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Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

nytimes.com

31–40 of 223 posts

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#31

Ah, well in that case I guess it's a sure bet that we'll reach it. Betting against the experts hasn't been such a bad idea through this whole dismal ordeal. Let's hope, anyway, because that second shot is a doozy and I sure don't want to have to repeat that every year. I suspect, though, if this does become endemic, they'll tweak the dosage a bit of the vaccine, and it might be akin to only needing the first shot (wh…

The first and second shots have identical formulas and doses.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#32
post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? I think it is more complicated than just education. The general sentiment I hear from people is in the past we were told that once we get vaccinated we could return to normal. Now we are told we still need…

>People are losing faith in the scientists because of their ever changing statements.

I'd say this perfectly illustrates the complete lack of understanding of how science works among the public. There is never one specific stance that will always be right and hold up to all scrutiny. It's just highly intelligent educated experts giving their best possible estimate based on current data. As the data evolves, so do the recommendations. People not understanding this is the root of the "experts know nothing" insanity.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#33

I wanted to add that a lot of the people I know who are “vaccine hesitant” are just waiting a little longer to see how things go. I don’t see a whole lot of representation of folks who intend to get the vaccine this summer when I read publications and articles about it, but I would wager that there’s more people intending to get it but not quite yet than we think.

So in other words, people like that want to wait and see how it goes for all of the expendable people before they try it themselves, because they're the protagonist of reality.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#34
post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? It's not an education problem and while most comments I predict will consider that the main factor, I disagree and consider it a condescending take. We all learn about Louis Pasteur and successful eradicati…

The mixed messaging was because previous studies on influenza showed that the increased occurrence of touching one's face to adjust a mask outweighed the benefit of cloth masks. As covid-specific studies were done, it was found that masks were effective, and so the message changed.

I agree that the well was poisoned in the first quarter of 2020, but strongly disagree as to the cause of that. Donald Trump publicly, repeatedly, and strongly downplayed the severity of the pandemic. He dismissed masks as something that he himself wouldn't wear. He continually said that the pandemic was a hoax that would magically disappear. He made public safety measures into a political issue, and the Republican party allowed it to happen.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#35
I'd love if someone broke down _reasons_ for vaccine hesitancy. It seems like the strategies we should develop for addressing them would be different, and that there shouldn't be a one-size-fits-all strategy, as we're trying to do today.

So far, I personally have encountered the following viewpoints in my family and peer group (none of which I share) - in decreasing order of how much credence I'll give them:

1. I'm pregnant and don't know what it does to my baby.

2. I do not think the vaccine is safe, because we developed it too fast. Corollary: blood clots in two of them are my proof.

3. I agree the vaccine is safe and effective, but it was made with "aborted babies" [actually: stem cell lines, as are many vaccines that I'm sure they _have_ taken], and I will not take it on religious grounds.

4. I will not take the vaccine on principle, as it constitutes government overreach into our lives. It is irrelevant whether it is safe or effective.

That's not to speak of some of the other egregious ones I've heard that people believe, like the vaccine having an ICE tracker embedded in it to enable roundups (https://www.boston25news.com/news/health/local-leaders-vacci...).

Given that all of the communication I've seen has centered around safety and effectiveness, it seems like two out of these four cases are not being addressed.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#36

I wanted to add that a lot of the people I know who are “vaccine hesitant” are just waiting a little longer to see how things go. I don’t see a whole lot of representation of folks who intend to get the vaccine this summer when I read publications and articles about it, but I would wager that there’s more people intending to get it but not quite yet than we think.

How much longer do these people need to wait? Tens (if not hundreds) of millions of people have now received the vaccine.

It's more likely that they'll never get it because later on they'll think "well, I've gone this long without getting it and I've been fine, why get it now?"

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#38
post #15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes from what I have seen its an education problem. The people I know who are reluctant have no clear idea how vaccines work or a good grasp of statistics. They generally seem to be ok with taking the risk of getting the virus but perceive a higher risk with taking a new vaccine even though the evidence is to the contrary. Most of these people are on the anti-vax, all natural, anti-gmo, wifi and microwaves cause canc…

I'd say that the resentment comes from having been screwed over in the past, like with Thalidomide. I'm not saying that the vaccines are unsafe, but the whole Corona Industry is suspect. Loads of ffp masks without actual certifications, ffp masks that are contaminated and have to be recalled, etc.

How many people are citing thalidomide vs. just reposting conspiracy theories like "china virus," though? These people's opinions don't come from caution after a careful analysis of literature or past events. It comes from reading clickbait online that plays into their psychology.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#39
post #36

I wanted to add that a lot of the people I know who are “vaccine hesitant” are just waiting a little longer to see how things go. I don’t see a whole lot of representation of folks who intend to get the vaccine this summer when I read publications and articles about it, but I would wager that there’s more people intending to get it but not quite yet than we think.

How much longer do these people need to wait? Tens (if not hundreds) of millions of people have now received the vaccine. It's more likely that they'll never get it because later on they'll think "well, I've gone this long without getting it and I've been fine, why get it now?"

You have it exactly right, this is just the current excuse. The excuse will change as time goes on.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#40
This story is also an example of the conflicting stories we get out of leaders? How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity? They were saying we needed that just last summer!

That loss of trust in giving us correct/congruent information from leaders is absolutely hurting America right now

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