Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

blog.waymo.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 182 posts

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#31

Post by mindslight »

spike021 wrote: post #20
Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

> I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant.

I know we're talking about California here, but the other straightforward explanation is that self driving cars are braking unpredictably compared to regular traffic, possibly when other drivers have judged that they wouldn't possibly need to brake.

Such accidents are only the fault of the rear car in a simplistic prima facie sense. Unexpectedly stomping on one's brakes in a fit of road rage is generally seen as causing any resulting accident, as should overzealous braking by a self driving vehicle that isn't following the norms of the road.

For example, from the Waymo report of February 16, 2021:

> While in autonomous mode, the Waymo AV was stopped at a red traffic light at the unprotected intersection of 16th Street and Market Street. After the traffic light turned green, the Waymo AV began to proceed and then came to a stop as it yielded to oncoming traffic also entering the intersection. A passenger vehicle behind the Waymo AV then made contact with the stationary Waymo AV’s rear bumper

This could have been the Waymo turning left and needing to yield to oncoming traffic, OR it could have been the Waymo going straight through the intersection and slamming on its brakes due to someone coming in from the right that hadn't stopped before the Waymo's judgement margin. It seems impossible to tell from the accident report, but the two have very different root cause analyses.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#32

Post by walrus01 »

spike021 wrote: post #20
Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

> I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant.

If I had a dollar for every person I see driving around in thick rain, or in full darkness with their lights off, I could probably buy a nice new macbook air.

It's truly shocking how many people are far from alert and observant while driving. Either because they really don't care, or they've been conditioned to take driving very casually.

I use the number of cars I see driving with their lights off as sort of a gauge of how many 'bad' drivers might be on the road, in a 4-5km radius, at any given time... And it's a percentage that is too damn high. My working theory being that if people are putting a car into gear and getting into traffic without checking that their lights are on first, they're probably far from alert and ready in all other driving scenarios as well.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#33

Post by Swizec »

saalweachter wrote: post #24
Swizec wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Figure 3 almost looks like the responder is lagging. Feels like it slows down and speeds up in several places. Assuming that’s not a gif/video rendering bug, it’s a great way to get rear-ended.

Here's the semi-annual reminder to everyone that you are probably following too closely, and this is exactly why you shouldn't. The rule of thumb is that you want 3-4 seconds between cars, which at highway speeds is 80-100 meters or yards. Yes, almost no one leaves that much room. That's part of why so many accidents happen. It's easy for you to do better.

I leave plenty of space for this exact reason. Doubly important on a motorcycle because we have less grip.

My point was more that the gif looks choppy and I don’t think that’s how the car actually drives. Imagine being a passenger in a car that brakes hard and accelerates every 2 meters while approaching an intersection.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#34

Post by SkyPuncher »

spike021 wrote: post #20
Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

> I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant.

I know everyone considers themselves to be a good driver. I consider myself to be a relatively good driver and generally keep very conservative follow distances (no reason to be on someones bumper).

Even when paying attention, I've been in situations where I've had to apply the brakes harder than I should have to avoid a rear end. Sometimes you just don't read the situation correctly and need to play catchup.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#35

Post by hardtke »

mindvirus wrote: post #17

This is really cool. I suspect that when we have self driving cars, it's going to take off very quickly due to insurance. In particular, if you are in a non self driving car and in an accident with a self driving one, it'll be hard to not be shown as at fault. So insurance I would guess go up based on the percentage of self driving cars, and likely be really cheap for self driving cars. I wonder if there's a period t…

I suspect the adoption process will be slow because consumers really don't want this product. Self driving cars will drive the speed limit and infuriate both other motorists and their owners who are getting passed by speeding human driven cars. There will also be well publicized stories of the few times that self driving cars perform worse than humans. All drivers think they are above average and therefore the statistical comparison to the average driver does not apply to them.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#36

Post by upbeat_general »

rwcarlsen wrote: post #25
Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

Solving the automated driving problem will require these systems to behave in ways that regular human drivers consider acceptable - at least for a transition period of time where both live on the road together. Sudden hard breaking in situations that humans see absolutely no need for it is an unacceptable behavior for human drivers to have. Just because it's not your fault doesn't mean you can't do things to prevent…

I’m speculating here but it’s possible that the waymo vehicle being rear ended is an optimal outcome here. If the waymo vehicle would have otherwise collided with a car in the intersection it would probably be a much worse crash than a rear end with a low/moderate relative velocity.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#37

Post by jeffbee »

Swizec wrote: post #33
saalweachter wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the semi-annual reminder to everyone that you are probably following too closely, and this is exactly why you shouldn't. The rule of thumb is that you want 3-4 seconds between cars, which at highway speeds is 80-100 meters or yards. Yes, almost no one leaves that much room. That's part of why so many accidents happen. It's easy for you to do better.

I leave plenty of space for this exact reason. Doubly important on a motorcycle because we have less grip. My point was more that the gif looks choppy and I don’t think that’s how the car actually drives. Imagine being a passenger in a car that brakes hard and accelerates every 2 meters while approaching an intersection.

Waymo does not drive like that. It's smooth, actually. Watch this guy's channel for daily videos of how the driver behaves in practice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eq-QndXs-nI

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#38

Post by dawnerd »

hardtke wrote: post #35
mindvirus wrote: post #17

This is really cool. I suspect that when we have self driving cars, it's going to take off very quickly due to insurance. In particular, if you are in a non self driving car and in an accident with a self driving one, it'll be hard to not be shown as at fault. So insurance I would guess go up based on the percentage of self driving cars, and likely be really cheap for self driving cars. I wonder if there's a period t…

I suspect the adoption process will be slow because consumers really don't want this product. Self driving cars will drive the speed limit and infuriate both other motorists and their owners who are getting passed by speeding human driven cars. There will also be well publicized stories of the few times that self driving cars perform worse than humans. All drivers think they are above average and therefore the statis…

> because consumers really don't want this product

> Self driving cars will drive the speed limit

Tesla is proving both to be false, today.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#39

Post by potatochup »

Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

AEB is great, and I'm super happy that it's going to be standard, but its not going to totally eliminate the rear-ending problem. From wikipedia [1]:

> Forward collision warning plus autobrake is associated to a 50% decrease in front to rear crashes.

Similar stats are reported from around the world.

Low friction surfaces, weird car angles, poor radar/camera visibility and too high entry speed all mean the system isn't going to be 100% effective.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collision_avoidance_system

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#40

Post by saalweachter »

jeffbee wrote: post #37
Swizec wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I leave plenty of space for this exact reason. Doubly important on a motorcycle because we have less grip. My point was more that the gif looks choppy and I don’t think that’s how the car actually drives. Imagine being a passenger in a car that brakes hard and accelerates every 2 meters while approaching an intersection.

Waymo does not drive like that. It's smooth, actually. Watch this guy's channel for daily videos of how the driver behaves in practice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eq-QndXs-nI

Worth noting these are also animations of exceptional circumstances.

There's that little qualifier that "in the vast majority of events" it drove smoothly while avoiding the simulated fatal crash.

Now ideally, they'll be able to iterate to go from "vast majority" to "all" ... but if my future self-driving car drives smoothly most of the time, but I occasionally experience it braking suddenly or swerving without warning, and it is avoiding a fatal crash by doing so, I'm not going to complain.

Of course, if it periodically slams on the brakes because an empty plastic bag blows into the road or some other false positive for a potentially fatal collision ... I'n a little curious what the acceptable false positive rate is on potentially fatal car crashes. Would I (or others) accept 10 random brakings per necessary braking? More, less?

Post reply on HN