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The end of Facebook

blogs.forbes.com

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Re: The end of Facebook

#31

Post by eiji »

tritchey wrote: post #17

My comment would be that the author is conflating growth in users and page views to revenue growth. While the two are very highly correlated, they are not the same thing. How Facebook monetizes its users and page views doesn't have to be a 1:1 relationship. The question should be how Facebook will derive ever more revenue from each user over time. Slowing user growth is certainly an easy proxy to use in lieu of real…

Yes, there is oversimplification, but one observation I believe is correct:

IPO in 2012 is too late.

People will cash in their options by the dozens and move on. If you IPO at peak, this effect is multiplied. If you IPO way before that peak, some might leave, but since the stock is still going up, they will continue to work those 12 hours a day for you.

However, I'm no expert on this stuff! It's just what I would do.

Re: The end of Facebook

#32

Post by regomodo »

choko wrote: post #9
wccrawford wrote: post #2

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Why wouldn't people just give up on social networks? I think a lot of people initially sign up because a lot of their real-life friends do, use it for a while, and then get bored. To me, sites like facebook just become a hassle after a while. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels the same way.

Exactly, like myself, i've noticed a lot less noise from my friends on facebook. In my circle people use FB considerably less than when I first used it 5years ago.

Re: The end of Facebook

#33

Post by lloeki »

cageface wrote: post #29
corin_ wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and no - personally I closed my Facebook account while becoming much more active on Twitter. No, it wasn't a direct replacement for me, and my reasons for using both services were very different, but the fact that I don't find Facebook useful doesn't mean I don't find any type of "social networking" useful.

I'm finding Twitter of at least some limited use too. The big difference is that I don't follow my "friends", I follow people that know a lot about things I find professionally and artistically interesting, most of whom I'll probably never meet in person.

"Facebook is about people you were friend with, Twitter is about people you wish you'd be friend with"

-- approximate quote from someone I can't recall

This is not quite exact in reality, but I think it captured the difference in essence between the two social platforms.

Re: The end of Facebook

#34

Post by jetz »

possibilistic wrote: post #24
rkwz wrote: post #4

So, what problems do facebook/social networks solve? * sharing photos * keeping in touch with friends and families and getting the latest updates from them * events * games * sharing links and stuff and all these things from one place! is there any other site/technology that provides all these benefits in one place?

The problem is, after an extended use maybe we feel sick of it all. Facebook was new and fresh when it arrived, but now it's beginning to feel like an overstayed welcome. They have accomplished the goal of making life seem, in a way, commoditized, and that makes me feel like I never want to use such a service again. I don't think social networks are going to be entirely displaced, maybe just the ones that attempt to…

People feel sick because it add and adds and adds and become too much to handle. UI become bloated. And after some time you're done.

What you described as future SNs are actually more history Usenet, IRC, Well, Prodigy, AOL, Geocities and so on. Yes communities will always be there but SNs are solving a different problem. SNs are more about socializing with your friends than talking what's happening with Rails project lately.

Re: The end of Facebook

#35

Post by pixpax »

This recent spurt of articles about how Facebook is supposedly declining is based entirely on the Facebook self service ad tool as far as I can tell. An initial study of the numbers that the tool was reporting back was compared more recently and the differences supposedly indicate drop off in numbers.

None of the subsequent articles that I've read seem to mention how the data was gathered, just that Facebook has lost X amount of users in Y country. I for one dont think that Facebook's publicly accessible ad tool is a very sophisticated or accurate way of measuring FB's user numbers.

Re: The end of Facebook

#36

Post by hvs »

makeramen wrote: post #8

This was a rather pointless article. Yes, every company will reach a point where growth slows. Yes, every company will have users who quit. Yes, valuations are high right now. Yes, many companies will get replaced by better ones that come along. And yes, it is implied that Facebook is a company. How does any of this lead to "the end of facebook"?? The author even states "Facebook is still growing very fast in terms o…

I completely agree, but one point that he briefly mentions that I think is even more interesting is the idea of a Facebook IPO.

Consider that Facebook isn't going anywhere (most likely) and will be a major company for a long time. That still doesn't change the fact that if they've already done all of the their major growing (user-wise, I'm assuming that they will continue to look for new revenue sources), their IPO could be a significant letdown for investors if there is simply no where to go but flat.

That said, I don't know any more (or less) that this guy..

Re: The end of Facebook

#37

Post by [deleted] »

JonnieCache wrote: post #3

This is borne out by my experience. A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. This might just be due to my cohort of friends getting older, but the article claims it is a general trend. What is definitely true, is that nobody I know feels anything positive about facebook, at all. It is seen simply as a sinister, addictive[1] necessary evil. This is the case regardles…

[deleted]

Re: The end of Facebook

#39

Post by bxr »

JonnieCache wrote: post #3

This is borne out by my experience. A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. This might just be due to my cohort of friends getting older, but the article claims it is a general trend. What is definitely true, is that nobody I know feels anything positive about facebook, at all. It is seen simply as a sinister, addictive[1] necessary evil. This is the case regardles…

A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving.

I know what they say about the plural of antidote, but I've personally noticed the same. I use it less, and when I do use it, I notice the people I care about on facebook are using it less too. Everything you say mirrors the response to facebook I've been seeing. Its no longer a toy, its just that thing you have and slowly working towards being a burden.

I think a post I saw about facebook email says it the best: "Facebook, you're giving me email? You're now one ugly paintjob away from being aol". Its initially funny, but the parallels you can draw between AOL and Facebook are huge and I wouldn't be surprised if facebook followed a similar trajectory.

Re: The end of Facebook

#40

Post by gravityiscool »

For some reason all this makes me grind my teeth. I'm not a Facebook apologist, and I definitely don't side with the 'FB is utter shit' camp, but it just seems like articles like this, and so much of the discussion they generate, totally sail past the point of what the rise of social networking (and the rise of these dissatisfactions) signifies.

This article: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100092236/is-th... the article the link leeches off, is more fleshed out but also has some 300 comments. Most of it is inane but somewhere in there in all the shit people are talking and all the haughty know-it-all declarations of what is and isn't worthwhile, and what will and will not occur in the future, there's something really significant encapsulated about how our society is changing, and how Facebook and the internet is linked in to that change. There's a big clue in all this discussion - but these newspaper 'experts' sure as shit aren't going to point it out for us.

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