Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly' • Hacker News Board

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#31

Post by quickthrowman » Fri, Aug 07, 2026, 5:31 PM UTC

ninju wrote: post #23

There have already been examples of people manipulating scientific readings to make a quick buck on a prediction market bet https://www.npr.org/2026/04/23/nx-s1-5797876/polymarket-pari...

There are examples of people manipulating precipitation monitors to get crop insurance payouts: https://www.agweb.com/news/business/rain-robbers-how-four-fa...

The incentive was already there without prediction markets, just like the incentive to screw with drug trials has been around as long as biotech companies that are publicly traded have been making drugs. Wherever there is a measurement tied to a monetary payout, unscrupulous people will try to manipulate it.

This doesn’t change anything since the incentive already existed before prediction markets, people are getting unreasonably emotional about prediction markets due to headline overload.

Creating a new incentive where one does not exist can create moral hazards, an easy example is introducing wildfire prediction markets.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#32

Post by bb88 » Fri, Aug 07, 2026, 7:09 PM UTC

kwikiel wrote: post #8

idiotsecant wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?

Usually the reverse problem is happening - company does pump its stock based on potentially having their drug accepted but it’s usually the case that it will be rejected - but you don’t k ow that for sure for many years - prediction market may help here

But through short selling the stock market already allows the ability to bet against a company.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#33

Post by bb88 » Fri, Aug 07, 2026, 7:14 PM UTC

andai wrote: post #13

idiotsecant wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?

> Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, What is this referring to?

N=1 here, but I'm sure you can find many many more examples.

In a mass shooting in Boise, Idaho, a woman stole items off a fallen security guard that was lying on the floor.

https://idahonews.com/news/local/police-idaho-woman-stole-it...

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#34

Post by andai » Fri, Aug 07, 2026, 8:36 PM UTC

zaik wrote: post #20

tencentshill wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia and Iran are known to hire teenagers online to kill targets in Europe for little money.

I never heard of this. Do we know somebody who was killed this way?

I don't know about teenagers but my last boss was bragging about how little money it costs to have someone killed.

I think he was trying to boost morale.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#35

Post by DonsDiscountGas » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 1:46 AM UTC

Ekaros wrote: post #3

How is such bets any different than options trading? If one is reasonable I don't see why the other would be that much different.

From a moral perspective I don't think it is. From a more practical perspective... It's only tiny biotechs where the share price exactly tracks a single clinical trial. This opens up ways to make more specific bets

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#36

Post by jeffreyames » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 6:06 AM UTC

glaslong wrote: post #17

andai wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, What is this referring to?

Turns out the Spokane wildfire was arson initiated. While Kalshi and PM have bets going on wildfire predictions. I don't think there's a smoking Molotov there yet, but the incentives sure don't seem great! Doesn't seem a huge leap there. Nor does a pissed off janitor who could turn $100 into $1,000 by trashing the wrong samples. Or a bigger player who can turn their $500k into $5M by paying that janitor $1,000.

You’re imagining a 10x payout for sabotaging a trial. That would be a trial with about 90% odds of succeeding when most trials are likely to fail. And this isn’t a high school science experiment a single janitor can easily sabotage. Any drug with high odds for approval has already shown significant evidence of efficacy and safety. Tampering would not shut down the whole development process with hundreds of millions poured into it.

Re: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'

#37

Post by jeffreyames » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 6:11 AM UTC

idiotsecant wrote: post #6

jeffreyames wrote: post #5

[flagged]

This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?

A system that’s more robust to meddling than you’re imagining