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SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

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11–20 of 48 posts

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#11
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not about fundamental value, it’s about how rational everyone else is.

Yep. Keesian Beauty Contest! (Dear Reader, if you have no idea what that is, it's a good idea to know about in my opinion)

Emperors new clothes.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#12
Wall Street “analysts” are as right about the market as a coin flip. Downgrading a price target from $30 to $28 when the stock has trended from $20 to $15 in the last 12 months or raising the target from $450 to $500 when the stock price grew from $300 to $320. They’re not even remotely right on most things and are lagging indicators when they right.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#13
post #6

Like every other group, there is some amount of groupthink happening with Wall Street analysts. They all came to similar incorrect conclusions because they are working with similar information using similar techniques towards similar goals. This creates a level of bias, even if banks didn't have incentives to write bullish projections. Getting a diversity of opinions doesn't mean talking to 10 experts in the same fie…

SpaceX is literally the only company that has a reliable partially re-usable launch vehicle, and they're probably going to be the only company with a fully re-usable launch vehicle. Nobody else except maybe for some chinese companies and kind of RocketLab is even close. They basically have a monopoly...

They're launching like 150 rockets a year or something like that? It's bananas. They have star link too.

Honestly, I think people are asleep at the wheel with the valuation and shorting it seems stupid. They have the star shield thing, and hypothetically point-to-point QRF systems for governments with star ship. Then there's space data centers.

I know people gnash their teeth at that, but I'm pretty convinced the ass-pain associated with getting a data center constructed on the planet with all the NIMBY stuff will be will incentivize space data centers too.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#14
post #11
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Keesian Beauty Contest! (Dear Reader, if you have no idea what that is, it's a good idea to know about in my opinion)

Emperors new clothes.

There's a relationship in that a persuasive kid pointing out the obvious flaws could collapse a Keynesian beauty contest.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#15
post #6

Like every other group, there is some amount of groupthink happening with Wall Street analysts. They all came to similar incorrect conclusions because they are working with similar information using similar techniques towards similar goals. This creates a level of bias, even if banks didn't have incentives to write bullish projections. Getting a diversity of opinions doesn't mean talking to 10 experts in the same fie…

SpaceX is literally the only company that has a reliable partially re-usable launch vehicle, and they're probably going to be the only company with a fully re-usable launch vehicle. Nobody else except maybe for some chinese companies and kind of RocketLab is even close. They basically have a monopoly... They're launching like 150 rockets a year or something like that? It's bananas. They have star link too. Honestly,…

Any idea how they're handling the space data center heat problems? Energy harvesting in space is easy, while getting rid of heat is quite hard.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#16
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is literally the only company that has a reliable partially re-usable launch vehicle, and they're probably going to be the only company with a fully re-usable launch vehicle. Nobody else except maybe for some chinese companies and kind of RocketLab is even close. They basically have a monopoly... They're launching like 150 rockets a year or something like that? It's bananas. They have star link too. Honestly,…

Any idea how they're handling the space data center heat problems? Energy harvesting in space is easy, while getting rid of heat is quite hard.

Scott Manley had a really good video on it that more or less confirmed my "bar napkin approximations" when people first started talking about this stuff. I think it's this one?

https://youtu.be/DCto6UkBJoI?si=opcoaBEqKmw4LCrF

Anyway, I think sun synchronous orbit (basically slightly off from polar) and pointing the solar panels toward the sun and the radiator away... It's not as far fetched as people would have you believe.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#17
post #9
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not about fundamental value, it’s about how rational everyone else is.

Yep. Keesian Beauty Contest! (Dear Reader, if you have no idea what that is, it's a good idea to know about in my opinion)

To save other readers a web search: in a *Keynesian beauty contest, you pick the winners based on who you think others will find most beautiful.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#18
post #5

Que? Market analysis thinks SpaceX sucks as a stock. Heck, it goes against all my value investing instincts for me to even have 2% of my net value in it. To be fair however, 15% of my net value came from Tesla. I obviously have brain worms.

Professional Wall Street analysis is incredibly bullish:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/wall-street-is-bul...

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#19
post #6

Like every other group, there is some amount of groupthink happening with Wall Street analysts. They all came to similar incorrect conclusions because they are working with similar information using similar techniques towards similar goals. This creates a level of bias, even if banks didn't have incentives to write bullish projections. Getting a diversity of opinions doesn't mean talking to 10 experts in the same fie…

SpaceX is literally the only company that has a reliable partially re-usable launch vehicle, and they're probably going to be the only company with a fully re-usable launch vehicle. Nobody else except maybe for some chinese companies and kind of RocketLab is even close. They basically have a monopoly... They're launching like 150 rockets a year or something like that? It's bananas. They have star link too. Honestly,…

> I know people gnash their teeth at that, but I'm pretty convinced the ass-pain associated with getting a data center constructed on the planet with all the NIMBY stuff will be will incentivize space data centers too.

You can build solar panels practically anywhere with enough daylight. Space data centers will never make any sense and it's clearly bait for people who will believe anything.

Re: SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research

#20
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is literally the only company that has a reliable partially re-usable launch vehicle, and they're probably going to be the only company with a fully re-usable launch vehicle. Nobody else except maybe for some chinese companies and kind of RocketLab is even close. They basically have a monopoly... They're launching like 150 rockets a year or something like that? It's bananas. They have star link too. Honestly,…

Any idea how they're handling the space data center heat problems? Energy harvesting in space is easy, while getting rid of heat is quite hard.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2026/02/spacex-has-the-best-ra...
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