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Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

arstechnica.com

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Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#31

Post by skykooler »

BurningFrog wrote: post #28
Retric wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NERVA or other Nuclear thermal rockets are actually fairly low ISP compared to ION drives. A solar panel + inert gas gets you anywhere in the solar system. The real issue is what’s the point? The economics of asteroid mining gets much worse if you consider bringing vast quantities of say gold back to earth would tank the value of gold.

Gold is a special case, but tanking the price of expensive metals is exactly the point of asteroid mining. If prices for nickel, iron, copper, platinum, etc were cut by 99%, it would raise human living standards ENORMOUSLY.

It would be nice if people stopped stealing catalytic converters because the plantinum, palladium etc were no longer worth the effort.

Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#32

Post by BurningFrog »

Retric wrote: post #29
BurningFrog wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is a special case, but tanking the price of expensive metals is exactly the point of asteroid mining. If prices for nickel, iron, copper, platinum, etc were cut by 99%, it would raise human living standards ENORMOUSLY.

We can significantly expand mining of common elements like copper and iron, the demand simply isn’t there. Over 5% of earths crust is iron, aluminum is over 8%, we really aren’t running out of them. Amos stuff is more rare, but for scale roughly 700 million metric tons of copper has been mined out of 2800 million tons of copper discovered in economically viable concentrations. With perhaps another 3500 million metric…

Demand isn't there at current prices.

Lower prices, and demand will rise!

Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#33

Post by BurningFrog »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #10
le-mark wrote: post #2

So long as humanity is limited to throwing high velocity gas oot the back of rockets to get around the solar system, we’ll be limited by access to volatile material. Spacex is betting on CH4 and oxygen, nuclear rocket designs (NERVA) used hydrogen, although they could use pretty much anything. Earth is in a peculiar position such that the delta V of getting to orbit will also get you to anywhere else in the solar sys…

There are alternate sources of propellant in the solar system. Lifting it out of Earths gravity well is relatively expensive. But once you have enough of it, you could start transporting propellant from elsewhere in the solar system and start stockpiling it in strategic orbits around various objects in the solar system. Once you can do that, you'd minimize the launch weight from earth to be able to get to a LEO fueli…

My big fear with asteroid mining is that if you can move an asteroid to Earth orbit, you can also smash it into any capital city or military base on Earth.

Which means that this capability is a weapon more powerful than even nuclear missiles!

I don't think the world will let this be run on the honor system. So I expect space travel to become extremely tightly controlled once we get close to this tech level.

Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#34

Post by qchris »

jpm_sd wrote: post #11
Jyaif wrote: post #6

They are 100% at the mercy of SpaceX accepting their payloads. If SpaceX decides to create an in-house competitor, they are purely and simply screwed. And SpaceX will create an in-house competitor if Impulse Space is profitable. So they are also betting on either anti-monopoly legislation being set-up (SpaceX is a monopoly because no other launcher can match their pricing), or that a SpaceX competitor emerges (which…

Or they're just hoping to be acquired by SpaceX, like Swarm Technologies?

It still frustrates me that Swarm was basically given a free pass after their illegal satellite deployments[1]. They broke both the law and good cultural norms around space tech in a meaningful way, barely got a slap on the wrist, and then ended up being acquired for quite a good amount of money. The FCC commissioner even stated that "The size of the penalty imposed is probably not significant enough to deter future behavior."

Move fast and break things shouldn't have been acceptable for an organization operating in this area, and that Swarm had no meaningful repercussions for doing so should be a black mark on the org and the executive running it for a long time. I'm certainly hoping others don't use their model as a blueprint.

[1] https://spacenews.com/fcc-fines-swarm-900000-for-unauthorize...

Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#35

Post by Retric »

BurningFrog wrote: post #32
Retric wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can significantly expand mining of common elements like copper and iron, the demand simply isn’t there. Over 5% of earths crust is iron, aluminum is over 8%, we really aren’t running out of them. Amos stuff is more rare, but for scale roughly 700 million metric tons of copper has been mined out of 2800 million tons of copper discovered in economically viable concentrations. With perhaps another 3500 million metric…

Demand isn't there at current prices . Lower prices, and demand will rise!

Metal prices rise and fall quite a bit. They have fairly inelastic demand because raw material prices are a small fraction of total costs. A skyscraper may need a lot of steel but in total it’s still a small fraction of total costs. Even just making steel from iron is rather expensive.

A great deal of copper is used in new construction, but the number of outlets in the average new home isn’t going up because raw copper is suddenly 1/3 the price.

Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#36

Post by pjscott »

mrfusion wrote: post #23

Any idea what technology this might use for propulsion?

From what little they've said, it's a pretty safe bet that their propellant mix is:

* Safer to handle than traditional hypergolics, which are crazy toxic and therefore difficult and expensive to work with. (This is what they mean when they say that the propellant is "green".)

* Something that doesn't require cryogenic storage. That stuff is great for launching from earth, but not great for storing longer-term in satellites. (And they will need to store it over a longer term in order to provide de-orbit, which they say they will.)

If I had to take a guess, I'd guess a hydroxylammonium nitrate monopropellant. It was tested in orbit by NASA a few years ago and apparently worked great:

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-comp...

Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#37

Post by tsimionescu »

Loughla wrote: post #21
Invictus0 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you mustn't be afraid to dream a little bigger darling. I can definitely imagine a mission to pluto and back.

A 20 year mission to Pluto would be unsuccessful without cryogenic or otherwise science-magical-sleep system. I cannot imagine a single set of humans who could spend 20 years together, without any way to leave the small space of a ship, and not absolutely lose their minds. That long of a trip means we just end up sending absolute lunatics and/or small pieces of chopped up lunatics after the inevitable murders.

Not to mention, it's extremely doubtful that a human body could survive anywhere close to 20 years in space.

Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#38

Post by JumpCrisscross »

bmitc wrote: post #18

Does anyone have some thoughts on where all the funding and market is coming from in this new private space industry? I've seen a ton of these companies popping up, and I'm not sure I quite understand where all the demand and money is coming from outside of government contracts. While space is always cool and "sexy", I've been wondering if there's some analog model that could work for ocean tech, particularly tech th…

> view the ocean as far more important to human understanding and survival than space

Funny enough, I always thought calling groups of coördinating satellites “constellations” belies their true complexity. They’re fleets. When you think of fleets of satellites in orbit, the need for ancillary services becomes obvious. (On your narrower point, we are seeing major breakthroughs in oceanography and maritime surveillance from these constellations.)

Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#39

Post by BurningFrog »

Retric wrote: post #35
BurningFrog wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand isn't there at current prices . Lower prices, and demand will rise!

Metal prices rise and fall quite a bit. They have fairly inelastic demand because raw material prices are a small fraction of total costs. A skyscraper may need a lot of steel but in total it’s still a small fraction of total costs. Even just making steel from iron is rather expensive. A great deal of copper is used in new construction, but the number of outlets in the average new home isn’t going up because raw copp…

I'm sure you're right about current trends.

I'm thinking/dreaming about a world where prices are orders of magnitudes lower. Is there some advantage to make tin cans out of palladium rather than tin? Then we can just do it because the metal cost is the same!

A bit of utopian fantasizing, sure. But even cutting end user prices in half should have important effects.

Re: Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

#40

Post by idiotsecant »

gondo wrote: post #25
bmitc wrote: post #18

Does anyone have some thoughts on where all the funding and market is coming from in this new private space industry? I've seen a ton of these companies popping up, and I'm not sure I quite understand where all the demand and money is coming from outside of government contracts. While space is always cool and "sexy", I've been wondering if there's some analog model that could work for ocean tech, particularly tech th…

Private internet satellites is going to be a big market. Russian space program collapsing for quite some time and only being escalated recently. SpaceX paving a way for profitable private space business.

Satellite internet seem to me to be a niche thing, at best. It's extremely 'cool' but in countries rich enough to buy satellite internet high speed wireless infrastructure is nearly ubiquitous. Countries without the cash to fund wireless infrastructure also don't have the cash to pay for satellite internet. On top of that some customers who might otherwise have the resources and the need live in autocratic countries that may not be entirely happy with internet that isn't entirely within their control. It seems like that basically limits your possible customers to western style democracies in under-served rural areas or a few outliers like maybe marine applications, etc.
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