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HP to Keep PC Division

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Re: HP to Keep PC Division

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlikely. Besides the fact that almost no one actually has any faith in it as a platform due to the way HP dropped it, even if they did do a 180, people would still have shaken confidence. Not to mention that there are currently no currently officially selling WebOS devices (except for a few straggling phones in the discount bin), nor plans for new ones. And, when your competitors are Android, WP7, and iOS, getting o…

I'm sure you could find dozens of articles from 1996-1998 saying similar things about Apple, but imagine how different the world would be if Jobs listened to them and just declared Apple "dead" and didn't return to the company. WebOS is a great platform and it's not too late to save, but it needs a better company than HP to breathe new life into it. In my opinion, it's much better than iOS for tablets and larger devi…

The big difference here was that the Mac had been around for ten years, had a big user base (even if small relative to windows) and sustainable compelling advantages over its competitors (best versions of most graphics apps, only versions of some, many unique media apps (e.g avid, protools), real multiple monitor support, system level color management). If WebOS had ten years of history and a bunch of industry leading apps on it the analogy might be stronger.

Re: HP to Keep PC Division

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HP has clearly shown they are not good caretakers of WebOS. They best thing they could do is sell it off to someone who could make better use of it. Amazon? Although with the launch of the Fire, they're pretty much stuck on Android now...

I don't see why they're stuck on Android. The Android part is pretty hidden and if Amazon has shown an ability to do anything, it's to make wholesale changes without burning the place down. They also can sit on a property until they are ready for it (see: Slow integration of Audible, Goodreads). Indeed, it's possible they would like to get off Android to avoid being beholden to Google.

What would Amazon gain from purchasing webOS from HP? I don't see much webOS value for Amazon except Palm patents (to defend the Kindle Fire from Apple patent attacks). Amazon has invested in their own Android App Market and then the Kindle Fire. They have the talent and money to support their own fork of Android (which seems like a possibility) if Google were to stop open-sourcing Android.

Re: HP to Keep PC Division

#33
post #20

Understanding HP's dilemma is as simple as looking at the comps. HP is trading at 6.5x P/E currently. Yet HP's consulting business should be worth more separate (IBM at 14x, Accenture at 18x) And HP's hardware business should be worth more separate (compare Toshiba at 12x, Apple at 15x, even Dell at 9x) As a result I understand why they allowed Apotheker to do what he did. Cut ONCE, bleed heavily and launch two stron…

With all due respect, "worth more separate" is a destructive business philosophy. Unless your line of business is buying up other companies, building up value, and spinning them off.

Be that as it may, the differences between IBM and HP are stark in this instance. I-B-M: it stands for International Business Machines. Services to industry are their roots, and those roots run deep. Whether in the form of census punchcards in the 1890s, or ballistics calculations for the military, or the creation of the SABRE booking system, or the creation of relational databases... the list goes on and on and on, but the point is that IBM has never strayed from its roots. It is a business services company.

Upon hitting a rough patch in the early nineties, IBM took radical steps to revive its profits; one of these steps was the introduction and promotion of the business-oriented Thinkpad brand, which was a huge success and helped bring the firm back to health. But that did not make IBM into a PC company any more than the success of the XBox makes Microsoft a gaming company.

After nurturing the brand and working gradually over time with a Chinese supplier to offshore production, the last step (at that point almost a formality) was taken and the brand "Thinkpad" was transitioned to Lenovo ownership. IBM continues to be a company providing services to government and industry, as it has since its founding.

HP, on the other hand, is a company whose roots are in technical instrumentation and excellence in test equipment. Over time, this resulted in innovations such as the HP 9100A, the familiar tried-and-true HP calculator line, its superb printers, and so on... all outgrowths of HP's core roots in engineering and instrumentation.

The spinoff of Agilent was like HP cutting off its right arm. To add insult to injury, the company was forced to digest the Compaq acquisition at the same time. Still, the core mission of creating excellent electronic machines survived and HP is in a dominant position when it comes to providing reliable hardware in the form of computers, servers, printers from laserjets to industrial presses, networking, etc.

With that as a basis, the move into consulting services and enterprise software makes sense, but a move as unforgivably idiotic as removing the PC business would cut the very legs out from under the business, regardless of what some P/E number on a spreadsheet says. Why would an enterprise come to HP for consulting when it cannot provide a package of desktops, servers, and software? That is HP's mission as it is configured now, with Agilent gone its separate way. It makes sense to push aggressively into new territory, but not to destroy the foundation of the business at the same time.

Apotheker brought no innovative thinking to HP; he merely sought to remake the company in his image and transform it into the SAP that not even SAP would let him create. Whether or not that vision, taken in the abstract, is one worth pursuing is debatable to begin with-- but hacking HP into bits to force it to fit that vision is madness, and the plummeting stock price that you seem to measure value by reflected the market's view of this insanity.

Why is there any need to "bleed heavily"? The PC division is the foundation of the entire edifice. It may not be sexy and it may not fit your metrics-based notion of company value, but it holds up the business and it is number 1 in the world and profitable. That is a strength to leverage, not a "drag".

HP is finally in a position to do exactly what Meg Whitman said it needs to do today: focus on excellence. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/d6a4b220-00d8-11e1-930b-00144feabd...

Re: HP to Keep PC Division

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lawsuits for what?

For not performing due diligence when discussing the company's strategy with the new CEO, leading to about two years of fucking around (after a decade of fucking around) and cratering the company's value to the shareholders.

Unfortunately, the board is close to dysfunctional. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/22/us-hp-board-insigh... http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/22/business/voting-to-hire-a-...

Re: HP to Keep PC Division

#35
post #20

Understanding HP's dilemma is as simple as looking at the comps. HP is trading at 6.5x P/E currently. Yet HP's consulting business should be worth more separate (IBM at 14x, Accenture at 18x) And HP's hardware business should be worth more separate (compare Toshiba at 12x, Apple at 15x, even Dell at 9x) As a result I understand why they allowed Apotheker to do what he did. Cut ONCE, bleed heavily and launch two stron…

Splitting off HP's hardware business doesn't suddenly make it worth the same as Apple's That's like claiming if it spun off it's discount coupon business it would be worth the same as groupon.

He did provide PE ratios for competitors as well, and HP is the largest PC maker. He isn't valuing them the same as Apple, just that the PE ratio should be similar.

Re: HP to Keep PC Division

#36
post #8

Wow. What is going on there? At first I thought Apotheker was hired to complete some "unpopular" tasks, and then a new CEO could start over. But it seems like the board was completely asleep while Apotheker made his decisions. I am looking forward to some massive lawsuits brought against these people. Apotheker probably was the most clever guy in this, and knew that he could make a quick 20 million even though he wou…

I suddenly find myself wondering if someone wanted the stock price to crater, to make a takeover or mega-buy-in cheaper.

Interesting theory, and with the history of this HP board, this is actually a very minor possibility.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hewlett-Packard_spying_scandal

You've made me wonder if the quality of the algorithms used for trading make it near impossible for the SEC to track these sort of criminal activities.

Re: HP to Keep PC Division

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Splitting off HP's hardware business doesn't suddenly make it worth the same as Apple's That's like claiming if it spun off it's discount coupon business it would be worth the same as groupon.

He did provide PE ratios for competitors as well, and HP is the largest PC maker. He isn't valuing them the same as Apple, just that the PE ratio should be similar.

The line of reasoning applied here escapes me. In what way are the hardware and consulting business lines distractions to one another? It's like saying a car company's manufacturing business is going to get distracted by the company racing team, because it's possible to draw up different P/E ratios for the two. This overlooks the fundamental and inextricably interlinked business relationships between the two. And it casts aside all kinds of follow-on benefits, such as market & mind share, the halo effect, cross-pollination of new business ideas and seeding of innovation.

Re: HP to Keep PC Division

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why they're stuck on Android. The Android part is pretty hidden and if Amazon has shown an ability to do anything, it's to make wholesale changes without burning the place down. They also can sit on a property until they are ready for it (see: Slow integration of Audible, Goodreads). Indeed, it's possible they would like to get off Android to avoid being beholden to Google.

What would Amazon gain from purchasing webOS from HP? I don't see much webOS value for Amazon except Palm patents (to defend the Kindle Fire from Apple patent attacks). Amazon has invested in their own Android App Market and then the Kindle Fire. They have the talent and money to support their own fork of Android (which seems like a possibility) if Google were to stop open-sourcing Android.

Few days on, but I see it similar to how Google felt the need to make Chrome rather than to simply rely on Firefox. If you're selling a property (in this case web services and advertising), wouldn't you want to control every aspect of how that property is viewed? Google wanted to have full control over how users saw their product, so they can make a browser and fully support that browser with all the bells and whistles their product can conceivably offer through that platform. Amazon is the same way. Their device is secondary to the content they are offering, so why not be able to tailor that device fully to the content. The only way you can ever truly make that a reality is if you have your own platform.

Of course, even if this is all wrong, it’s not like WebOS will cost that much money. It’s like Amazon picking up a book at the bookstore, it looks interesting, you probably won’t ever read it, but it looks pretty and doesn’t take up space and you can send it off to the thrift store in a couple of years.

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