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Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

nytimes.com

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Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#301

Post by cynicalkane »

herge wrote: post #283
Omnipresent wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any particular reason?

It's cheap today, maybe not tomorrow when the panic will have worn off.

To algo market makers, inverse and leveraged indices are free money. They are bought almost exclusively by clueless traders with poor execution, making it easy for market makers to shave their pennies, and due to their dynamic leveraging requirements, bleed value during market gyrations like a puddle evaporating water.

Don't buy indices with a coefficient other than 1 unless you think Wall Street is a noble cause to give money to. If you want to short volatility, use options on major indices. Better yet, don't short volatility at all unless you know what you're doing.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#302

Post by lotharbot »

acjohnson55 wrote: post #152

A whole lot of aphorisms in this commentary about falling knives and dead cats, but very little actual information. If you're trying to time the bottom you may as well take your money to the blackjack table. The quants are probably going to make a bunch of money, but if you're just a regular person, you should probably just continue making your regularly scheduled 401k contributions and diversified investments. Histo…

If you're just a regular person, you shouldn't be trying to make millisecond-timing decisions. But you can absolutely say "thus-and-such appears to be systematically underpriced" and make a decision to transition some funds toward bargains.

I recognized there were bargains to be had in March of 2009. I didn't hit the exact bottom (March 6), but I got some pretty nice deals on March 12.

Right now, I wouldn't go out of my way to make excess contributions. The signal isn't strong enough. But sometimes it is.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#303

Post by nostrademons »

FilterSweep wrote: post #78
andrelaszlo wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I had predicted the actual meltdown for September of 2015, but I guess this is pretty close. I wonder how this will affect my life, if at all." If you predicted it, then it should at least make you rich? :)

I'm guessing most HN commenters don't have the liquidity to become rich off a crash, unless they had knowledge in specific industries and companies that were set to get hit hardest. Not all Chinese sectors of industry are equally hurt by this collapse. Besides, it wasn't just this commenter who predicted it. Many have before. In fact, even the laypress TV news like 60-Minutes have pointed out issues that will cause m…

The problem is that many people are continously predicting a crash. If you grant that they're right now, you also have to grant that they've been wrong for years. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#304

Post by vezzy-fnord »

merpnderp wrote: post #272
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Europe socialism created limited working hours, affordable health care, free public education all the way to university level - and beyond - and was also responsible for massive investment in infrastructure and R&D. Modern social democratic states wouldn't exist without it. You might want to understand what the word means before running down a political system you seem to know nothing about. As for abject poverty…

I'd hardly call Europe socialist. Socialism is the social ownership (state ownership) of the means of production. A welfare state is a state with large programs to ensure the welfare of the people, which better describes much of Europe. As for extreme poverty, China has seen a 90% reduction in extreme poverty since 1981, and India has seen a 60% reduction since 1981, and Sub-Saharan Africa has seen a 12%. The Indian…

Socialism is the social ownership (state ownership) of the means of production.

Social ownership != state ownership. That's only one manifestation of it. Socialism has historically been about common ownership, which implies decentralized, democratically structured worker cooperatives. One existing example today is Mondragon.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#305

Post by debacle »

vasilipupkin wrote: post #252

I just want to offer everyone a professional piece of advice. Large down moves in equity markets is exactly when you should buy equities because that's when expected returns are at their highest.

I'll counter with some amateur advice - things still seem historically overpriced.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#306

Post by JoeAltmaier »

nostrademons wrote: post #303
FilterSweep wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm guessing most HN commenters don't have the liquidity to become rich off a crash, unless they had knowledge in specific industries and companies that were set to get hit hardest. Not all Chinese sectors of industry are equally hurt by this collapse. Besides, it wasn't just this commenter who predicted it. Many have before. In fact, even the laypress TV news like 60-Minutes have pointed out issues that will cause m…

The problem is that many people are continously predicting a crash. If you grant that they're right now, you also have to grant that they've been wrong for years . Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Not fair. A well-regulated system would NEVER crash. That this one does, and folks predicted it, has nothing to do with timing, and everything to do with cogent analysis of a flawed system.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#307

Post by Spooky23 »

acconrad wrote: post #202
rsmckinney wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Historically speaking" Historically speaking, when has the Fed kept interest rates at ZERO for 7 years? After pumping QE full throttle at $80B/mo? The economy has been in continuous "recovery" mode since '08, but not much has actually recovered. The market is going to collapse my friend because, historically speaking, we are in dark, uncharted territory and have lost our way back.

We were also in uncharted territory when the stock market collapsed in 1929. The market had never crashed like that before. The market had also never crashed like 2000 because the internet tech sector had never existed like that before. The market had also never crashed like in 2008 because home loans had never been so lax in terms of lending such highly-leveraged loans to such low quality lenders. Every new crash li…

That's a ridiculous assertion. The trivialities may differ, but fundamentals are generally pretty close. Crashes happen when reality catches up to people's perceptions.

The phenomenon where lots of cheap capital causes junk companies to do dumb things fueled by debt isn't a new one.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#308

Post by blakecaldwell »

slg wrote: post #288
grellas wrote: post #238

People's investment philosophy will vary and tolerance for risk will play a major role in it all. My own view is this, and it is based on a lifetime of having made all the typical mistakes. Steady is the best way to go for your investable funds. That means, go with stocks for a decent segment of your investments but temper this with investments that will help preserve capital when things get rocky. Keep a ratio betwe…

Beyond the slow and steady recommendation, I also think this is a reminder that most people really shouldn't be paying attention to the day to day movement of the stock market. Even after all the panic, standard total market ETFs are currently down between 1-2%. It would look like a perfectly normal day on the market if you ignore the intraday prices. It is amazing how much of the market volatility disappears when yo…

Yep. If you invest broadly enough, then shrug this off and consider that the market is on sale today. Your existing holdings will return to their yesterday prices at some point, and everything you buy in the meantime will have gone up.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#309

Post by saryant »

rm999 wrote: post #223
pyrrhotech wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way quants can make money is from active traders on the other side. It's impossible for quants to make money off buy and hold index investors. If everyone took your advice (and I do), there'd be no such thing as quants

The typical self-described "buy and hold investor" I know is actually a "buy and hold then panic and sell" investor. Take a look at r/investing to see what I'm talking about. I'm not criticizing them per se; it's unnerving to imagine half your life savings or retirement being gone in a flash.

Since when is /r/investing a buy-and-hold type of place? Those guys live at /r/personalfinance.

Re: Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows

#310

Post by notNow »

randomname2 wrote: post #298

Markets are green again thanks in part to move in AAPL worth over 80B in market cap. This happened after Tim Cook's email to Jim Cramer, which may have violated Fair Disclosure regulations: https://mobile.twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/6357996299...

There's a share buyback program ongoing for Apple. So, I am not really surprised that they are defending their stock in the market and bidding it up. Note also that APPL's cash reserves are YUGE and they can play this game for some time.
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