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Why eval startups fail (2025)

thomasliao.com

31–40 of 66 posts

Re: Why eval startups fail (2025)

#31
post #27

evals are glorified integration tests, would you invest in an integration test startup? absolutely not. I don't get why we are making all of this fuzz around evals

Because what people actually want is a simple harness to test their use cases against all the frontier models and see which is the cheapest/best for the job.

It's simple to say but hard to master doing well, and the important thing is that no matter what tool you have the evals don't write themselves.

Re: Why eval startups fail (2025)

#33
post #32

Maybe it's not that valuable? No snark, but how much confidence do these evals provide?

Exactly this. I find most eval companies get torn in multiple directions and do not end up putting out useful data. Probably genuine value as a B2B/consulting style service but that quickly falls out of being a pure eval company.

Re: Why eval startups fail (2025)

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Which frontier model is best?" What kind of stupid business is this. Though nothing can beat SEO in that spirit.

It's an important question! If you are paying a lot of money to use AI models, you care that you are using the best for your task. And it turns out that figuring out which AI models is best for your task is not trivial and requires some expertise.

But frontier models are constantly changing.

Re: Why eval startups fail (2025)

#35

What's an eval?

To complement the excellent answers that I read in this thread: an eval is a test.

What makes it particular for the case of AI is:

- there are many situations where you can’t test using pattern matching

- you don’t only like to test correct answers but voice and tone too (imagine a bank support LLM-based chatbot that answers using slang)

- evals can be used to compare the performance of different implementations; given the costs of LLMs, it’s very important

- running evals is more expensive than running standard tests, because you rely on the LLM calls under test, and many times they use LLMs as a judge. It means that running them in every commit of your CI/CD is very expensive

- Knowing all the possible inputs for the LLM is impossible, so evals can also be run on runtime samples to detect anomalies

Re: Why eval startups fail (2025)

#36

What's an eval?

(Author) It's short for "evaluation", a test for an AI model. Specifically, an AI evaluation comprises (1) a dataset of prompts (as questions / tasks / queries), (2) some way to score model performance on each prompt, like a set of correct answers or a grading rubric that you can use with an LLM autograder, and (3) a metric, such as accuracy¹. (If you're already familiar with the term "benchmark", it's the same thing…

That sounds a bit weak as a startup idea. Hard to productize, hard to scale, etc. It sounds more like consulting.

Re: Why eval startups fail (2025)

#37
post #27

evals are glorified integration tests, would you invest in an integration test startup? absolutely not. I don't get why we are making all of this fuzz around evals

There are a number of integration test startups. None of them do a great job but they do exist.

Re: Why eval startups fail (2025)

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Which frontier model is best?" What kind of stupid business is this. Though nothing can beat SEO in that spirit.

It's an important question! If you are paying a lot of money to use AI models, you care that you are using the best for your task. And it turns out that figuring out which AI models is best for your task is not trivial and requires some expertise.

They all change day to day and are non-deterministic by design. Your settled answer is only good for a moment.

Re: Why eval startups fail (2025)

#39
Unfortunately, model quality is not the only criterion for users, and often not even the most important one. Adoption is also driven by marketing, UX, integrations, pricing, ecosystem, and a lot of other non-benchmark factors.

Also, model providers are not interested to have their models compared head-to-head under identical conditions. And “Model A is better than Model B” is almost meaningless by itself. Better for what task? With what prompt? What inputs? What budget? What failure tolerance?

It would be nice to have a place where users could run their own benchmarks, define evaluation criteria for their actual use cases, and make those runs verifiable by others.

Re: Why eval startups fail (2025)

#40

I built a simple (free) eval tool for my own uses (Github Gists + Model Outputs) after not being able to find a suitable one in the market. The market's being split into 1. Longitudinal LLM observability tooling Most eval startups have gone down the route of something more like being an observability platform for LLM inference. They want to be in your stack and running the inference to collect data on performance of…

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