The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust • Hacker News Board

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#31

Post by jrochkind1 » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:43 PM UTC

sqqqqrly wrote: post #21

thrown_22 wrote: post #7

I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went i…

So the "reason for doing this" was a conspiracy to discredit the left and Polosi, Schumer, Biden, etc are all conspirators? Blah!

I don't think it's actually a conspiracy or plan in that way, but Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden are definitely greatly concerned with discrediting the ideologies and plans of those further to the left than them.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#32

Post by giantg2 » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:44 PM UTC

thrown_22 wrote: post #7

I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went i…

Isn't increased unemployment the baby brother of UBI? If I remember correctly the right complained pretty heavily about both.

Even in states with left leaning politicians, most construction was shut down. There were people questioning why outdoor construction was shut down.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#33

Post by thrown_22 » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:44 PM UTC

sqqqqrly wrote: post #21

thrown_22 wrote: post #7

I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went i…

So the "reason for doing this" was a conspiracy to discredit the left and Polosi, Schumer, Biden, etc are all conspirators? Blah!

The policy also made them tens to hundreds of millions.

It's a conspiracy in the same way that looting a shop in the middle of a riot is a conspiracy.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#34

Post by pyrrhotech » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:45 PM UTC

Highly insightful. The pandemic stimulus isn't the only cause though, more like the icing on the cake. The experimental QE and ZIRP policies probably won't be looked at too kindly 50 years from now when economists are still trying to understand and prevent another "Everything Bubble" from ever forming again.

The next 10-15 years for investors are likely to be much more challenging than the last. How do you navigate such a climate with extreme overvaluation in all asset classes? That's why I'm building sophisticated algotrading models at https://grizzlybulls.com to help determine when to hedge and produce positive absolute returns regardless of market environment.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#35

Post by lvl100 » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:45 PM UTC

boboche wrote: post #15

Stopped reading at “tesla is a car company”. When I read that, it shows how little research has been done and not trusting anything else. Hate and downvote all you want, anyone who did basic research on the company, IP, and execution knows how bad that narrative will age. Its not about loving or hating Elon, its simple business. While the P/E compression during a recession is completely normal, and yes, Tesla is over…

OK, but you realize you can say that about all the big techs now? Google is not an ad company. It’s really an “AI” company with far more valuable R&D. Same with Facebook.

If we are looking at tech companies purely from research assets accrued, I have to say Facebook is a bargain here. And even more so with Google.

Tesla on the other hand is more of a marketing company. Their R&D spend does not match all the hype. If they’re rolling out a revolutionary humanoid robot, I have to think that’s going to cost them more than $2B per year to develop.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#36

Post by giantg2 » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:47 PM UTC

thrown_22 wrote: post #19

throw0101a wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Instead of giving people money to chase goods stuck in ports the government should have spent that money on building up infrastructure and have people out doors away from covid. This statement makes no sense: even (most? all?) construction was shut down during (pre-vaccine) 2020 for periods of time to reduce the spread of COVID. At least it was where I was. Further, the people staying at home were often in the serv…

>This statement makes no sense: even (most? all?) construction was shut down during (pre-vaccine) 2020 for periods of time to reduce the spread of COVID. At least it was where I was. Yes, and? All it would have taken was to call them vital workers, or whatever the local equivalent was, and they could have kept working. That was a political decision and covid still spread among vital workers. Adding construction would…

"Unless people start getting physically in the way of each other more people on a site means the project gets done faster."

Have you worked construction?

If they're clueless, then they will slow you down with mistakes and questions/training. Not to mention many parts of construction require skilled trades (electric, plumbing, carpentry, masonry, etc), some of which require licenses.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#37

Post by TedDoesntTalk » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:47 PM UTC

zeckalpha wrote: post #11

mxschumacher wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> a couple stimulus checks You might want to take at the numbers involved (this is just the US, other countries also had huge packages): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Rescue_Plan_Act_of_20... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CARES_Act

About 10k per person?

Don’t forget the two rounds of PPP grants to businesses. They were called loans but they are grants because they do not need to be repaid in most cases.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#38

Post by lvl100 » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:49 PM UTC

In the past few weeks, Nasdaq top 100 lost something like $4T in value which is more than what we lost back in 2020. That’s a lot of money. And also consider the money lost in crypto. People are going to be more prudent with their spend and money.

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#39

Post by giantg2 » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:49 PM UTC

thrown_22 wrote: post #24

nebula8804 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s. You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extingui…

>The left frequently cites FDR and how things turned around after the people had enough and were at the breaking point. The New Deal did very little to stop the great depression until WWII started. People forget that everything in the New Deal was still too little too late and it was only fixed when the federal government debt was 20% of the US economy for 5 years between 1941 and 1946.

I forget the details, but wasn't a major part of the issue that they tried to address it from a fiscal point of view and largely ignored or used the wrong monetary policies?

Re: The Pandemic Boom Goes Bust

#40

Post by simonh » Sat, Jan 29, 2022, 1:49 PM UTC

geofft wrote: post #29

drexlspivey wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's naive to say that 6 TRILLION dollars of stimulus and a sharp rise in inflation that followed it is unrelated

But most of that stimulus didn't end up in the hands of consumers . People weren't purchasing Pelotons with $600 stimulus checks. The sort of person who has nothing better to spend an extra $600 on than a Peloton is the sort of person who wasn't eligible for the stimulus in the first place. (I do fully agree that stay-at-home orders motivated some purchases, though - but again, the sort of people who could actually s…

Your example only works if both countries use the same currency. If they don't the country suffering inflation will have a devalued currency, so their buying power relative to the other country will have collapsed.