Related:
Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T
Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
31–40 of 208 posts
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
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Not an Elon fan, but markets dictate the value, not analyst reports or "fundamentals". The stock is simply worth whatever people will pay for it. The fact that people are paying an implied valuation of 2T for it currently is a strong signal IMO.
Markets dictate the price. The terms "price" and "value" generally have actual meanings as used in financial markets. The idea that nothing can ever be mispriced (defined as price != value) is not really held by anyone serious.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#33IMHO, still too much. Someone posted this link [1] recently. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI
Additional concern is the push to get it added to indices immediately. Forcing it into our retirement funds, 401ks and IRAs.
The best you can do is avoid the exposure with changes to your portfolio composition while everyone else gets grifted. It's regrettable.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a finite supply of space before we lock ourselves in with trash
The risk here is severely overblown. Low earth orbit is self-cleaning with atmospheric drag. There’s comparatively little in MEO and even in a catastrophic Kessler syndrome scenario it’s still safe to transit through. Polluting higher orbits is so far beyond our current capabilities that it’s not even worth discussing.
Low earth orbit includes orbits that take from hours to centuries to decay, depends a lot on altitude/apogee/perigee. Starlink for multiple reasons places satellites in the range where it takes ~5 years to decay, thankfully. Kessler syndrome is real though, and satellites do collide or break apart in LEO.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#35Which is still 10x what it is worth
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Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#36Doesn't matter, as soon as they can they'll shove it into the indexes, meaning pension funds all over the world will be let holding the bag.
I keep seeing this comment on all these spacex posts, can someone ELI5 to me why the pension funds are going to be forced to buy this? (do they not have free will on what they buy?)
People confuse pension funds with index funds. Index funds will buy SpaceX once it is added to the index.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
Additional concern is the push to get it added to indices immediately. Forcing it into our retirement funds, 401ks and IRAs.
The best you can do is avoid the exposure with changes to your portfolio composition while everyone else gets grifted. It's regrettable.
I think this is poor advice. Its share of the index will be relatively small and if it is indeed a dud, the index will organically rebalance. If you’re a long-term investor, this would just be a temporary blip. On the other hand, if this is thr opposite of a dud, you’ll get the benefit of that.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
Based on what?
Just make your point. You think it’s appropriately valued or undervalued, right?
Personally I think the valuation is detached from the company itself. In theory Tesla's valuation is too high, but it doesn't seem to be coming down any time soon. Plus there seems to be ways to manipulate stock prices when you control such a highly valued company, to the extent that the stock price reflects actions taken in the stock market more than the underlying assets and balance sheets.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#39Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#40So I don't fundamentally care if SpaceX is overvalued or not. Like, that's on you for whatever you want to invest in or not.
What I object to is all the rule changes by NASDAQ to essentially fix the IPO so massive pension funds and index funds are forced to invest in it. There have been multiple submissions about this but in short small floats are normally prohibited for index inclusion (not anymore), the trading days required for price discovery have been dropped to almost zero, the voting share structure would be an issue, the insider lockouts have been fixed and on it goes.
There should be extra scrutiny for a trillion dollar company.
SpaceX does have the Falcon 9, which is the completely dominant launch platform and first-stage reusability gives it an almost unbeatable advantage. Starlink has a lot of potential if satellite handsets can get small and cheap enough to compete with 5G effectively. Obital data centers are bullshit. Starship is going to be a significant drain on finances and the program as a whole faces significant headwinds.
The big problem is xAI. It's a significant drain on SpaceX (costing allegedly $1B+/month). SpaceX would be a better company without it. But it's only there to rescue Elon from his disastrous Twitter purchase and the xAI investors from Elon's first bailout (of himself).
There's almost no point in trying to figure out what a valuation should be because in many cases, nobody cares. Tesla is the posterchild for that.