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SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

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Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#31

Post by JumpCrisscross »

piloto_ciego wrote: post #16
zulux wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any idea how they're handling the space data center heat problems? Energy harvesting in space is easy, while getting rid of heat is quite hard.

Scott Manley had a really good video on it that more or less confirmed my "bar napkin approximations" when people first started talking about this stuff. I think it's this one? https://youtu.be/DCto6UkBJoI?si=opcoaBEqKmw4LCrF Anyway, I think sun synchronous orbit (basically slightly off from polar) and pointing the solar panels toward the sun and the radiator away... It's not as far fetched as people would have you b…

Yup. It’s weirdly closer than I would have thought before sitting down with pen and paper.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#32

Post by XorNot »

piloto_ciego wrote: post #21
ajam1507 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I know people gnash their teeth at that, but I'm pretty convinced the ass-pain associated with getting a data center constructed on the planet with all the NIMBY stuff will be will incentivize space data centers too. You can build solar panels practically anywhere with enough daylight. Space data centers will never make any sense and it's clearly bait for people who will believe anything.

I would have agreed with you a couple years ago... but not in the last year or so? People complaining about change and construction near them is a real factor. We can't even build houses during a housing crisis because of NIMBY nonsense and a wildly bloated set of rules for what and where you can build stuff.

See that detail of "near them"? Yeah it's a crucial one.

For some reason data center companies keep wanting to build data centers near existing utilities, near existing roads and transport infrastructure, and near existing electrical utilities.

Not in the middle of a desert. Or the antarctic. Or decommissioned oil fields.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#33

Post by overtone1000 »

piloto_ciego wrote: post #25
wat10000 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the concrete stuff you describe is plenty justification for a really high valuation. Maybe a couple hundred billion, even. To justify a couple trillion, you have to really believe in orbital data centers, which just don’t make much sense. If NIMBY is the issue, it’s literally a thousand times cheaper to bribe the government of some poor country and put your stuff there than it is to put it in fricken space .

We will see, but I don't buy it. We can't build housing in a housing crisis, or build high speed rail anywhere it seems, things aren't going to get built under the current paradigm at the same rate. We will see, but I bet this is what we see.

SpaceX is now publicly traded, so go and place that bet!

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#34

Post by danpalmer »

fhdkweig wrote: post #23
piloto_ciego wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is literally the only company that has a reliable partially re-usable launch vehicle, and they're probably going to be the only company with a fully re-usable launch vehicle. Nobody else except maybe for some chinese companies and kind of RocketLab is even close. They basically have a monopoly... They're launching like 150 rockets a year or something like that? It's bananas. They have star link too. Honestly,…

The point of the article isn't whether they are a good company or not. It is whether their stock price is justified. Even if they are the best in their field, they can't just name their stock price. At the end of the day, it has to be rooted somewhere in fundamental numbers.

It doesn't have to be rooted in fundamental numbers. It should be, it would make more sense if it was, but the market is the only thing that matters. See also: Tesla, a failing car company with a strong history of empty promises, and a currently empty promise of solving labour, and they're worth more than all the other car companies combined.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#35

Post by brianwawok »

XorNot wrote: post #32
piloto_ciego wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would have agreed with you a couple years ago... but not in the last year or so? People complaining about change and construction near them is a real factor. We can't even build houses during a housing crisis because of NIMBY nonsense and a wildly bloated set of rules for what and where you can build stuff.

See that detail of "near them"? Yeah it's a crucial one. For some reason data center companies keep wanting to build data centers near existing utilities, near existing roads and transport infrastructure, and near existing electrical utilities. Not in the middle of a desert. Or the antarctic. Or decommissioned oil fields.

Still cheaper to run power lines to a desert over run a data center in space

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#36

Post by grim_io »

cadamsdotcom wrote: post #3

Money talks, even through the walls that should keep analysts and bankers from talking. And fomo is human. We need transparency combined with widespread education and high trust so folks believe the few that investigate. All these pillars are needed - that's why we see attacks on all of them.

That "wall" doesn't exist anymore. Trump tore it down.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#37

Post by mensetmanusman »

XorNot wrote: post #32
piloto_ciego wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would have agreed with you a couple years ago... but not in the last year or so? People complaining about change and construction near them is a real factor. We can't even build houses during a housing crisis because of NIMBY nonsense and a wildly bloated set of rules for what and where you can build stuff.

See that detail of "near them"? Yeah it's a crucial one. For some reason data center companies keep wanting to build data centers near existing utilities, near existing roads and transport infrastructure, and near existing electrical utilities. Not in the middle of a desert. Or the antarctic. Or decommissioned oil fields.

-We should put data centers where no one is!

/s

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#39

Post by jordanb »

piloto_ciego wrote: post #16
zulux wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any idea how they're handling the space data center heat problems? Energy harvesting in space is easy, while getting rid of heat is quite hard.

Scott Manley had a really good video on it that more or less confirmed my "bar napkin approximations" when people first started talking about this stuff. I think it's this one? https://youtu.be/DCto6UkBJoI?si=opcoaBEqKmw4LCrF Anyway, I think sun synchronous orbit (basically slightly off from polar) and pointing the solar panels toward the sun and the radiator away... It's not as far fetched as people would have you b…

Did we watch the same video? My takeaway from Manley is that it is something that can pencil out as a physics problem with a very carefully selected orbit

But as an engineering problem it's quite another thing. For example he talks about how far you have to pump the ammonia, and then you either need a very large amount of ammonia, or you have to pump a smaller amount of ammonia very fast through kilometers of plumbing.

Of course there are highly theoretical ideas like making an atmosphere of coolant around the satellite or something but he left that stuff on the sci fi category.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#40

Post by tclarke142 »

Sell side research exists to get deals and sell securities. The main reason Morgan Stanley gets so much business from Musk is because Adam Jonas (probably Musk's No.2 fan after Cathie Wood) loves insane upgrades and price targets on TSLA.

But to be fair to Musk he is probably the GOAT at executing unlike Cathie who incinerates money by the tonne.

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