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A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

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Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#21

Post by xeromal »

XorNot wrote: post #18
xeromal wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think major cities would fall apart but I can speak from experience that the where I grew up in the deep south would fare just fine. Still lots of old world knowledge left to keep local farms and towns running. Of course it would be the stone age but a lot of people live for it there.

Models of major disruptions from other countries don't support this. In general, urban areas do quite well because neighbors and communities look after each other, whereas as isolated communities fall over as soon as they run out of something. Distribution is also easier in the cities due to population density. In general there's a fiction pushed by people who live in lower density areas that somehow they're tougher…

Fair enough. I don't have the data to back it up. What countries do you have as examples for me to inform myself with?

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#22

Post by blamestross »

sci_prog wrote: post #9

I wonder if there's a Paleo-proxy or some kind of natural record that could be used to trace the frequency and magnitude of these events throughout Earth's geological past and if anyone is looking into it? For example we can look at the ocean sediments (usually by measuring changes in isotopic ratio of different compounds) and infer a great deal on temperature, carbon cycling, polar reversal, ocean circulation, chemi…

The moon might be better for that.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#23

Post by mc32 »

1cvmask wrote: post #2

It would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essentials. Other societies might ration resources on a need basis.

The more interesting thing to know is whether military sats are shielded enough for these events and who would come out better after one.

There’d be advantages for the one with the most remaining capability.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#24

Post by macintux »

LeoPanthera wrote: post #4
1cvmask wrote: post #2

It would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essentials. Other societies might ration resources on a need basis.

This is a preppers fantasy, not reality. Engines and generators would not suddenly stop working. Any electronics inside even a lightly shielded building (or even just a grounded metal case) would survive. It would suck for a short time - but only a short time.

Isn’t the big concern around transformers? Every time this topic (or EMPs) comes up, the concern is raised that there are effectively no spare transformers (relative on a global scale) available and that building new ones takes years.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#26

Post by weagle05 »

xeromal wrote: post #21
XorNot wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Models of major disruptions from other countries don't support this. In general, urban areas do quite well because neighbors and communities look after each other, whereas as isolated communities fall over as soon as they run out of something. Distribution is also easier in the cities due to population density. In general there's a fiction pushed by people who live in lower density areas that somehow they're tougher…

Fair enough. I don't have the data to back it up. What countries do you have as examples for me to inform myself with?

I too would be interested to view these models. Coming from a rural background, people in my hometown still have gardens and hunt/fish. We're one, maybe two, generations removed from people producing most of their own food. I don't see how cities deal when they can't refrigerate food and the supply chain is interrupted.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#27

Post by o-__-o »

King-Aaron wrote: post #17
LeoPanthera wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a preppers fantasy, not reality. Engines and generators would not suddenly stop working. Any electronics inside even a lightly shielded building (or even just a grounded metal case) would survive. It would suck for a short time - but only a short time.

I have wondered about this. From my understanding the reason main power lines etc are affected is that the long cables turn into an antenna of sorts which allows induction to occur from the CMe. So things like small electronics etc shouldn't be affected. However, that's where I wonder about the "shouldn't" part. Wouldn't a large CME like this cause excessive power surges, which modern electronics don't respond well t…

You need a better ground and surge protector if nearby lightening strikes are frying your electronics. I would assume an EMP/CME event would also be covered so long as it doesn’t surpass the rating of your protector (assuming whole house suppressor or battery backup, your wimpy surge protector strip probably won’t survive)

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#28

Post by xeromal »

weagle05 wrote: post #26
xeromal wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough. I don't have the data to back it up. What countries do you have as examples for me to inform myself with?

I too would be interested to view these models. Coming from a rural background, people in my hometown still have gardens and hunt/fish. We're one, maybe two, generations removed from people producing most of their own food. I don't see how cities deal when they can't refrigerate food and the supply chain is interrupted.

Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. I don't see how it can fall apart of it's mostly self sustaining. There are still loads of people in my hometown that don't have power. What are they gonna lose if society falls apart? lol

Lots of the local trucks run on vegetable oil so they don't even need a working supply chain for diesel. It'll be an inconvenience but it's no death.

On top of that, a huge amount hunt and fish like you said and have hundreds of pounds of meat for a year or two with only 2-4 deer which breed like locusts.

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