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Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

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Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#31

Post by scns »

oblio wrote: post #23
Tade0 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully contr…

In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same wit…

Nokias phone business was destroyed by that manager they brought in from Microsoft. He held a speech where he called the company "a burning platform" on which they are standing.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/noki...

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#32

Post by FirmwareBurner »

oblio wrote: post #23
Tade0 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully contr…

In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same wit…

To be fair, only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out, same as with Motorola, but their enterprise/network-infrastructure businesses from Nokia, Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel still exists, and Sagem is still in the military business (as part of Thales).

However, the big issue is that those companies don't see much growth or sensible profit margins anymore compared to what US tech companies are raking in, fact reflected in their sweatshop salaries as well (I interviewed for Nokia and Ericsson a few years back).

In a sad way they're a direct reflection of the EU economy: stagnation and lack of future prospects. Yes I know of ASML and German mittle-stand but they alone can't competitively support the entire EU economy the same way US tech companies do.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#33

Post by dharmab »

londons_explore wrote: post #10
dotancohen wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I live electricity prices are about 1/8 the price per kilometer compared to gasoline. And I have rooftop solar, so for me it's even better. And I have not had to suffer a gas station in over a year - that in itself would be worth it even if not for the cost per kilometer. Not to mention no oil or filter to change, no plugs or coil packs to go bad, no catalytic converters to steal...

> no catalytic converters to steal.. I predict that within 10 years gangs will start stealing EV batteries. With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car. Then take it away and connect it to the grid as stationary storage and earn a few thousand dollars a year in balancing fees.

> With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car.

No, you cannot. Look up SuperFastMatt's video about the construction and layout of the Tesla battery he had to "chop up" for this custom build.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#34

Post by epolanski »

Tade0 wrote: post #19
epolanski wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan its…

You're completely ignoring China in this picture, which is by far the largest market for cars and where EVs already reached 22% market share last year. There's already a price war going on there, so the question isn't how long western manufacturers will be able to produce combustion cars, but will they survive the deluge of competitively priced Chinese EVs. The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully contr…

Just because someone else has a different take on the market it doesn't mean that he's wrong.

I didn't ignore China, or US, I stated that on average most cars in the world sold globally will still be ICE-powered for a long time to come due to electricity constraints (and quite high EV costs that aren't gonna fall anytime soon). This is especially true about Japan which the comment was speaking of.

> The solar panel market did not and is now almost fully controlled by China.

Another take that misses the forest for the trees: China controls large parts of manufacturing globally regardless of sector, that's true for advanced electronics (80% of the components and assembly of your Apple stuff is made there) to the toys you buy your kids to the apparel you wear (e.g. 70% of Nike apparel is produced in China).

They have low labor cost, insanely good infrastructure and logistics, cheap energy and weak labor rights. You're not gonna outcompete them on manufacturing.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#35

Post by dharmab »

cf141q5325 wrote: post #30
londons_explore wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no catalytic converters to steal.. I predict that within 10 years gangs will start stealing EV batteries. With a grinder, trolley and 5 minutes you could remove one from a car. Then take it away and connect it to the grid as stationary storage and earn a few thousand dollars a year in balancing fees.

I am honesty surprised to not already see massive theft with bike and scooter batteries.

Thieves currently make more money stealing entire sport and touring motorcycles, or lightweight high end bicycles.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#36

Post by epolanski »

KingOfCoders wrote: post #15
epolanski wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan its…

How is Germany "unable to cope with the current electricity demand"? People use solar power to power their EVs here (We have solar power but no car).

That's a cherry picked stat, isn't it?

Your country is also increasing its coal output and the output of energy produced by coal in double digits and out wiping villages such as Lutzerah to create some of the biggest coal mines in the world.

Yes, you are energy starved too.

Also, how there's no EVs? From all WV brands including Skoda to luxury makers from Mercedes to Porsche, *all* of your automakers have multiple EVs sitting in your dealerships.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#37

Post by theshrike79 »

epolanski wrote: post #13
bamboozled wrote: post #3

Meanwhile in Japan I can't buy a 4WD mini van that's fully electric, one of the most common petrol car form factors in Japan. They can't even do the basics in their own home market. Good luck Toyota, you will need it.

I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan its…

Not just a weird mix of 50/60Hz they also have a single phase grid that's definitely not capable of home-charging EVs.

America is pretty bad, but at least you have split-phase.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#38

Post by rsynnott »

scarygliders wrote: post #5
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, look, this isn't complicated. Here's some kind-opinion, kinda-fact points: 1) Tesla is making vehicles with EV drivetrains at cost parity or less than an ICE car (depends on the actual reporting on Tesla's per-car margin accuracy). This number is somewhere around $100/kwhr at the pack level. 2) EV drivetrain cost has been steadily falling at nonlinear rates for a decade, with very much runway. 3) CATL and other b…

You can have all the best and lovely EV tech. ever, but until and unless electricity prices come down, and "filling up" an EV with stored energy is cheaper than filling up an ICE or hybrid vehicle, AND you get the same range in an EV that you can with an ICE vehicle, then EV's - currently - aren't a rational and wise choice for the average consumer. Electricity prices are going through the roof here in the UK, which…

If you’re on the national grid, this simply isn’t the case. If you’re, like, the only resident of a remote island with no grid connection and run your own diesel generator, then perhaps not, but you are the edgiest of edge cases. (Also you probably don’t have that much use for a car, such an island being unlikely to have a car ferry service).

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#39

Post by pbmonster »

KingOfCoders wrote: post #15
epolanski wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think yours is a very blind take. The Japanese auto industry deliberately decided to put the emphasis on hybrid technologies before EVs. - the overwhelming amount of the world does not and will not have infrastructure to support that many EVs for quite some time. Energy-starved countries such as most of Europe bar some like Scotland or Norway are already unable to cope with the current electricity demand. Japan its…

How is Germany "unable to cope with the current electricity demand"? People use solar power to power their EVs here (We have solar power but no car).

Electricity is over 30 ct/kWh in Germany, and short-term, they will be unable to offer it much cheaper. Does that mean black-outs and people not getting electricity? No, but at those prices, heavy industry like steel mills and aluminum foundries will have to move abroad.

And it won't get better with the numbers of EVs on the roads going up. Germany burns around 50M tons of gasoline per year. If you want to replace that with electricity, you need to install tens of gigawatts of additional powerplant capacity - and that's not "peak capacity" renewable plants advertise. Real, 24h-capacity.

And that's not looking good, either. Thanks to all the NIMBYs, the actual number of megawatt turbines being built is shameful.

Re: Toyota to triple EV output as it chases Tesla, BYD

#40

Post by oblio »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #32
oblio wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion what will happen is old fashioned protectionism. Western governments are still kind of dumb but they're wisening up. The US for example does it through incentives: if the car AND the batteries have been built in the US, the car is cheaper. Just the car was built in the US? Lower subsidy, more expensive car. Nothing built in the US? 0 subsidy, much more expensive car. The EU will probably do the same wit…

To be fair, only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out, same as with Motorola, but their enterprise/network-infrastructure businesses from Nokia, Siemens, Ericsson, Alcatel still exists, and Sagem is still in the military business (as part of Thales). However, the big issue is that those companies don't see much growth or sensible profit margins anymore compared to what US tech companies…

> only the consumer facing operations of those brands have been wiped out

So, like 90% of the income and profits for a hardware company?

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