Probably less gullible than before
What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
11–20 of 102 posts
Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
#12"Post" crash? If you think what we've seen is the crash you have no idea what's coming.
Genuinely curious what you think crash means. 2021 definitely inflated our stock market way too much but we're definitely within reasonable corrected zone IMO. What should we expect as a crash? Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there?
Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
#13"Post" crash? If you think what we've seen is the crash you have no idea what's coming.
Bluntly: neither do you and doomerism is unhelpful.
Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
#14Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
#15"Post" crash? If you think what we've seen is the crash you have no idea what's coming.
Genuinely curious what you think crash means. 2021 definitely inflated our stock market way too much but we're definitely within reasonable corrected zone IMO. What should we expect as a crash? Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there?
In the previous crash, even viable companies that were growing and made sense were brought close to crisis.
Currently Nikola motors is worth a few billion. In a crash they'd be dead.
Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
Genuinely curious what you think crash means. 2021 definitely inflated our stock market way too much but we're definitely within reasonable corrected zone IMO. What should we expect as a crash? Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there?
In the previous crash, even viable companies that were growing and made sense were brought close to crisis. Currently Nikola motors is worth a few billion. In a crash they'd be dead.
That just means the market is illogical though, does not mean a crash must mean all of sudden all investors are logical? As quoted by the famous Keynes, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” It’s like meme stocks like AMC/APE and GME. Does any of it make sense to me? Nope. Are people making and losing a ton of money? Sure. Is it a good indication of US economy health or dare I say, US stock market health? Really hard to say.
Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
#17"Post" crash? If you think what we've seen is the crash you have no idea what's coming.
Genuinely curious what you think crash means. 2021 definitely inflated our stock market way too much but we're definitely within reasonable corrected zone IMO. What should we expect as a crash? Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there?
Going in the other direction, we’re 11% above the pre-COVID high for the S&P. And that’s with $6+ trillion dollars having been pumped into the economy. There’s plenty of crash and plenty of inflation left in the pipes.
Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
#18You have hedge funds like Tiger Global who are now leading/investing in early stage rounds. Anyone with capital can now play “VC”.
Ah yes the "dumb money"
Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
Genuinely curious what you think crash means. 2021 definitely inflated our stock market way too much but we're definitely within reasonable corrected zone IMO. What should we expect as a crash? Even with the Great recession, we're looking at a 27% drawdown so we're about halfway there?
Going in the other direction, we’re 11% above the pre-COVID high for the S&P. And that’s with $6+ trillion dollars having been pumped into the economy. There’s plenty of crash and plenty of inflation left in the pipes.
Would you consider it a crash if S&P was just flat for a decade?
Re: What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?
#20The recent (since the 80s) history of financial ups and downs has been
- savings and loan
- junk bond
- dot com / financial engineering (Enron)
- mortgage backed securities
- VC
Basically, money chases outsized returns, some new thing emerges to satisfy the demand, it becomes effectively a ponzi / house of cards, it falls apart, we shift to the next thing. It's impossible to predict when and what will happen of course, it will be interesting to read retrospectively about what's happening with VC as we have with the rest:
Barbarians at the gate / Den of Thieves
Smartest Guys in the Room
The Big Short
(Bad Blood is partway there but Theranos wasnt a turning point like the others)