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A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

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Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#31

Post by Arainach »

macintux wrote: post #24
LeoPanthera wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a preppers fantasy, not reality. Engines and generators would not suddenly stop working. Any electronics inside even a lightly shielded building (or even just a grounded metal case) would survive. It would suck for a short time - but only a short time.

Isn’t the big concern around transformers? Every time this topic (or EMPs) comes up, the concern is raised that there are effectively no spare transformers (relative on a global scale) available and that building new ones takes years.

It's certainly a significant problem, and one that would cause some intense short-term pain, AND one that we should just bite the trivial cost and make a spare set somewhere for, but......

It would take years in normal times. In a crisis like this, you'd see resources allocated to transformers on the scale of (perhaps greater than) that allocated to COVID-19 vaccines and PPE, and that time scale would almost certainly be dramatically reduced.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#32

Post by macintux »

Arainach wrote: post #31
macintux wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t the big concern around transformers? Every time this topic (or EMPs) comes up, the concern is raised that there are effectively no spare transformers (relative on a global scale) available and that building new ones takes years.

It's certainly a significant problem, and one that would cause some intense short-term pain, AND one that we should just bite the trivial cost and make a spare set somewhere for, but...... It would take years in normal times. In a crisis like this, you'd see resources allocated to transformers on the scale of (perhaps greater than) that allocated to COVID-19 vaccines and PPE, and that time scale would almost certainl…

After what Texas experienced, a dramatic reduction hardly seems sufficient.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#33

Post by toss1 »

xeromal wrote: post #28
weagle05 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I too would be interested to view these models. Coming from a rural background, people in my hometown still have gardens and hunt/fish. We're one, maybe two, generations removed from people producing most of their own food. I don't see how cities deal when they can't refrigerate food and the supply chain is interrupted.

Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. I don't see how it can fall apart of it's mostly self sustaining. There are still loads of people in my hometown that don't have power. What are they gonna lose if society falls apart? lol Lots of the local trucks run on vegetable oil so they don't even need a working supply chain for diesel. It'll be an inconvenience but it's no death. On top of that, a huge amount hunt and fish lik…

For sure, a lot of rural people are much closer to and have actual living practical knowledge of farming and hunting. However, I wonder if there are really enough resources to support them. Two concerns, short term and long term.

Short term, depending on the season, it could be over a year before sustainable crops can be grown to eat. Best case, it happens in early spring, and everyone can go immediately till and plant as many acres as possible, presuming they have the seeds. And the stored fuel and sufficient labor to prepare the extra ground, fell trees and turn them to fields, etc. Even then, what is the fastest-maturing crop, 10 weeks? A long few months to live on the scraps in your no-longer-working refrigerator. And if it happens too late in the growing season? yikes, but less bad for those in more temperate climates.

Hunting? If everyone even in small towns started hunting for food, including out of season, most food species would be hunted to local extinction in short order.

Longer term, is there really enough to sustain more than a small population? I recall one rule of thumb of 20+ acres/household just to have wood to heat with (an acre/year, 20 years to regrow). With little tech, we'd pretty quickly be back to 98% of the population doing primarily farming activities.

Cities? Sure, everyone would help each other, but what other things stop working when there is no electricity? Water, refrigeration, fuel pumps, heating systems. The populations of cities are so dependent on just-in-time or constant supplies, I have a hard time seeing how they survive in any numbers unless massive aid can be immediately mobilized and sustained, which would be very tough if all the cities are out of power at once...

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#34

Post by vmception »

1cvmask wrote: post #2

It would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essentials. Other societies might ration resources on a need basis.

Enough of us have paper wallets and easily regenerable mnemonic phrases.

Some people will be able to trade for essentials at arbitrarily large amounts.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#37

Post by kadoban »

vmception wrote: post #34
1cvmask wrote: post #2

It would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essentials. Other societies might ration resources on a need basis.

Enough of us have paper wallets and easily regenerable mnemonic phrases. Some people will be able to trade for essentials at arbitrarily large amounts.

You're saying that in the event of a worldwide, extended loss of power and communications, the currency you'll use will be the one that only exists, in any useful form, on a worldwide communications network, using loads of power? What am I missing?

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#38

Post by vmception »

kadoban wrote: post #37
vmception wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enough of us have paper wallets and easily regenerable mnemonic phrases. Some people will be able to trade for essentials at arbitrarily large amounts.

You're saying that in the event of a worldwide, extended loss of power and communications, the currency you'll use will be the one that only exists, in any useful form, on a worldwide communications network, using loads of power? What am I missing?

you are missing that:

a) an immediate steep drop in difficult will allow the network to resolve transactions without loads of power, and the few nodes online will still comprise the network. some networks have much longer difficulty adjustment periods and they will be debilitated for months as blocks will not come, other networks have much shorter adjustment periods and will generate new blocks in minutes

b) that transactions can be signed offline and broadcast eventually, far far in the future.

c) alternatively, in a temporarily trusted environment, physical notes with private keys can be handed to someone else in exchange for goods and services. anybody can check the current balance with their own copy of the chain state without the internet, the date/block height of the physical notes balance should be stated alongside the note and anybody with a chain after that block height can verify it. if a provider really wants the latest copy of the chain to accept these notes, order it on a physical disk shipped to you and verify the checksum with multiple sources.

d) this means the user can exchange for goods and services without the internet, and the people that are still connected to other nodes such as a radio tower or internet cafe can act as tellers at banks and broadcast transactions periodically for people.

better than trading bottlecaps.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#39

Post by kadoban »

vmception wrote: post #38
kadoban wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're saying that in the event of a worldwide, extended loss of power and communications, the currency you'll use will be the one that only exists, in any useful form, on a worldwide communications network, using loads of power? What am I missing?

you are missing that: a) an immediate steep drop in difficult will allow the network to resolve transactions without loads of power, and the few nodes online will still comprise the network. some networks have much longer difficulty adjustment periods and they will be debilitated for months as blocks will not come, other networks have much shorter adjustment periods and will generate new blocks in minutes b) that tra…

The network would either fragment or die. Depending on how many local/regional networks still exist or are brought up, there would be too many forks to count and then any spends are impossible to really rely on, or just no stable forks at all.

You can sign things offline, sure, but you can't really verify them. I could spend the same coins a thousand times if the people accepting them can't reliably check for verifications using the same consistent chain.

I don't even understand how the scheme in "c" would work to be honest, and I have a decent background in crypto and cryptocoins. How many people are going to be able to make that work?

I just can't see any of that happening. I'd expect a combination of a barter economy, some precious metals and whatever physical currency is around.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#40

Post by throwawaysea »

Depending solely on electricity is a bad idea. In a past weather event that lead to a power loss for nearly two weeks, everyone I knew was thankful to have piped natural gas. I am not sure I trust electric cars and fully electric homes to be sufficiently redundant.
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