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Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

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Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The jobs you listed have largely been augmented rather than replaced. You’re also not accounting for new jobs we can’t even imagine yet. Ten years ago no one would think YouTuber or Instragram model would be viable jobs for some people. Social media directors at companies large and small have to find unique ways to engage with other humans. The guy that fixes cracked screens on smartphones couldn’t have done that in…

On a large scale, there's no meaningful difference between augmenting or replacing a job. If an industry augments a function employing 100000 people so that every person can do twice as much, then that has the exact same effect as fully replacing a function that employed 50000 people; in both cases they need 50000 people less and they should do something else.

Augmentation increases productivity and as long as the organization has demand for their goods or services, they will keep the more productive employees to serve demand.

Demand is the key to the whole equation. No demand, no employees, automated or human.

Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If you just discount the rest of the world then you're talking about Talking about a country with population of ~325M which we both happen to live in far from being merely "random examples" in my opinion. >higher education is not necessary to fill the 6M blue collar jobs 6M jobs in a country of 325M. That's 2 years worth of high school graduates for you. Not exactly inspiring, don't you think? >The people at the bot…

Yes, talking about a fraction of US population, which itself is just a few percent of global population, while billions of lives have been improved is random samples. If you must scope your argument that narrowly, it does not hold. The US also has the greatest opportunity and socioeconomic mobility in the world and this has only improved. Your attempting to piece together a narrative from disparate data while ignorin…

>random samples.

“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

>The US also has the greatest opportunity and socioeconomic mobility in the world

Hahaha no. We are lagging behind Canada, Australia, Spain, for example, and not by a small margin[1]

>we already track measures for what you're talking about

Yes! That's my point!

>and they all show great improvements.

No they do not! They do the opposite!

See the little numbers in square brackets, like [1]? They refer to footnotes. There are links in the footnotes. There's data there, data that supports what I'm saying.

Try arguing in the same way: make your statements quantifiable, and follow up with references that support your statements. It's fun, and we all learn something!

[1] https://www.epi.org/publication/usa-lags-peer-countries-mobi...

Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which Democrats don't support redistribution of wealth? I didn't know any such Democrats existed.

This was intended as a serious question in good faith so the downvotes and lack of responses are unfortunate. To elaborate: Hillary Clinton's 2016 platform included increasing the inheritance tax, and she's about as centrist as Democrats get these days. The inheritance tax is redistributive. Did any Democrats come out against her position? https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2016/09/23/hillary-c...

Redistribution of wealth usually refers to seizing private assets directly, rather than simply creating more taxes. Democrats almost universally support private ownership of the means of production, where the opposite would be either workers ownership of companies held in trust or the nationalization of companies and industries.

Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One reason why this seems unrealistic is that if "the lower class form productive collectives", they stop contributing to the ultra wealthy but will not generate their own real wealth. Currently, wealth generation is not really labor-limited (especially for the kind of labor that the lower class of population can do), and such a collective wouldn't generate much if any wealth because as "automation will increase our…

I agree with most of what you are saying, but not with the takeaway. Yes, I absolutely expect these collectives to be less productive than the wealthy class. Does that matter? I’m thinking it doesn’t! The biggest reason is that currently the wealthy take 95+% of the wealth they create, so the fact that they’re more productive has little affect on the workers who live off the paltry wage they are paid. A collective th…

Thing is, "currently the wealthy take 95+% of the wealth they create" is an accurate description of the dynamics in pretty much any industry, in pretty much no business has so extreme margins, probably not even if you're digging out gold and diamonds with slave labor. Even in industries where the largest value added is IP and branding (e.g. Apple), so direct expenses are comparably low, you get margins like 40%, and those are the winner-take-all economy-of-scale industries where worker collectives can't plausibly ever compete.

If the margins in a "wealthy-class-run" company are 20% and they take it all out as profit; then a competing worker collective that's 20% less efficient would have a margin of 0 and no profit whatsoever and no ability to pay their workers more. You can run a labor-heavy shop as a collective (e.g. fast food has had some successes) but anything relating to manufacturing seems just wishful thinking.

Your example of commodity robotics would bring the per-item robot cost down, but that that would make the whole industry much more capital intensive - if robots are expensive, then there's more labor and less robots; if robots are cheap, then you replace more workers with robots and the percentage of capital vs labor shifts to capital. If robots are expensive, then a less automated workshop can compete price-wise with a large, more automated factory. If robots are cheap, then the large factories that get economies of scale on configuring and integrating these robots simply drive down the cost of end product so much that any smaller shop can't compete at all. No matter how cheap robots are, the worker collective can't afford to build as large and as automated factories that the wealthy capitalists can.

A separate point is that if cheap commodity robots would enable worker collectives to run a just as automated operation, then it's impossible for most people who leave their "overlords" to join those collectives - if an industry now has 100000 employees; and because of arrival of very cheap commodity robots the results can get done with 10000 employees, then it doesn't matter much if that revenue gets taken by a capitalist employing 10000 laborers; a worker collective of 10000 people; or 5000 / 5000 in tight competition... then it doesn't matter because 90000 people have to leave the industry anyway, even the worker collectives have no need for them.

Let's use self-driving taxis as an example of automation. Let's assume that some time in the future, cheap commodity "robots" driving cars enable automation for most of taxi driving. In the "capitalist overlord" scenario, Uber runs and manages self-driving taxis. In the "workers collective" scenario, a bunch of current taxi drivers form a collective, buy "commodity robots" i.e. hardware that makes their cars self-driving (to have comparable efficiency/price with competitors) and run and manage a company that competes with Uber... but they won't drive taxis anyway, they're maintaining and managing a self-driving-taxi company that doesn't need much if any actual drivers. Now what's the practical difference between them forming a "workers collective" versus them buying shares in any other self-driving taxi company? In both cases they're the owners, but not the workers, because their work has been made obsolete by automation. In both cases they get their income as rent on their capital, not wages for their labor; at least not most of them. If they can't afford to buy the shares, then they can't afford the capital investment to start an equivalent competing company, those should be pretty much the same amounts.

Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#305
post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The money saved gets taxed twice: as corporate income and then when distributed to shareholders again as individual income. It likely gets taxed at a higher rate, actually, because the income tax rate of the workers this replaces is probably very low but the rate of the company + the individual could easily be 60%.

Could you break down how you get to "easily" 60%?

If the money is passed back in dividends instead of share buybacks, it's taxed as income. The people who are receiving this income are probably quite wealthy. Let's lowball it and say that they were making $200,000 per year before receiving the dividends. I live in Louisiana, so I'll use a Louisiana income tax calculator [0]. At $200,000 per year, the marginal tax rate is 39.4%. The whole income is not taxed at this level, but any income you earn past $200,000 (e.g. dividends) is.

Uniqlo is a Japanese retailer, so they would be paying Japanese corporate tax rates. I can't pretend to be an expert in Japanese corporate tax, so my estimate of their marginal tax rate is just going to be their profit divided by their tax paid for the latest financial year I can find. We can find these data from their 2017 financial statements [1]. In 2017 they paid $584,025,000 in income taxes out of a total of $1,751,484,000 income before taxes. This gives us almost exactly a 1/3 marginal rate (33.345%).

Combining the personal and corporate tax rates gives us 1 - (2/3 * (1-.394)) = 59.6% tax rate. I may have underestimated the easily part, but in most states income tax would be slightly higher than in Louisiana, which would push us over the 60% threshold.

For comparison, an average worker in a warehouse might be making $30,000 per year. At that income, the total tax burden is $5,578 = 18.59%.

[0]: https://smartasset.com/taxes/louisiana-paycheck-calculator [1]: https://www.fastretailing.com/eng/ir/library/pdf/ar2017_en_1...

Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#306
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> humans being _reduced_ to the level of machines (and in some ways subservient to them) Oh, you mean like Uber and Deliveroo drivers? In the last century, humans served machines. In this century, they will serve algorithms. Lang's work is more relevant than ever. In many ways we are re-living the events of 100 years ago, only this time the US are in the driving seat, rather than Europe.

> Oh, you mean like Uber and Deliveroo drivers? How is that any different than a waiter working for a restaurant or cafe? The old nature of things doesn't change if you replace a notepad with a web service.

> How is that any different than a waiter working for a restaurant or cafe?

This is the sort of insensitive and short-sighted remark that gives HN a bad name.

In one job, you work with a group of people, answering to people. In the other, you work alone, answering to a computer. The computer doesn't care if today you have a headache, your mother died, your child needs to see a doctor, or customer XYZ is an asshole: you will only be compensated precisely for how productive you are at any given time. The computer won't make you favours and won't help you any differently on any given day. You will not get to know the computer better over time, you won't become friends and go out together, or collaborate on a new business. The computer won't invite you to his wedding or introduce you to his children.

It's weird that we have to be reminded of this, but there is no humanity in the relationship with an algorithm.

Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with most of what you are saying, but not with the takeaway. Yes, I absolutely expect these collectives to be less productive than the wealthy class. Does that matter? I’m thinking it doesn’t! The biggest reason is that currently the wealthy take 95+% of the wealth they create, so the fact that they’re more productive has little affect on the workers who live off the paltry wage they are paid. A collective th…

Thing is, "currently the wealthy take 95+% of the wealth they create" is an accurate description of the dynamics in pretty much any industry, in pretty much no business has so extreme margins, probably not even if you're digging out gold and diamonds with slave labor. Even in industries where the largest value added is IP and branding (e.g. Apple), so direct expenses are comparably low, you get margins like 40%, and…

Thanks for the stimulating conversation.

Regarding efficiency: that’s a good point about lower efficiency leading to zero/negative profits, and this reflects a reality for many workers collectives today. That said, I would expect these collectives to charge higher prices, perhaps 1.5-2x as much, and let consumers decide. I’d definitely rather pay more for quality goods that support a more fair system, and usually find it difficult to do so.

Regarding collectives versus buying shares: a key and significant difference with collectives is the notion that each member has equal voting power for decisions made within the company. Shareholders meanwhile have less control, owing to the power of the board of directors. Concentrating power makes anti-social behavior more likely, as the class difference between the board and everyone else means decisions they make may not affect them the same way they affect others. This is significantly less pronounced in a coop as I describe, so there is less anti-social interference caused by businesses in this scenario.

You have other good points I’d like to reply to, but I’ve got to run. I just wanted to mention that a key thing I feel you are missing is that working for and a society made up of worker cooperatives would lead to a qualitatively different life. It’s not a pure apples to apples competition scenario as I am advocating that people actively make buying and employment decisions based on a desire to realize this new cooperative society. I agree with you that absent ideology, the capitalist organization would crush the coops based solely on a selfish purchasing decision. That is, the capitalist products may be cheaper and may be better (or not), but I still believe a coop can survive and thrive if enough people choose to stop supporting the capitalist way.

These terms are a bit loose by the way - I stil describe a scenario rooted in a fabric of capitalism. The coops sell to each other based on markets if they want, or other agreements if they want. No government interference is required. And I advocate that these groups behave in intentionally pro social ways. It takes devotion and energy and heart. It is not for those simply looking to make a buck.

Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#308
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know if thats true: I think everyone wants a “fair” distribution of wealth. The question is in the definition of fair, and means to achieve it. Conservatives believe that distribution achieved by tax and regulation will hurt the total economic production of the US, and lead to everyone being worse off, though more equal (in the extreme: everyone is equally poor), and they also consider it fair that the distri…

One aspect of UBI (when/if we can afford to implement it) is that it presents some solution the problem you describe if it's unconditional. If everyone has an set-in-stone income provided by the society because the robots are doing all the low-level jobs and the society doesn't need their labor, then they still have sufficient free time and ability to do something extra to increase their position. There are many usef…

One function of UBI has never been clear to me: if everyone has X, then no one does.

Applied to UBI’s case, the baseline of $0 has been “lifted” to say $1500; wouldn’t that just cause the market to increase prices proportionally, until $1500 is effectively the same as $0? Specifically, those baseline goods/services where that $1500 targets?

I would imagine luxury goods wouldn’t change much, as those spending in the area won’t change their spending behavior significantly with a fresh $1500; but a poorer community certainly would, and I would expect the market to match

Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was intended as a serious question in good faith so the downvotes and lack of responses are unfortunate. To elaborate: Hillary Clinton's 2016 platform included increasing the inheritance tax, and she's about as centrist as Democrats get these days. The inheritance tax is redistributive. Did any Democrats come out against her position? https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2016/09/23/hillary-c...

Redistribution of wealth usually refers to seizing private assets directly, rather than simply creating more taxes. Democrats almost universally support private ownership of the means of production, where the opposite would be either workers ownership of companies held in trust or the nationalization of companies and industries.

> Redistribution of wealth usually refers to seizing private assets directly, rather than simply creating more taxes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistribution_of_income_and_w... says: "Redistribution of income and redistribution of wealth are respectively the transfer of income and of wealth (including physical property) from some individuals to others by means of a social mechanism such as taxation, charity, welfare, public services, land reform, monetary policies, confiscation, divorce or tort law."

Re: Uniqlo cut 90% of staff at one warehouse by replacing them with robots

#310
post #156

I love uniqlo doubling down on tech. One thing I found really interesting is that inside the labels are small rfid (I think?) chips. At the cashier, the person just folds them nicely, puts the pile of cloth on a metal pad and the system tells you how many items and how much it is. No manual code scanning!! The first time I noticed that I felt like a kid again discovering something magical. The next step was to have p…

Do those tags stay on the clothes afterward? Or are those external to the clothes?

The staff told me it’s inside the price label so I’m guessing it stays on
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