sound dollar and liquidity and the financial system, not charity for real estate kings.

Nothing wrong with your question, the thing you're missing is that many of the commercial buildings are not owned outright. What is happening is similar to what happened in 2008 with residential housing, all be it the reasons for the occurrence are very different.

Probably the worst consequence from a failed commercial real estate market will be the collapse of the economy that services and depends on these spaces. Restaurants, trasport, maintenance workers and so on will inevitably fail. This will lead to loan defaults, bankruptcies and eventually this trickles down to every citizen in the community if not the country.

For a historical view of this type of collapse, look into any resource based boom to bust city or town. The sad part is those that can leave, get out long before the SHTF and it's only the middle class to poor left holding the bag. Then when the Fed steps up with a bailout the parasitic rich start showing up again to ride the recovery, lining their pockets once again.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I don’t think “low taxes” are “reasonable”. We live in a complicated society and we all benefit when we collectively pay people to do a huge variety of important jobs which are hard to fit into a pure-profit system. Cutting funding for those exposes us to a wide variety of risks and eliminates many future opportunities, in the long term harming us all. The Covid pandemic is a perfect case study in the way…

There are really two axes that everyone seems to conflate into one. There is funding, as in whether or not there is sufficient funding to achieve certain outcomes. Then there is competence, as in managing the resources to achieve certain outcomes. Both are necessary but neither sufficient by themselves, only together. The U.S. seems to be stuck in a loop wherein the available funds are argued about endlessly, and eve…

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends, and whilst San Francisco can’t be compared to Harlow there can be some tragic ramifications: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-47720887

I mean, Terminus House was essentially turned into a large project where people were dumped, an approach that has shown similarly disastrous results in the US for decades. That's quite different from turning office space into desirable apartments.

In what way? In Harlow, government took a hands off approach on zoning and oversight and let the free market figure out housing for the country's poorest.

It all seems very similar to me. I'm sure at the start they also thought they were turning defunct office space into desirable apartments too.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#308
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At risk of extreme naivety, why do failed real estate investments merit Fed support and attention? I thought they were just for maintaining a sound dollar and liquidity and the financial system, not charity for real estate kings.

The central component of the American Dream is that, once you're rich, the government will do everything in its power to make sure you remain rich.

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#309

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

I’d she’s based in SF why didn’t she contact the SF Fed?

She was contacted by them based on an article she wrote, she didn't contact them.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#310
post #194

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

I can't help but think this take is projecting a bit too much. Inundated? How so? What are you seeing? Tax benefits, work-life balance and bigger homes? Really, you can see these changes in the last 6 months of a pandemic? I could be wrong but I don't think the majority of employers are letting employees change states (and state taxes). WFH does not mean work from anywhere, especially tax-wise. This all sounds plausi…

A majority of tech workers in California are from somewhere else, who came to California for the opportunity. They know what it's like back home. And yes, especially the 30-somethings with kids, they're leaving
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