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Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

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Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#31

Post by mjevans »

jo6gwb wrote: post #15

I'm not sure why they don't explicitly write in the report that the driver may have been trapped in the back seat, and was unable to locate or use the mechanical release to escape. While that wouldn't be a contributing factor to the wreck, it would be a contributing factor the the driver's death, and important for Tesla and their passengers to know about. The report states: The frontal impact with the tree resulted i…

In this case, failing safe should probably be to just release the locking latches shortly after the loss of power.

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#32

Post by jcranmer »

Smoosh wrote: post #27
anonporridge wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This was the one where the media reported that because nobody was found in the front seat it must have been the fault of the self-driving feature. And the fact that this was media disinformation won't matter much, because the damage to the Tesla brand and the idea of self driving cars in the public's collective consciousness has already been done, and won't easily be undone by these newly revealed facts. "A lie mak…

Conspiracy theory: Autonomous driving is being undermined by traditional car companies who see that if it is successful, it would hugely change personal transportation and greatly reduce total sales of vehicles.

> greatly reduce total sales of vehicles.

This is one of those things that always struck me as a weird, poor argument... how is autonomous driving supposed to suddenly make everyone want to stop owning their cars and use taxis instead?

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#33

Post by ajross »

gamblor956 wrote: post #28
ajross wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worth pointing out that the most recent Tesla crash freakout was similarly thinly sourced. We have one line in a police report saying AP was in use, and no statements from the driver nor telemetry from the vehicle. And that was enough to drive thousand-comment threads right here on HN. (And yeah, I'm on record saying that it's extremely unlikely autopilot commanded the lane change in that Bay Bridge accident. It just…

The NHTSA is on record as saying FSD was "definitely" engaged during the recent Bay Bridge accident in the tunnel. And notably, Musk did not chime in to blame the driver like he always does when the driver is at fault, which is very strong circumstantial evidence that FSD was engaged.

No, they aren't "on record". Go find the cite. One paper had a source saying that it was active within 30 seconds of the collision (which is like 3x longer than the time shown on the video we have).

Look, the clearly most likely scenario here is that the driver got confused, overrode the AP, and then failed to maintain awareness as they commanded the sudden lane change. Obviously that's not what people want to hear, but it's the best explanation. I've pulled AP out and changed lanes manually, probably rapidly, on a bunch of occasions. All it takes is to do that when not paying attention...

All your logic was equally applicable to the accident in the linked article, and it was all wrong there too. (Also... Musk didn't "blame the driver" in the linked case? Not sure what you're citing. Tesla generally doesn't say anything about their customers' accidents, for some very obvious reasons.)

Just wait. All I'm telling you is that I drive with this product every day and I'm not seeing FSD behavior in that video. If it turns out I'm wrong then I'll sheepishly admit it. But I know which direction the spin runs and my BS detector is pretty good.

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#34

Post by aaron695 »

Discussion at the time (April/May 2021), how do the comments of HN's finest stack up? -

Two people killed in fiery Tesla crash with no one driving https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26852399 736 comments

NTSB: Tesla Model S in Crash Couldn't Have Been Using Autopilot - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27112010 199 comments

Cops “almost 99.9% sure” Tesla had no one at the wheel before deadly crash https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26871001 53 comments

No one was in driver’s seat in fatal Tesla crash https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26866754 85 comments

Texas police to demand Tesla crash data as Musk denies autopilot use https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26869962 18 comments

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#35

Post by bigmattystyles »

dboreham wrote: post #20
bena wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't "media disinformation", it was the local constable and his accident investigators being wrong. https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/tesla-spring-crash-f... And even in that article, there's an addendum a couple of months later stating that a person was seen getting in the driver's seat and that the NTSB reenactment wasn't able to engage the autosteering when trying to replicate the crash. I don't know wh…

> it was the local constable and his accident investigators being wrong Possibly it's the media's job to question when law enforcement comments seem implausible?

True, but are you questioning the NTSB as well?

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#36

Post by ajross »

BoorishBears wrote: post #25
ajross wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a system that regresses from basic LKA that was shipping in the mid 2000s in terms of safety Cite? Everyone likes to throw around the word "safety" as a qualitative thing, but the only data we have points to the system being extremely safe.

Mid 2000s LKA was passive systems in the US market: they were backups that vibrated the seat or steering wheel, or provided mild outputs. That meant they couldn't actively put the driver into danger, making them inherently safer than a system that will gladly drive onto a sidewalk Now what about active systems from back then? Almost 20 years ago Lexus had learned the lessons that Tesla kicked and resisted until about…

Are you saying a Lexus has never had a driver fatality from inattention? That seems ridiculous. What are you actually claiming here? If Lexus is safer than Tesla that seems like something someone can measure. Have they?

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#37

Post by tux2bsd »

shadowgovt wrote: post #18
jo6gwb wrote: post #15

I'm not sure why they don't explicitly write in the report that the driver may have been trapped in the back seat, and was unable to locate or use the mechanical release to escape. While that wouldn't be a contributing factor to the wreck, it would be a contributing factor the the driver's death, and important for Tesla and their passengers to know about. The report states: The frontal impact with the tree resulted i…

I don't think they have sufficient evidence one way or the other to draw that conclusion. The driver's cause of death was BFT with thermal damage and smoke inhalation; I don't know they have reason to believe he was conscious and trying to escape the vehicle.

[dead]

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#38

Post by aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA »

ajross wrote: post #33
gamblor956 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The NHTSA is on record as saying FSD was "definitely" engaged during the recent Bay Bridge accident in the tunnel. And notably, Musk did not chime in to blame the driver like he always does when the driver is at fault, which is very strong circumstantial evidence that FSD was engaged.

No, they aren't "on record". Go find the cite. One paper had a source saying that it was active within 30 seconds of the collision (which is like 3x longer than the time shown on the video we have). Look, the clearly most likely scenario here is that the driver got confused, overrode the AP, and then failed to maintain awareness as they commanded the sudden lane change. Obviously that's not what people want to hear,…

> it was active within 30 seconds of the collision (which is like 3x longer than the time shown on the video

Merely stating it was active _within_ 30 seconds, that doesn’t mean it was deactivated at the 30 second mark. Or am I missing something?

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#39

Post by epgui »

jcranmer wrote: post #32
Smoosh wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conspiracy theory: Autonomous driving is being undermined by traditional car companies who see that if it is successful, it would hugely change personal transportation and greatly reduce total sales of vehicles.

> greatly reduce total sales of vehicles. This is one of those things that always struck me as a weird, poor argument... how is autonomous driving supposed to suddenly make everyone want to stop owning their cars and use taxis instead?

When you own a car, you typically only use it a small percentage of the day (it certainly is true of the average owner). When you're offering a ride service, that one car is being utilized a much higher proportion of the day.

Ignoring the driver, taxi/ride-hail/autonomous-ride services are much more efficient uses of a vehicle over time. (And this is just a side note, but obviously if you don't have to pay for a human driver, you make the cost of operating the vehicle much lower per kilometre, and then it becomes much more attractive, from a purely financial POV, for most people than owning their own vehicle.)

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#40

Post by mwint »

jcranmer wrote: post #32
Smoosh wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conspiracy theory: Autonomous driving is being undermined by traditional car companies who see that if it is successful, it would hugely change personal transportation and greatly reduce total sales of vehicles.

> greatly reduce total sales of vehicles. This is one of those things that always struck me as a weird, poor argument... how is autonomous driving supposed to suddenly make everyone want to stop owning their cars and use taxis instead?

Consider this: our family has three cars for four people. We often have all three in different places, but rarely are all three _being driven_ at the same time. If a car could ferry itself autonomously between destinations, it’s a huge gain for logistical flexibility and we could probably get away with two or even one car.
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