Why limit simulations to fatal crashes instead of all reported crashes?
How could they recreate every crash that's happened? It seems the police only keep detailed records of the fatal crashes that happened there.
Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
21–30 of 182 posts
Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
#22Why limit simulations to fatal crashes instead of all reported crashes?
How could they recreate every crash that's happened? It seems the police only keep detailed records of the fatal crashes that happened there.
Anyway, one would think with SDVs that there'd be an explosion in data for this kind of thing, since the cars will witness and participate in many more close calls than could ever be reported or tracked by anyone, much less the police. I wonder how much Google is able to process their car data for these kinds of things? Potentially it could be a huge aid, not even just for law enforcement, but also for urban planners looking for the close call hotspots.
Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
#23You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…
>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…
Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
#24Figure 3 has the responder slowing unusually soon. Makes me wonder if their model is overly fit to the sample. Still, if it's genuinely that good at responding and mitigating then the future looks bright.
Figure 3 almost looks like the responder is lagging. Feels like it slows down and speeds up in several places. Assuming that’s not a gif/video rendering bug, it’s a great way to get rear-ended.
The rule of thumb is that you want 3-4 seconds between cars, which at highway speeds is 80-100 meters or yards.
Yes, almost no one leaves that much room. That's part of why so many accidents happen. It's easy for you to do better.
Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
#25You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…
Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
#26You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…
>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…
So if 99.9999% of the time, when a car in front starts to accelerate, and doesn't slam on the breaks immediately after, the brain makes the assumption that the care in front will never slam on the breaks and devotes less brain-CPU time to "Oh No, that care in front just slammed on the breaks" processing.
In general, human drivers don't do this unless they are very inexperienced. You don't mash on the gas and immediately mash on the breaks, instead you make sure there is nothing coming. If you can't see well enough that there is something coming, then you ease up slowly and only mash on the gas when you have enough information that you won't get side swiped going through the intersection.
And yes, intersections that have a "stop line" far enough back that you can't see cross traffic are poorly designed. Or if cars are really expected to stop every time before a crosswalk, then advance 2 feet to stop again, this needs better enforcement so that activity becomes normalized to the point where the car behind would expect that (one way of doing this is to put two stop signs, one before the sidewalk, and one at the intersection).
Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
How could they recreate every crash that's happened? It seems the police only keep detailed records of the fatal crashes that happened there.
"The simulations were not conducted independently of the company, nor were they reviewed by any third-party for verification prior to the company making them public." from https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/8/22315361/waymo-autonomous-...
"This research was made possible because of the thorough crash reports the Chandler Police Department and Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) prepare following fatal crashes, and we’re grateful to ADOT, Chandler Police Department, and Arizona Department of Public Safety for making these reports available to the public upon request."
Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
#28What do you call that when you subconsciously suppress any tests or scenarios you know will break your code? Like you notice somethings kinda racey but it involves other components you don't control and so you don't do the parallel tests you probably should, that kinda thing. Because that is exactly the bad feeling I get with Waymo never actually testing anywhere that doesn't have mm-precise maps and the all importan…
Most people from Southern states will careen off the side when dropped into light snow--I'm exaggerating, but not by a lot.
If the Waymo car does nothing else short of "maintain appropriate following distance" it is already ahead of 90% of all drivers in all weather.
Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
#29You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…
Slamming on the brakes is a flaw. Even if every car on the road had the ability to respond instantly to the car ahead, being forced to brake hard still risks loss of control especially in bad conditions.
Also, having automatic emergency braking on all vehicles is at least decades out. It will never work on motorcycles or scooters or bicycles, period. It cannot be retrofitted onto existing cars. Requiring it for all new cars would require pretty hamfisted regulations. I expect human drivers to be widespread for at least the rest of my life.
Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes
#30This is really cool. I suspect that when we have self driving cars, it's going to take off very quickly due to insurance. In particular, if you are in a non self driving car and in an accident with a self driving one, it'll be hard to not be shown as at fault. So insurance I would guess go up based on the percentage of self driving cars, and likely be really cheap for self driving cars. I wonder if there's a period t…