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What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

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Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#31

Post by fny »

azlyrics wrote: post #25
datalopers wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Broad markets will crash and LPs will ask for capital back. The overhang will drop without requiring investment.

checkout the citrix bond situation. unable to raise targeted goal through issuing corporate yields. its really scary we are seeing corporate bond yields spiking and liquidity drying up. if a legitimate large corporation is having trouble raising money, its a huge red flag.

Citrix in bond trouble? Time to start buying corporate bonds. Edit: Yup, Apollo and Elliott bought in huge.

Wow, debt looks super attractive.

Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#32

Post by phpthrowaway99 »

fullshark wrote: post #30
phpthrowaway99 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the previous crash, even viable companies that were growing and made sense were brought close to crisis. Currently Nikola motors is worth a few billion. In a crash they'd be dead.

Your attitude isn't unique, I'd describe it as "It's not a crash until the people/companies I consider fraudulent get destroyed." I hear it about some crypto investors in particular. There's a lot of people who basically consider recessions cosmic justice and want a cleansing fire to reign down on certain entities/people they despise. I propose: that's not what a recession/crash is.

I would assume in a real crash, especially if we're comparing it to the 2000s tech crash, someone must get destroyed. I personally think companies that can't even make a car drive for a demo, something most at home diy ev hobby builders can do, and also lie about it, probably would go first in a crash.

You propose that's not what a crash is. What is it then? And when can we say it's as severe as the early 2000s crash?

Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#33

Post by djbusby »

fny wrote: post #31
azlyrics wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

checkout the citrix bond situation. unable to raise targeted goal through issuing corporate yields. its really scary we are seeing corporate bond yields spiking and liquidity drying up. if a legitimate large corporation is having trouble raising money, its a huge red flag.

Citrix in bond trouble? Time to start buying corporate bonds. Edit: Yup, Apollo and Elliott bought in huge. Wow, debt looks super attractive.

Can you two (@azlyrics, @fny) expand on this - or point to a topical article?

When I first saw this @azlyrics comment was dead and I'm wondering what the fuzz is.

Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#34

Post by djbusby »

vsareto wrote: post #21
yuan43 wrote: post #3

> There is a LOT of money still sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. And it WILL be deployed, that’s what investors do. Reminds me of the saying: "Venture Capital starts with too many good ideas chasing too little money, and ends with too much money chasing too few good ideas."

The saying might just be an observation, but I'm not sure what else people should be saying about VC. VC matches people-with-ideas to money. Have they ever advertised being anything else (while sober)?

My VC friends use the words Talent when sober but keep repeating (mumbling) Traction and Execution after a few pints. Vino Veritas?

Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#35

Post by debacle »

anthlax wrote: post #24
time_to_smile wrote: post #10

"Post" crash? If you think what we've seen is the crash you have no idea what's coming.

Ah! It seems your crystal ball is working better than mine. Could you tell me how you know a bigger crash is coming?

The ad-supported giants are barely treading water while they absolutely plaster their platforms with ads. I doubt that will sustain them through the next quarter, which is usually the biggest quarter for retail consumers.

Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#36

Post by sennraf »

version_five wrote: post #20

The recent (since the 80s) history of financial ups and downs has been - savings and loan - junk bond - dot com / financial engineering (Enron) - mortgage backed securities - VC Basically, money chases outsized returns, some new thing emerges to satisfy the demand, it becomes effectively a ponzi / house of cards, it falls apart, we shift to the next thing. It's impossible to predict when and what will happen of cours…

Don’t forget private equity: (Private equity may become a ‘pyramid scheme’, warns Danish pension fund - paywalled) https://www.ft.com/content/f480a99c-4c7b-4208-b9dd-ef2010325...

Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#37

Post by MuffinFlavored »

version_five wrote: post #20

The recent (since the 80s) history of financial ups and downs has been - savings and loan - junk bond - dot com / financial engineering (Enron) - mortgage backed securities - VC Basically, money chases outsized returns, some new thing emerges to satisfy the demand, it becomes effectively a ponzi / house of cards, it falls apart, we shift to the next thing. It's impossible to predict when and what will happen of cours…

crypto?

Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#38

Post by MuffinFlavored »

syntaxing wrote: post #12
time_to_smile wrote: post #10

"Post" crash? If you think what we've seen is the crash you have no idea what's coming.

Genuinely curious what you think crash means. 2021 definitely inflated our stock market way too much but we're definitely within reasonable corrected zone IMO. What should we expect as a crash? Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there?

i’m seeing 2007 -> 2009 44% drawdown+

Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#39

Post by devoutsalsa »

Apocryphon wrote: post #27
version_five wrote: post #20

The recent (since the 80s) history of financial ups and downs has been - savings and loan - junk bond - dot com / financial engineering (Enron) - mortgage backed securities - VC Basically, money chases outsized returns, some new thing emerges to satisfy the demand, it becomes effectively a ponzi / house of cards, it falls apart, we shift to the next thing. It's impossible to predict when and what will happen of cours…

Margin Call takes place in 2008, but its depiction of how the investors respond to a crisis is evergreen.

I love that movie. It’s my favorite financial drama. I have sympathy & contempt for nearly everyone in that movie.

Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

#40

Post by CSMastermind »

version_five wrote: post #20

The recent (since the 80s) history of financial ups and downs has been - savings and loan - junk bond - dot com / financial engineering (Enron) - mortgage backed securities - VC Basically, money chases outsized returns, some new thing emerges to satisfy the demand, it becomes effectively a ponzi / house of cards, it falls apart, we shift to the next thing. It's impossible to predict when and what will happen of cours…

I'd argue that crypto fits that bill more than VC.
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